Lions (-1.5) at Jets – 43.5 total
This game should at least be in the afternoon and not buried in the early slate. Both teams have an outside shot at the playoffs with multiple fantasy stars. The Lions are white hot on offense over their last five games, but maybe being out in the cold for a change will slow them down.
But I’m less concerned about the weather and more worried about the Jets’ defense. While Detroit is second in offensive EPA per play, New York ranks seventh on the defensive side. They’ve held their last three opponents to less than 200 passing yards, but teams have found a way to get their primary players the rock.
Stefon Diggs saw his lowest aDOT of the season (5.6) and his third-highest slot rate (41.2%) since the team’s bye. Josh Allen completed just one pass for a first to the perimeter, with Sauce Gardner lurking on the outside. If the Lions employ a similar approach, we know who benefits.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has 48 targets since Week 10. The next closest pass-catcher (D’Andre Swift) has 20. The Sun God’s 47.9% slot rate puts him in a prime spot to bring the heat to the Jets’ interior secondary. With Quinnen Williams still missing practice, St. Brown and Swift can keep the Lions’ offense roaring on Sunday.
The doctors couldn’t clear Mike White, which puts Zach Wilson back under center for New York. On Wednesday, Robert Saleh elevated Wilson to the backup role, adding to the personnel adjustments. Plus, Elijah Moore enters our lives again with Corey Davis still in the concussion protocol.
We can cite environmental factors (e.g., QB change, personnel additions) for his sophomore downturn, but earning targets is still a skill, and Moore’s still learning it. His paltry 16.2% TPRR is a steep drop from last season (24.0%), but Moore and Garrett Wilson are the Jets' most efficient receivers from the slot. As a result, Moore moves into WR3 consideration on the week.
Detroit’s allowed 276 passing yards per game over their previous six games. Just last week, Justin Jefferson torched them for 153 yards on the interior, but let’s find a better comparison. Christian Kirk had a 7-93-0 stat line the prior week. Wilson’s team-leading 21.9% target share should have WR1 consideration this week, but Moore has flex appeal to kick off the fantasy playoffs. However, the Jets’ backfield will be the key factor for the game.
Running backs have averaged 8.1 PPR points per game against the Lions over the last four weeks. However, Zonovan Knight is 14th in EPA per attempt over the same span, with the third-highest YPRR on the team (1.42). With Knight holding a commanding 70.0% share of the carries in the red zone, Knight remains a strong RB2 option in Week 15.
