NFL training camp doesn’t exactly bring full clarity to every question surrounding the 2023 fantasy football season – but damnit it’s something!

What follows is a breakdown on the most-pressing fantasy-relevant question facing all 32 teams ahead of training camp.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Arizona Cardinals

Question: What is the timeline for Kyler Murray (ACL) returning to the field?

There are a number of sources with information on the matter.

  1. Team owner Michael Bidwill stated: “I think (his return) is going to be earlier than this midseason, so hopefully, it’s toward the beginning of the season.”
  2. Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon said Murray made “good progression” in April after being cleared to resume workouts.
  3. Dr. Edwin Porras suggests that his recovery will be (at least) nine months and potentially 10 to 11 months before he’s rushing like normal.
  4. Dr. Jeff Mueller also noted we might not see his rushing upside return until late 2023 or 2024.
  5. Kyler himself set his return goal as Week 1.

Simply the potential for Murray to start double-digit games in 2023 makes him quite the potential late-round darling in fantasy land due to the uncertainty around the situation. There simply isn’t much of a track record of the 25-year-old QB playing professional football and NOT racking up fantasy points.

  • 2022: 18.2 fantasy points per game (QB7)
  • 2021: 21.5 (QB4)
  • 2020: 23.7 (QB4)
  • 2019: 17.8 (QB11)

Murray currently carries QB22 (pick 162.4) ADP; he’ll look like a bargain in a hurry should the Cardinals provide us with some good health news sooner rather than later.

Atlanta Falcons

Question: What position will Cordarrelle Patterson be playing this season?

I am particularly intrigued by the answer here due to my longtime status as the President of the Cordarrelle Patterson fan club — but seriously: The kick return GOAT (I said kicks, not punts, chill out Bears fans) has morphed into more of a full-time RB during his later years, but certainly still has what it takes to line up out wide more often if that’s what his team needs.

While No. 8 overall pick Bijan Robinson has received token offseason hype about spending more time in the slot or out wide himself, it’d make a helluva lot more sense if Patterson finds his way into three-WR sets alongside Drake London and (probably) Mack Hollins.

Some of the other options at WR:

  • Scotty Miller: The ex-Buccaneers field-stretching WR might not have the sort of size (5-foot-9, 174 pounds) to earn an every-down role in this plus-sized offense.
  • Frank Darby: The 2021 sixth-round pick has two catches for 29 scoreless yards in 15 games with the Falcons over the past two seasons.
  • KhaDarel Hodge: The former Browns and Lions receiver posted a 13-202-1 receiving line in 17 games with the Falcons last season, but never played more than 20 snaps in any individual game.
  • Penny Hart: Former Seahawks backup WR has just 11 career receptions since entering the league in 2020.

The Falcons’ run-first offense is far from a guarantee to consistently enable any pass-catcher to high-end fantasy production, but Patterson’s potential role as a dual-threat slasher capable of seeing double-digit combined carries and targets per game could make him a value as a last-round sleeper.

Baltimore Ravens

Question: Just how pass-happy will this Todd Monken-led offense be?

Monken spent 2016 through 2018 as the Buccaneers offensive coordinator and 2019 with the Browns before leading the Georgia Bulldogs offense for the past three seasons.

The middle seasons seem to reflect Monken most at his core: The man loves to throw the football around the yard.

Those offenses ranked 11th, fourth, 11th and eighth in neutral situation pace.

Don’t be surprised if the 2023 Ravens beat, if not crush, their four-year highs of 15th in PROE and 22nd in pace that they achieved under former OC Greg Roman Roman.

This is great news for all parties involved, especially the WRs considering their rather meh fantasy history under Roman. The Ravens’ top-scoring WR in PPR points per game in the Lamar Jackon era (minimum eight games):

  • 2018: John Brown (WR56)
  • 2019: Marquise Brown (WR48)
  • 2020: Brown (WR43)
  • 2021: Brown (WR23)
  • 2022: Devin Duvernay (WR61), Rashod Bateman (WR56) if you go with a minimum of six games

Buffalo Bills

Question: Is the whole “Dalton Kincaid is really a slot WR that is simply designated as a TE” thing real?

Bills general manager Brandon Beane had the following to say on the Bills’ first-round TE:

“We think he'll pair well with Dawson and give us another target in the middle of the field. So, yeah, when him and Dawson are in the game, you're in '12' [personnel], but it's quasi like '11' anyway.”

Basically, Beane is saying that the team’s two-TE formations will be more akin to three-WR sets due to Kincaid’s receiving prowess.

