Fantasy Football Strategy. Last-Round Picks To Target.
A standard 18-round fantasy football draft results in 216 players being selected by the time everything is all said and done.
Of course, it’s pretty difficult to feel overly confident about the players going in the final round considering just how barren the pickings are at that point, but that doesn’t mean we can’t try to find some value outside of the top-200 picks.
Here are four dart throws I’ve made a habit of drafting after having already completed over 100 drafts over at Underdog Fantasy so far this offseason. And as always: It’s a great day to be great.
Ryan Tannehill
- ADP: QB32 (pick No. 213.8 overall)
In case you haven’t been watching much Titans football over the past four seasons, Tannehill is good.
- EPA per dropback: +0.12 (No. 9 among 39 qualifying QBs since 2019
- Passer rating: 100.5 (No. 6)
- Yards per attempt: 7.9 (No. 4)
- Adjusted yards per attempt: 8.09 (No. 6)
- Completion rate: 66.9% (No. 10)
- TD/INT ratio: 2.7 (No. 10)
Tannehill's passing efficiency and ability to rack up rushing scores (20 rushing TDs since 2019, which is more than Lamar Jackson!) has helped him post QB9, QB9, QB14, and QB22 finishes in fantasy points per game (PPG) over this span. His QB22 finish last season is concerning, but Tannehill deserves some slack for having played with one of the league’s worst WR rooms and having dealt with ankle injuries in 2022.
Heading into 2023, the expected signing of DeAndre Hopkins and the return of a healthy Treylon Burks should provide major upgrades at WR over what Tannehill had to work with last year.
And although there’s some uncertainty surrounding Tannehill’s status as the starting QB in Tennessee after the team used the 33rd overall pick on Kentucky QB Will Levis, there's still a fair chance that the veteran could retain his starting role for all or most of 2023.
Dec 4, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
After all, there have been reports that Malik Willis has outperformed Levis in offseason practices. And while coach speak can't always be trusted, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel did say in March that they “of course” expect Tannehill to be their QB in 2023.
Vrabel also added that Tannehill is still the first man on the depth chart even after having selected Levis in the NFL Draft, and it doesn't hurt either that only Patrick Mahomes ($39.6 million) has a higher 2023 salary cap hit than Tannehill ($36.6 million).
Maybe things could get dicey if the Titans struggle early in the season and quickly fall out of playoff contention, but this is a team that managed to take the Chiefs into overtime at Arrowhead even with an awful showing from Willis last year.
Tennessee also managed to hold a lead until late in the fourth quarter in a must-win Week 18 game against the Jaguars in 2022 with freakin' Joshua Dobbs under center, so don't expect the Titans to tank even with an underwhelming list of names on their roster heading into 2023.
Tannehill is pretty much the only QB available outside of the top-170 picks who has any sort of track record of high-end fantasy success. Don’t be afraid to add him as your QB2 or QB3 in the last round of drafts, especially if you already selected Hopkins, Burks, and/or Chigoziem Okonkwo earlier in that draft.
Pierre Strong Jr.
- ADP: RB64 (pick No. 207.8 overall)
The Patriots’ ever-evolving backfield has produced more than a few quality fantasy RBs over the years, but the turnover has been quite frequent. Here's a list of the top-scoring New England RB in PPR PPG since 2010 (minimum eight games played in a season):
- 2022: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB10)
- 2021: Damien Harris (RB20)
- 2020: Rex Burkhead (RB35)
- 2019: James White (RB23)
- 2018: James White (RB9)
- 2017: Rex Burkhead (RB18)
- 2016: LeGarrette Blount (RB15)
- 2015: LeGarrette Blount (RB38)
- 2014: Shane Vereen (RB31)
- 2013: Shane Vereen (RB8)
- 2012: Stevan Ridley (RB20)
- 2011: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB30)
- 2010: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB20)
As you can see, there aren't many repeat names on there, and no one RB made the list more than twice.
While I doubt that Strong will completely overtake Stevenson for pass-down work and emerge as James White 2.0, recent reports have theorized that Strong could be on the “James White track” when it comes to playing time.
