The 2023 Chargers had all sorts of high expectations entering year four of the Justin Herbert experience. Things started out fine enough with a 4-4 start … before the squad lost eight of their final nine games, including a 63-21 massacre against the Raiders that wound up costing Brandon Staley his job.

Fast forward to 2024, and suddenly there's new hope in the form of longtime Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. All the man has done throughout his coaching career is win football games, although some of the team's offseason personnel decisions don't exactly seem to reflect the world's most fantasy-friendly offense.

A quick overview of the Chargers' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Adding Notre Dame OT Joe Alt (1.05) should help boost what has largely been a mediocre offensive line over the years.

The importance of this improvement can't be understated, just ask Harbaugh—but just how much will this newfound emphasis on the line of scrimmage help the production of a certain 262-million-dollar man under center?

Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Injuries have prevented Herbert from regaining his demonstrated high-end upside in recent years.

Herbert fantasy points per game by year:

  • 2020: 22.2 (QB7)
  • 2021: 22.4 (QB2)
  • 2022: 16.4 (QB15)
  • 2023: 17.9 (QB10)

The 2022 season featured a fractured rib and torn shoulder labrum, while 2023 saw the former sixth-overall pick fracture his left middle finger in October before suffering a season-ending right index finger fracture in Week 14. It's been a while since we've seen Herbert get a chance to operate at full health for more than a month at a time.

Herbert ranks 14th in EPA per dropback (+0.131) and 28th in completion percentage over expected (+0.2%) among 52 qualified QBs since entering the league, although those good-not-great numbers probably undersell his actual ability considering he hasn't exactly been fishing with dynamite in this offense over the years.

Chargers ranks in Supporting Cast Rating:

  • 2020: 32nd
  • 2021: 15th
  • 2022: 28th
  • 2023: 29th

Nobody is debating the greatness of Keenan Allen or (to a lesser extent) Mike Williams when healthy, but otherwise Herbert has consistently been surrounded by mediocre offensive lines and replacement-level pass-catchers. At his best, Herbert combines enough athleticism to evade free pass rushers with pinpoint downfield accuracy; it's scary to think about what he could do with someone like Tua Tagovailoa or Brock Purdy's weapons.

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Dec 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) drops back to pass against the Denver Broncos during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

It'd be cool if this was the part of the article where I got to heap praise on all Herbert's new-and-improved pass-game options … but alas. With all due respect: This is probably the NFL's worst group of pass-catching RBs, WRs, and TEs, and it's also not guaranteed that the addition of one new shiny offensive lineman takes this group from average to great overnight.

Oh yeah, there's also the whole "Jim Harbaugh offenses have attempted more passes than runs only twice in his 17 years as head coach" part of the equation. Early Fantasy Life projections have Herbert ranked 17th in total pass attempts ahead of 2024 and honestly that feels generous.

Bottom line: The combination of a mediocre supporting cast with low-end volume has Herbert facing an uphill battle to produce another QB1 performance in fantasy land. He's accordingly cheaper than ever (QB17, pick 133.2 ADP), but taking the 26-year-old ahead of lesser real-life talents like Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff is tough due to the latter QBs' vastly superior offensive environments and expected fantasy-friendly volume. The path to success here is probably Herbert leaning on his legs more than ever inside of this Greg Roman-coached offense; he's still not someone I've made a habit of coming away with in best ball and redraft land, although this is a PRIME opportunity to buy low in dynasty formats.

Running Back

Head coach Jim Harbaugh is fully expected to run the piss out of the football, meaning these former Ravens RBs *should* be flirting with double-digit touch workloads from Week 1 on this season. It's fair to be more enthused with Edwards than Dobbins considering the history of RBs coming off an Achilles tear, but then again the latter claims to be back to full health and seemingly has a chance to earn the starting job.

Renowned NFL insider Daniel Jeremiah went as far as to state, "If you're in a fantasy draft, draft J.K. Dobbins." It certainly won't cost you much!

Cheapest NFL backfields by ADP of top-two RBs:

  • Giants (pick 152 average ADP of RB1 and RB2)
  • Raiders (151)
  • Chargers (138.5)
  • Bears (138.1)
  • Browns (134.4)

Still, the contracts between Gus Bus and Dobbins are quite different. One looks poised to see a fairly prominent role throughout the season, and the other looks a bit more like a lottery ticket:

  • Edwards: 2-years, $6.5 million, $3.375 million guaranteed
  • Dobbins: 1-year, $1.61 million, $50,000 guaranteed

While Edwards' production in Baltimore was heavily aided by boatloads of fantasy-friendly goal-line volume, money talks, and the Chargers have invested more into him than any other RB on their roster. He's rather easily projected to lead this backfield. Keep an eye on the undisclosed injury here, but it looks like Gus should be fine by training camp.

And then there's sixth-round rookie RB Kimani Vidal. He's fast (4.46 40-yard dash) with theoretical three-down size (5'8", 213 pounds) and even managed to post a 92-700-1 receiving line in four years at Troy.

But c'mon people. The man fell all the way to Round 6 (pick 181) for a reason. The Chargers made six selections before addressing their backfield. Kudos to Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz for saying nice things about the guy he drafted (that never happens!), but let's face it: Day three RBs seldom provide booms in fantasy land, both as rookies and throughout the rest of their career.