There’s potential for the rookie to essentially work as the offense’s big slot receiver, and this would fit the profile of guys like Jordan Reed, Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts, who are the only three top-12 PPR per game performers at the position over the past 10 years.

Of course, Dawson Knox still exists, and it would hardly be the most shocking thing in the world if three-WR sets typically simply consist of Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and one of Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty or Trent Sherfield.

Figuring out exactly who will be spending the most time next to Diggs and Davis will be vital to figuring out the best late-round sleepers to target inside of the league’s reigning second-ranked scoring offense.

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Carolina Panthers

Question: Will Miles Sanders actually get a three-down workhorse role?

Determining whether or not Sanders gets a true three-down role depends on which offseason quote you want to use:

  1. In April: Sanders said Panthers RB coach Duce Staley was the main reason he signed with the Panthers. “They know I’m a three-down back.”
  2. In February: Staley himself said he believes in using three RBs and noted the position is like being “in a car wreck.”

Sanders did indeed see a far bigger pass-down role when Staley was the Eagles RB coach in 2019 and 2020 (115 targets) compared to 2021 and 2022 (60), although that could also be more of a result of playing next to a high-usage dual-threat QB. It’s also fair to wonder if Sanders regressed as a pass-catcher since then: He joined Derrick Henry as PFF's two worst backs in PFF receiving grade in 2022.

Ultimately, my bigger concern is the reality that Sanders never averaged even 14 carries per game in the 2019 and 2020 seasons under Staley. Those offenses made sure to also keep guys like Jordan Howard and Boston Scott heavily involved; just because Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear aren’t big names doesn’t mean they can’t eat into Sanders’ rushing workload in a major way.

The Panthers obviously paid Sanders plenty of money for a reason, although the history of RBs changing teams in free agency has been rather brutal in recent years.

Sanders’ path to success is seizing the offense’s three-down role, which is possible, but his floor is as the early-down grinder for what sure looks like one of the NFL’s bottom-10 offenses.

Chicago Bears

Question: Who will rise to the top of this muddled committee backfield?

There are only so many true workhorse RBs left in today’s NFL — it’s not a death blow to a player’s stock if they have to share the backfield to some extent. Still, even a small committee can be problematic inside a low-scoring offense like the Bears that simply didn’t afford much fantasy-friendly opportunity in 2022.

Overall, the Bears joined the Panthers as the only two offenses that failed to afford fantasy-friendly opportunities inside the league’s top-24 teams at RB, WR and TE alike in 2022.

Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s offseason comments certainly don’t instill a lot of confidence that he’ll simply lean on Herbert as the featured back in 2023.

One of just four teams to not target their RBs at least 60 times last season, Chicago profiles as one of the league’s least fantasy-friendly offenses for the position ahead of 2023.

Khalil Herbert deserves the nod as the top projected back, while D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson are fine enough late-round darts on rosters deploying a zero-RB-esque strategy. Still, the simple answer to which Bears RB to rely on next season might very well be: no.

Cincinnati Bengals

Question: Will Joe Mixon again be the Bengals’ featured bell-cow back?

Off-the-field and contract concerns led to Mixon being a rumored cut candidate for most of the offseason, but his reworked contact cements the veteran as the Bengals’ No. 1 RB in 2023 and potentially beyond.

The reigning overall RB2 in expected PPR points per game has huge upside should a true every-down role come his way — something that is more possible than ever after Samaje Perine took his talents to Denver.

Of course, the Bengals’ reluctancy to add any sort of real competition to the backfield throughout the offseason could also be a sign that they are waiting to invest in the current free agents available at the position.

Don’t expect Mixon to lose his starting job, but adding a capable pass-blocking/short-yardage talent like Ezekiel Elliiott or Leonard Fournette could dwindle some of those fantasy-friendly opportunities.

Cleveland Browns

Question: Will Nick Chubb finally get the sort of workhorse three-down role that his talents warrant?

It’s a minor miracle how well Chubb has performed in fantasy land considering the extent to which the Browns have refrained from fully featuring him:

  • 2020: RB28 in expected PPR points per game, RB9 real
  • 2021: RB20 expected, RB12 real
  • 2022: RB18 expected, RB8 real

It’s no surprise that Chubb ranks first in PPR points above expectation per game (+3.3) at the position since 2020.

Kareem Hunt remains a free agent and D’Ernest Johnson signed with the Jaguars, meaning Chubb might finally get the sort of three-down role that his extraterrestrial talents deserve.

Presumed No. 2 RB Jerome Ford is reportedly set for a “much larger role this season”; just realize the offense could flow through one of the best RBs in the game far more than usual this year.