Last season, Harris actually had more carries (94) than Stevenson (88) in the eight games in which he was healthy enough to play 15-plus snaps, so there's also a non-zero chance that Strong could inherits far more rushing volume than his ADP seems to be giving him credit for heading into 2023.
And God forbid if Stevenson were to miss any time due to injury. In such a scenario, one could say that Strong has a strong chance (sorry) to be the undisputed lead back over guys like Ty Montgomery, Kevin Harris, and J.J. Taylor.
You can draft a few shares of Strong in the last round on Underdog Fantasy and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!
Robert Woods
- ADP: WR86 (pick No. 204.4 overall)
The allure for drafting the artist known as Bobby Trees in the final round is that he currently profiles as the Texans' starting Z receiver after fetching $10 million guaranteed in free agency.
Houston's offense should also be somewhat better in 2023 with C.J. Stroud under center instead of Davis Mills. Stroud is arguably the best pure passer in from the 2023 NFL Draft class, and Woods will be playing on an offense with more available targets and air yards from last season than any other offense in the league.
Moreover, Woods is well-versed in this offensive system to the point that head coach DeMeco Ryans said, “He knows it, knows it just as good as some of our coaches know it.”
And while Woods posted concerning efficiency metrics in 2022, he'll be another year removed from his 2021 ACL tear this coming season, which likely contributed to his struggles with the Titans.
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Robert Woods (2) dives for extra yards past Indianapolis Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin (44) during the third quarter at Nissan Stadium Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. NFL Indianapolis Colts At Tennessee Titans Photo Credit: George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
Considering the fact that Adam Thielen checks a lot of these same boxes as Woods but is two years older and going way earlier in drafts as the WR64 (pick No. 142.8 overall), Woods seems like a bargain.
I get it. Drafting a 31-year-old WR fresh off a disappointing 53-527-2 campaign isn’t exactly going to bring a smile to your face, but Woods is being drafted in the same range as WRs like Mecole Hardman, Marvin Jones, and Josh Downs. None of those guys are even locks to start for their respective teams in three-WR sets, whereas Woods actually has a path to lead his team in targets this coming season.
Ideally, your WR position is already pretty filled out by the time Round 18 rolls around, but Woods presents some nice bang for your buck. He could be in the weekly WR3 or WR4 conversation if he were to emerge as the No. 1 target for Stroud on a wide-open Houston passing offense, which is more than you could say for any other WR being drafted in Round 18.
Isaiah Likely
- ADP: TE27 (pick No. 203.6 overall)
The only TE handcuff in all of fantasy football, Likely showed what he's capable of achieving in just three games with a snap rate north of 50% as a rookie last year:
- Week 8: 6-77-1 (7 targets), PPR TE2
- Week 9: 1-24-1 (5 targets), PPR TE9
- Week 18: 8-103-0 (13 targets), PPR TE3
Of course, the presence of Mark Andrews limited Likely’s weekly role and kept him from being a viable fantasy asset for the rest of the season. Fun fact: it’s impossible for players to score fantasy points if they aren’t on the field.
Still, Likely profiles as one of, if not the only, player available outside of the top-200 picks certifiably one injury away from becoming a potential weekly top-six option at his position. Drafting players purely because of contingency value isn’t ideal, but it’s more okay when using literally the last pick of your entire draft.
The plethora of WR additions in this Baltimore offense has many envisioning new offensive coordinator Todd Monken centering his passing game around them, but it's worth noting that the Georgia Bulldogs did make a habit of featuring both TEs Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington under Monken's tutelage.
Look, you aren’t drafting Likely to be your No. 1 TE anyway, so why not take him as a lottery ticket?
Other last-round TEs like Jake Ferguson, Michael Mayer, Jelani Woods, and Noah Fant are all probably multiple injuries away from any chance of becoming a top-12 fantasy TE. None of those options are likely to be a TE who could become a must-start option in fantasy like Likely could be if Andrews were to miss time in 2023.
You can grab a few of these last-round fantasy picks on Underdog Fantasy and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!