Bottom line: Ultimately, we have a fairly clear-cut top-three inside of a backfield that figures to contend with being one of the league's most run-heavy offenses … and each of them are currently priced outside of the top-36 options at the position. This is the exact sort of backfield that zero/hero-RB enthusiasts should be attacking and is reminiscent of the discount afforded to all Dolphins RBs last season—don't be afraid to throw late-round darts at all three parties involved.

Wide Receiver

Fantasy Life's Jonathan Fuller noted the following strengths and weaknesses for McConkey in his excellent pre-draft profile:

  • Strength: Efficiency. He never posted lower than 2.16 YPRR in any of the three seasons he played in. His final year mark of 3.26 YPRR ranked 8th best in the nation for all WRs in 2023 (min. 30 targets).
  • Strength: Route running. McConkey is an absolute nightmare for defenders to try to stick with. He has elite change-of-direction skills, can separate from coverage in the blink of an eye, and has plenty of highlights where he leaves defenders all twisted up.
  • Weakness: Part-time college player. Georgia is an elite program with many talented players, but the numbers suggest that they did not view McConkey as an essential piece of their offense. They were willing to take him off the field somewhat regularly, which means he was basically a role player rather than someone they built the offense around.
  • Weakness: Size and strength. At 6’0” and 186 lbs., McConkey isn’t exactly an intimidating presence. He relies on his quickness and route running to win against defensive backs but can struggle to separate against physical coverage.

The 34th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft was obviously brought to the Chargers to be a big piece of the offense, but the latter concern does seem to put McConkey at risk of a part-time role early in his NFL career. 

Don't get it twisted: McConkey profiles as far more than an underneath slot receiver at the professional level; the problem is that the early word from the Chargers beat is that he's spent most of his time in the slot, meaning he might not stay on the field in two-TE sets, which Greg Roman used at the league's third- and second-highest rates during his time in Baltimore and San Francisco.

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Jun 13, 2024; Costa Mesa, CA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey (15) carries the ball during minicamp at the Hoag Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Guys like Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin put up big numbers inside Harbaugh and Roman's offenses with the 49ers; it's not like we shouldn't expect anyone in this passing game to excel. Still, McConkey's relatively meh 106-target projection reflects the reality that securing the No. 1 job in this passing game still might not lead to all that much fantasy-friendly opportunity.

The other two expected starters here are Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston.

The former receiver put up career-best efficiency numbers in 2023 and deserves credit for posting the biggest single-game yardage total against the Chiefs' (133) vaunted secondary. Palmer possesses a level of fluidity that helped him make plays both after the catch and downfield; he's a dark horse to lead this team in targets and doesn't turn 25 until September.

And then there's Johnston, whose rookie season was marred by some truly bad drops and generally porous production. The one facet of the game where he seemed to flash was after the catch, something that Roman has talked about expanding on in 2024. While the history of first-round picks with such brutal production in year one is littered with busts, the Chargers certainly appear ready to give the 22-year-old talent another chance to prove his worth in 2024.

The other WRs involved could certainly complicate things by working their respective ways into the rotation; just realize none profile as fantasy-relevant assets due to the likelihood this offense concentrates volume elsewhere.

Bottom line: I have a hard time pulling the trigger on McConkey (WR42, pick 70.1 ADP) over similarly-priced guys like DeAndre Hopkins, BrIan Thomas, Diontae Johnson, and Christian Watson, who are all also seemingly good football players and happen to play in far more pass-happy offenses. Palmer (WR54, 105.5) profiles as the far better pick at cost, and Johnston is a reasonable enough late-round dart. That said, don't be surprised if the answer to which Chargers WR you want in fantasy football is simply: No.

Tight End

The Chargers added two new TEs to their offense. Similar to their RB room, the money involved pretty clearly shows who we should expect to lead the way.

  • Hurst: 1 year, $1.125 million, $0 guaranteed
  • Dissly: 3 years, $14 million, $10 million guaranteed

Of course, Hurst does have some familiarity with Roman dating back to their days in Baltimore, and he has been more productive as a pass-catcher than Dissly during their respective six-year careers.

Still, Parham is probably the most talented receiver in the group, yet his lack of blocking ability will likely continue to limit his chances of ever gaining a true every-down role.

Roman has certainly been more than willing to feature the TE position in his offenses over the years, but there doesn't appear to be a Vernon Davis or Mark Andrews-level talent on this roster at the moment.

Bottom line: Fantasy Life projections feature a three-way split here with nobody reaching even 40 total targets. May God help your soul if you actively go out of your way to draft any of these low-ceiling options this season.

Chargers 2024 Season Prediction

Adding Michigan DC Jesse Minter to the equation should help provide some stability to the league's reigning 24th-ranked scoring defense. There are some big name talents on the defensive side of the ball like Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Asante Samuel Jr., and Derwin James, but the former two veterans have age and health red flags, while the latter two secondary options weren't enough to prevent this group from finishing as a bottom-eight defense in yards per attempt, passer rating and explosive pass play rate allowed last season.

The Chargers have won 7, 9, 10, and most recently 5 games in the Herbert era. Meanwhile, Harbaugh won 13, 11, 12, and 8 games in four seasons as the 49ers head coach. While I'm bullish on the long-term upside of this partnership, the offense's lack of playmakers and potential for the defense to still be a year away from resembling an overly good group has me taking under 8.5 wins.

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