Dallas Cowboys

Question: Who is the starting TE in Dallas?

While it’s not a guarantee that head coach Mike McCarthy will involve the TE position as much as ex-offensive coordinator Kellen Moore did, even 90% of Dalton Schultz’s expected PPR points over the years would still be pretty good for fantasy purposes:

  • 2020: 9.6 expected PPR PPG (TE14)
  • 2021: 10.8 expected PPR PPG (TE9)
  • 2022: 11.0 expected PPR PPG (TE5)

Second-round TE Luke Schoonmaker would seemingly profile as the best candidate to assume Schultz’s role, although it’s hardly a given that he works that far ahead of Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot. The Cowboys leaned on both Ferguson (83% snaps, 51%) and Hendershot (59%, 61%) in their two games without Schultz last season.

The fact that Schoonmaker missed offseason activities while dealing with plantar fascia in his foot isn’t helping his day one readiness; Ferguson might just be the favorite to assume early starting duties — which would make him a pretty, pretty, pretty good last-round value in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes.

Denver Broncos

Question: Just how healthy is Javonte Williams (knee)?

Recent news headlines painted Williams as “ready to go” ahead of training camp.

Naturally, the social media world we live in has a tendency to not always explain the full picture. Williams also said this in his latest update:

“It’s just all about the evaluation, how the Broncos feel about it. Just seeing how I feel, moving, just trying to get my speed back to normal, things like that.”

Of course, Sean Payton is already on the record about his preference for using two RBs. It’s likely, if not inevitable, that the newly signed Samaje Perine is also heavily involved in this offense: Payton has NEVER fed an RB 250-plus carries in a single season during his time as head coach.

Full early-season health might not be on the table for Williams, but simply avoiding the PUP list should be seen as a rather major win. Currently going off the board as the RB29 (pick 92.8), Williams would in all likelihood move up the ranks at least a round or two with reports of full participation in training camp.

Detroit Lions

Question: Who will emerge as the offense’s No. 2 and No. 3 WRs?

Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of my top-10 fantasy WRs in the same tier of guys like A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Garrett Wilson. I won’t fight anyone who wants to put the Sun God at the bottom of this tier; just realize there is far too much volume on the table to rank him much lower.

The rest of this group… isn’t great!

  • Jameson Williams is suspended for the first six games of the season. Injury context surrounding his rookie year matters, but the list of first-round WRs who failed to gain even 250 yards in their debut season is littered with busts.
  • Josh Reynolds flashed some upside early in the season with both St. Brown, Williams and D.J. Chark out with injury, but he was relegated to a part-time player down the stretch and had just one game with more than 35 receiving yards after Week 5.
  • Kalif Raymond has flashed some big-play ability during each of his seasons in Detroit, although he joined Reynolds as player reduced to part-time roles down the stretch of last season
  • Marvin Jones turned 33 in March and didn’t receive the sort of big-money deal (one-year, $3 million) that cements a starting spot despite his history with the organization.

This profiles as a three-WR committee alongside St. Brown while Williams is suspended. Perhaps the rising second-year speedster obtains a full-time role the second he’s ready to go, but the Lions declined to give him a snap rate above 25% as a rookie.

Ultimately, Williams is a solid boom-or-bust option who boasts extra value in keeper formats thanks to the potential for his 2024 ADP to be far higher without a looming suspension. He’s the only non-Sun God receiver worth targeting before the late stages of drafts due to the potential for Reynolds, Raymond and Jones to rotate enough to render each as non-viable fantasy options more weeks than not — but any of the latter WRs have the potential to boom up the ranks with a full-time role inside of the league’s reigning fifth-ranked scoring offense.

Green Bay Packers

Question: Will the offense’s day two rookies earn immediate starting spots?

The Packers added a trio of day two picks to their pass-catching core – and for good reason:Green Bay presently ranks 32nd and 27th in 2023 spending at WR and TE, respectively. Michigan State WR Jayden Reed (2.50), Oregon State TE Luke Musgrave (2.42) and South Dakota State TE Tucker Kraft (3.78) could be relied on as full-time offensive starters as early as day one.

The dismal fantasy football history of rookie TEs and head coach Matt LaFleur’s tendency to rotate plenty of bodies at the position has me reluctant to treat Musgrave or Kraft as anything more than correlation-dependent last-round darts.

Reed is a bit more interesting considering the likelihood that he earns a day-one starting role. Dane Brugler’s summary on the latter receiver AKA the Packers’ 2023 second-round pick.

“A three-year starter at Michigan State, Reed was a perimeter receiver in offensive coordinator Jay Johnson’s offense. Although his senior year fell short of expectations because of injuries and the Spartans’ offensive struggles, he accounted for 46 explosive plays (20-plus yards) over the past two seasons and became just the third player in school history with multiple punt return touchdowns in the same season. Reed has outstanding foot quickness and skillfully throttles his route speed to separate from coverage. Despite dropping too many easy ones, his focus is heightened on contested windows, and he shows a knack for timing his leaps and snatching the football off the helmets of defensive backs. Overall, Reed will have a tougher time overcoming his slight size vs. NFL defensive backs, but his speed, route tempo and downfield ball skills are the ingredients of a potential NFL playmaker. With a few technical tweaks to his game, he has NFL starting ability (slot and outside) and adds value as a return man.”

It remains to be seen if this Jordan Love-led offense can enable one — let alone multiple — fantasy-friendy pass-game options, but confirmation that Reed at least has a starting role would help his late-round stock in a major way.

Houston Texans

Question: Who will rise to the top of this CHEAP WR room?

The Texans join the Panthers and Giants as the only offenses without a single WR with an ADP inside of the top-10 rounds of the draft (120 picks):

  • Nico Collins (ADP: WR60, pick 131.4)
  • John Metchie (WR78, 181)
  • Robert Wood (WR86, 205)
  • Tank Dell (WR94, 212.3)
  • Xavier Hutchinson (WR137, 216)

The allure for Collins comes down to the reality that he’s the incumbent leader in the clubhouse for an offense with more available targets and air yards than any other group in the league. The rising third-year receiver proved capable of demanding targets at a high level last season even when sharing the field alongside former No. 1 option Brandin Cooks.

There isn’t another receiver on the roster with Collins’ size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds); he sure looks like the offense’s starting X receiver.

Things get a bit more interesting after this, although Woods seemingly profiles as the offense’s starting Z receiver after fetching $10 million guaranteed in free agency. He’s well versed in this system and is a much cheaper version of Thielen, who is even older and faces similar depth chart competition.

Both Metchie and Dell carry day two draft capital, but it’s unclear if either has a stranglehold on a starting spot.

Indianapolis Colts

Question: Will Anthony Richardson start from day one?

Twenty-one of 26 QBs drafted inside the top-10 went on to start at least 10 games during their rookie season; redshirt years have become increasingly rare in an era when QB evaluation is rushed more than ever.

Assume Richardson beats out Gardner Minshew sooner rather than later: He’s going to be tough to keep out of the position’s top 12 options. Overall, 13 of 14 QBs with 125-plus carries in a season posted top-12 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis. That last part is important: I didn’t just reward the overall finishes for those lucky enough to stay healthy; high-usage rushers at QB join high-volume receiving RBs as the closest things that fantasy football has to cheat codes.

If fading the early-round QB tier, guys like Richardson, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones and a healthy Kyler Murray represent the best bets to provide that alien-level dual-threat production at a drastically reduced cost. I’m a fan of acquiring Richardson at his current eighth- to ninth-round cost, but increased certainty that he will be starting Week 1 could lead to a swift ADP boom.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Question: Just how big of a role will Travis Etienne have in 2023?

The two main issues that could impact ETN’s fantasy upside this season: pass-down work and goal-line usage.

There are some reasons for concern with the former variable. The 25th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft didn’t exactly demonstrate the sort of high-level receiving upside that many thought was on the table. PFF’s fourth-lowest graded RB (49.8) out of 47 qualified backs, Etienne had some bad drops on top of his five fumbles.

Travis Etienne

Jan 14, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) runs during the fourth quarter of a wild card game against the Los Angeles Chargers at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Additionally, I still have not heard a good reason why Jamycal Hasty out-snapped Etienne (35 vs. 26) during the Jaguars’ Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs. Neither team ever led by more than 10 points, and Etienne played a dominant 86% of the offense’s snaps the previous week when the Chargers were down 27 points in the first half. Note that Etienne wasn’t listed on the injury report for either contest and played throughout both games while seemingly not getting injured.

There’s more concern when looking at how Etienne performed in terms of cashing in carries inside the five-yard line into scores. Just four RBs failed to convert at least 30% of their goal line carries into scores among the league’s 25 most-used goal line backs:

  • Devin Singletary (28.6%)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (28.6%)
  • Travis Etienne (20%)
  • Kenneth Walker (11%)

This offseason the Jaguars re-signed Hasty to a two-year, $3.2 million deal and selected 5-foot-11, 210-pound bowling ball Tank Bigsby. Neither are expected to overtake Etienne for lead back duties; just realize there might be more potential here for head coach Doug Pederson to embrace some of his past committee backfield ways than ETN’s current RB14 ADP indicates.

Kansas City Chiefs

Question: Who will emerge as the offense’s No. 1 WR?

The current consensus pick is Kadarius Toney considering the constant drumbeat of praise he’s received all offseason long.

  • February 28: Reid says Toney will probably have a bigger role and is very talented.
  • May 7: Chiefs GM Brett Veach said, “I don’t know if there is a limit on [Kadarius Toney's] game because he has a vertical game. It’s a fair question to [ask]: ‘Has he ever played with a quarterback that likes to push the ball down the field?’ We have a lot of high hopes for him. He was a first-round pick for a reason. There’s a reason why we traded for him and we felt like he was first-round talent.”
  • May 29: ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said the Chiefs believe Toney can be the “No. 1-type receiver” they’re looking for this season.
  • June 1: OC Matt Nagy said Toney is, “Super talented with the football in his hands, and he’s been that way his entire life in his football career.” Nagy noted that Toney now knows the "ins and outs" of the Chiefs' system entering his second season with the team: "He was able to do that, and it’s exciting now for us to be able to take that to Year 2 and build that relationship with (Patrick Mahomes)."
  • July 13: Patrick Mahomes on Toney: "I'm extremely excited. He has all the talent and he works his tail off, like I was talking about with [Travis Kelce]. Obviously, we're going to try to keep him healthy and on the field as much as possible — because when he's on the field, he's a difference maker. ... I think the sky is the limit. He can be one of the best receivers in this league.”

And yet, 2018 Sammy Watkins (11.5, WR35) was the only WR not named Tyreek Hill to average double-digit PPR points per game in a single season between 2016 and 2021.

This passing game proved capable of putting up bonkers numbers without the assistance of a volume-hig WR last year, but any of the team’s WRs are in line to smash ADP with the sort of usage that helped both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman post top-36 finishes in PPR points per game last season.

My pick is Toney, but best believe the likes of Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice and/or Marquez Valdes-Scantling among others will be booming up the ranks with some level of assuredness surrounding a featured role in 2023. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Question: Just how healthy is Jimmy Garoppolo (foot)?

News on the matter was revealed in May, with Raiders beat reporter Tashan Reed noting: “The quarterback's recovery timeline is unknown, but the sense is that the team is confident he'll be ready to play by the start of the regular season.”

Further concern around Garoppolo’s health came to fruition when it was revealed the Raiders can release him without any penalty for “any reason” involving his foot. However, Jimmy G’s $22.5 million salary becomes fully guaranteed once the veteran QB “passes a physical exam, is active for at least one regular-season game, and does not suffer re-injury to his left foot."

Ultimately, it seems awfully unlikely that McDaniels or anyone involved with the Raiders really wants to move forward with 37-year-old Brian Hoyer or fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell under center. McDaniels said he has “no anxiety” surrounding Garoppolo’s status.

Still, it’d be a lot cooler if Garoppolo is ready to go and drafters can more safely get back to drafting Davante Adams in Round 1 with little to no concerns.

Los Angeles Chargers

Question: Who is the No. 2 RB behind Austin Ekeler?

Chargers RBs not named Ekeler accounted for 164 touches in 2022; there’s a decent amount of meat on the bone in this ascending offense for more than one fantasy-viable RB — just like there was back in 2019 when both Ekeler (RB6 in PPR points per game) and Melvin Gordon (RB14) both managed to record top-15 production throughout the season.

Still, nothing about the current crop of backups indicates that one will easily work ahead of the rest. Each of Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, Larry Rountree and Sony Michel were involved for different stretches of the season; they combined for just *one* fantasy finish inside the position's top-24 backs throughout the year.

I’d give Kelley the slight nod as the preferred last-round dart in fantasy land, but even then it wouldn’t be surprising if an injury to Ekeler led to an evenly-split committee and/or newfound free-agent veteran addition. I haven’t made a habit of attacking this underwhelming group of backups in early summer drafts, but that could change with more clarity surrounding exactly who is expected to work as the clear-cut No. 2 option.

Los Angeles Rams

Question: Who is the No. 3 WR behind Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson?

There are three primary candidates:

TuTu Atwell: The pint-sized speedster flashed the ability to get behind the secondary last season. He also played over 80% of the offense’s snaps in three of his final four games, but ultimately he has just two career games with more than 50 receiving yards. It’d make sense if Atwell serves more of a pure field-stretching role on a middling snap rate with everyone healthy.

Puka Nacua: Already earned a bit of hype despite his standing as the 2023 NFL Draft’s 177th overall pick. Dane Brugler one-sentence summary from his ever-excellent The Beast: “Overall, Nacua needs to prove he can stay healthy and on the field at the next level, but he is smart, tough and athletic with the locked-in concentration that gives him a fighting chance to earn an NFL roster spot.”

Bennett Skowronek: The former seventh-rounder was PFF’s lowest-graded receiver, but someone who played at least 85% of the offense’s snaps in eight of his 14 games last season. The Rams used Skowronek all over the field — even at FB! — and certainly seem to value his blocking ability more than fantasy managers (makes sense).

The versatility of Skowronek makes it tough to see either Atwell of Nacua completely knocking him out of “three-WR” sets, which could mean even more condensed targets for guys like Kupp, Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee.

Miami Dolphins

Question: Is Dalvin Cook coming to Miami or nah?

Whoever winds up working as Mike McDaniel’s lead back will certainly carry plenty of fantasy upside simply by existing in the league’s reigning 11th-ranked scoring offense, although no team was less willing to give their RBs 20-plus touches than the Dolphins last season.

This Dolphins offense figures to continue to flow through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle before anyone else, but that wouldn’t stop Cook from earning RB2 treatment as the lead early-down back at worst.

And if not? Rookie Devon Achane joins a probable committee alongside incumbent options Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. While the rookie’s breathtaking speed makes him fun to imagine in McDaniel’s system, it’s unclear if the Dolphins consider Achane (5-foot-9, 188 pounds) too small to handle an every-down role — adding Cook to the equation would more or less confirm these concerns.

Minnesota Vikings

Question: Is this now the Alexander Mattison workhorse RB1 show?

The man has certainly put up some big-time fantasy numbers in his limited spot starts over the years.

  • Week 6, 2020: 10-26-0 rushing, 1-4-0 receiving, PPR RB47
  • Week 17, 2020: 21-95-1, 3-50-1, RB4
  • Week 3, 2021: 26-112-0, 6-59-0, RB7
  • Week 5, 2021: 25-113-0, 7-40-1, RB6
  • Week 13, 2021: 22-90-1, 3-34-0, RB8
  • Week 16, 2021: 13-41-1, 3-29-0, RB13

One concern is the reality that a lot of those performances took Mattison receiving heavy volume from a coaching staff that no longer leads the Vikings. Still, only adding a seventh-round rookie in DeWayne McBride to the equation in terms of competition adds credence to the idea that the rising fifth-year veteran could be featured to a heavy extent with Cook out of the picture.

While last year’s average of 3.8 yards per carry wasn’t exactly good, Mattison did grade out as PFF’s 12th-best rusher among 59 qualified backs. I’m a believer in the longtime hurdle master being good enough at football to make the most out of a featured workload.

This Vikings backfield ranked just 22nd in expected PPR points per game last season in large part due to Stefanski taking a page out of former mentor Sean McVay’s playbook and not featuring the RB in the passing game. Overall, the Rams and Vikings ranked 32nd and 27th in targets to the position last year.

While it’s likely Mattison takes over the heavy majority of Cook’s early-down work it’s far less clear if 1.) He’ll dominate pass-down work, and 2.) The Vikings plan on throwing the ball to their RBs any more than they did last season. This could be the difference between Mattison emerging as a legit workhorse RB1, or more of a solid RB2 in a similar mold as Dameon Pierce and J.K. Dobbins.

New England Patriots

Question: Will rising second-year RB Pierre Strong Jr. have a legit role in 2023?

The Patriots’ ever-evolving backfield has produced more than a few quality fantasy backs over the years, but the turnover has been quite frequent. Their No. 1 RB in PPR points per game since 2010 has been as follows (minimum 8 games):

  • 2022: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB10)
  • 2021: Damien Harris (RB20)
  • 2020: Rex Burkhead (RB35)
  • 2019: James White (RB23)
  • 2018: White (RB9)
  • 2017: Burkhead (RB18)
  • 2016: LeGarrette Blount (RB15)
  • 2015: Blount (RB38)
  • 2014: Shane Vereen (RB31)
  • 2013: Vereen (RB8)
  • 2012: Stevan Ridley (RB20)
  • 2011: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB30)
  • 2010: Green-Ellis (RB20)

I doubt Strong overtakes Rhamondre Stevenson for pass-down work and emerges as the offense’s new James White – although recent reports did theorize that the rising second-year back is on the “James White track” when it comes to playing time.

Last season Damien Harris actually had more carries (94) than Stevenson (88) in the eight games that the now-Bills RB was healthy enough to play 15-plus snaps; there’s a non-zero chance that Strong inherits far more rushing volume than his ADP seems to be giving him credit for.

And God forbid Stevenson is forced to miss any time? One might say Strong has a strong chance (sorry) to work ahead of guys like Ty Montgomery, Kevin Harris and J.J. Taylor as the group’s undisputed lead back.

New Orleans Saints

Question: Will the Alvin Kamara suspension news finally hit?

Kamara recently pled no contest to a lesser misdemeanor charge for his alleged role in a 2022 Las Vegas fight, meaning the felony charge is gone and we could be on the verge of getting a resolution to the situation.

I tend to leave legal questions to actual lawyers — and my friend Drew Davenport is just that. His thoughts:

Something on the lower side of things would make Kamara a bargain at his current RB3 ADP, while a longer suspension would all of a sudden vault Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams up the ranks.

Regardless: Simply finding out how long Kamara will be suspended is going to help projecting this backfield in a major way.

New York Giants

Question: Will Saquon Barkley receive a long-term deal or at least sign the franchise tag?

Still just 26 years of age, Barkley doesn’t have any age cliff concerns and figures to once again work as the Giants’ three-down workhorse. Only the Titans and Raiders were more willing to feed their RBs 20-plus touches per game last season.

Even more impressive with Barkley’s overall RB5 finish is that the Giants left quite a bit of meat on the bone: He averaged just 5.7 PPR points per game as a receiver in 2022, a full six points removed from his production as a rookie (11.7).

A resolution to the current situation would leave the longtime stud RB as a likely consensus top-five option at the position, while failure to get a deal done could lead to a lot of panic in the early rounds of fantasy drafts. 

New York Jets

Question: Just how healthy is Breece Hall (ACL)?

The latest update from Hall himself certainly seemed like good news.

“I’m doing pretty good right now. Like I’ve been saying, I’ll be ready for the first game. Right now, I’m just focused on getting my knee as strong as possible, just getting that confidence back, but it’s been going well so far.”

Hall worked as the RB7 in PPR points per game last season while posting position-best marks in yards per carry (5.8) and PFF’s Elusive Rating (100).

While an every-down workhorse role isn’t guaranteed under new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, a healthy version of Hall remains capable of rather great fantasy heights inside of an ascending Jets offense.

Philadelphia Eagles

Question: What the hell will this RB committee look like?

There’s little doubt that either D’Andre Swift or Rashaad Penny could put up big-time fantasy numbers as the featured back of the league’s reigning third-ranked scoring offense. Of course, that sentiment is also probably true for Kenneth Gainwell and even Boston Scott as well: The issue here comes down to projected volume more than anything else.

Dual-threat QBs make for pretty spectacular fantasy assets, but their tendency to 1.) Scramble instead of checking down, and 2.) Factor into the rushing equation near the goal line, has made it tough for their offense’s RBs. This is why offenses like the Eagles, Bills, Seahawks and Ravens rank among the league’s bottom-12 offenses in expected RB PPR points per game despite boasting a top-12 scoring offense over the past three seasons.

Only the Rams, Ravens, Bills, Jets and Chiefs were less willing to give their RB 15-plus touches in a game last season, and Eagles RBs rank just 28th in targets over the past two seasons. Injuries could always force a coaching staff’s hand (see: 2022 Rhamondre Stevenson), but don’t expect any RB involved here to completely take over without multiple parties out of the picture.

Swift’s chance to lock down the (minimal) pass-down work available with explosive upside has earned him the early benefit of the doubt, but don’t count out Penny – especially at his reduced ADP. He’s the best pure rusher of the group and could make some big things happen with early-down duties (AKA Miles Sanders’ 279 available touches).

Pittsburgh Steelers

Question: Will Jaylen Warren turn this backfield into more of a committee?

Warren made more out of his opportunities than Najee Harris all season long in 2022, ultimately earning more chances down the stretch with at least a 30% snap rate in six of his seven healthy games following the team’s Week 12 bye. This wasn’t the norm under Tomlin previously: Seven of Harris’ 12 least-used games in terms of offensive snap rate occurred during the final nine weeks of 2022.

It’s tough to blame the Steelers for making this usage change; the rookie back was out-performing Harris in every facet of the game.

Steelers RBs

Harris (40.4%) and Warren (40.3%) faced eight-plus defenders in the box on a nearly identical percentage of carries last season. The idea that Harris dramatically improved after getting a steel plate in his cleat removed has also been overstated.

It’s unreasonable to expect Warren to straight-up take over this backfield, but the back half of 2022 already demonstrated that at a minimum Mike “I’m a featured runner-type guy” Tomlin might be more willing to reduce Harris’ previously ridiculous workload compared to past years.

San Francisco 49ers

Question: Is Brock Purdy (elbow) healthy enough to suit up in Week 1?

Updates on Purdy’s surgery and recovery have largely been glowing all offseason. He’s reportedly on track to be ready for Week 1, and GM John Lynch has insisted all offseason that the 2022 NFL Draft’s Mr. Irrelevant is the team’s QB1.

The history of QBs balling out with multiple high-end fantasy pass-catchers is a great sign for Purdy to keep on keeping on in 2023. His second-half regular season stretch featured some rather awesome returns in fantasy land:

  • Week 13: QB17
  • Week 14: QB8
  • Week 15: QB15
  • Week 16: QB13
  • Week 17: QB11
  • Week 18: QB5

And that doesn’t even include Purdy’s 332-3-0 passing and 4-16-1 rushing performance against the Seahawks in the Wild Card round.

Still priced as a distant QB3 in fantasy land, Purdy is a good bill of health away from immediately factoring into the upside QB2 conversation.

Seattle Seahawks

Question: Is this backfield still the Kenneth Walker show?

Walker demonstrated big-play ability and plenty of ankle-breaking moves during a rookie season that saw him rack up 1,215 total yards and nine TDs in just 15 games.

Of course, the Seahawks didn’t utilize the 52nd overall pick on UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet for no reason. Complicating matters is the reality that Charbonnet profiles as the sort of talent capable of taking away some of Walker’s most fantasy-friendly usage:

  • Pass-down work: Walker was one of the league’s worst RBs in both PFF Receiving Grade (56.0, No. 35) and Pass-Blocking Grade (32.0, No. 43).
  • Goal-line ability: No RB converted a lower percentage of their carries inside the five-yard line into TDs than Walker (11%) among the NFL’s 25 most-used goal-line backs.

Some offseason reports state Walker’s workload won’t change, others caution to not “be surprised at the playing time and opportunities” that Charbonnet will receive.

Either RB would vye for legit RB1 consideration with an every-down role inside of the Seahawks’ reigning ninth-ranked scoring offense; don’t be surprised if their respective ADPs change in a meaningful way with more clarity surrounding their eventual split.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Question: Will Rachaad White receive a true every-down role?

The main allure for White’s fantasy value at the moment is the reality that… there is basically no competition here. Things could always change with a free agent signing (Zeke has been rumored here), but otherwise the team only added Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker to the mix.

Rachaad White

Dec 18, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (29) runs with the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

White got to play one game without Leonard Fournette last season:

  • Rushing: 14-64-0
  • Receiving: 9-45-0
  • Usage: 90% snap rate
  • Fantasy production: PPR RB9

This offense was terrible last season, and Fournette finished as the PPR RB12 both overall and on a per-game basis: Enough volume can turn mediocre RBs in bad offenses into quality fantasy assets — White will look like a bargain at his current ADP should a legit every-down role emerge.

Tennessee Titans

Question: Is rising second-year TE Chigoziem Okonkwo set to play an every-down role?

While Okonkwo never played more than half of the offense’s snaps on just two occasions last season, he worked as one of the league’s most-efficient TEs in just about any metric:

  • PFF receiving grade: 84.6 (No. 2 among 47 qualified TE)
  • Yards per route run: 2.61 (No. 1)
  • Yards per reception: 14 (No. 1)
  • Yards after the catch per reception: 7.8 (tied for No. 2)
  • Targets per route run: 26.2% (No. 2)
  • Passer rating when targeted: 125.1 (No. 7)

The departure of Austin Hooper could lead to more of a full-time role for Chiggy in 2023, although it’s not a given considering the Titans have had no problem with rotating multiple parties at the position in past years.

Washington Commanders

Question: Will Sam Howell hold off Jacoby Brissett for the starting job?

The latest report from MB Fantasy Life’s fearless leader himself certainly seems promising!

Small-sample size be damned: There’s reason for optimism behind Howell as both a real-life and fantasy QB. The rising second-year signal-caller’s deep-ball goodness and 183-828-11 rushing line in his final season at North Carolina paint the picture of a fantasy-friendly QB, something he demonstrated at the NFL level with a QB7 finish in Week 18 last season.

The hit rate of day-three picks isn’t good, but Howell profiles as the sort of dual-threat QB capable of being far better in fantasy land than in real life during the early parts of his career… if given the opportunity.

Key Fantasy Questions