The 2023 Rams didn't quite achieve as much success as the 2018 and 2021 editions of this team, but their 10-7 finish and competitive Wild Card loss to the Lions should still be seen as a net positive. After all, this was a top-four offense in both EPA and yards per play when Matthew Stafford was under center last season.

Of course, 2024 represents a new era in the wake of future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald's retirement. The front office made a number of changes on the offensive side of the ball as well. Here's a quick overview of the Rams' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

  • Head coach: Sean McVay (70-45 in seven seasons with the Rams)
  • Offensive coordinator: Mike LaFleur (58.6% pass-play rate in 2023, 22nd)
  • Offseason arrivals: TE Colby Parkinson (three years, $22.5 million), QB Jimmy Garoppolo (one year, $3.2 million), and RB Boston Scott (one year, $1.2 million)
  • Offseason departures: WR Ben Skowronek (Texans), QB Carson Wentz (Chiefs), RB Royce Freeman (Cowboys), and TE Brycen Hopkins (free agent)
  • Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Michigan RB Blake Corum (3.83) and Texas WR Jordan Whittington (6.213)
  • Reigning Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive line rank and returning starters: No. 14, 4/5

The Rams threw some serious dollars at their largely average offensive line by signing ex-Lions G Jonah Jackson (three years, $51 million) and extending G Kevin Dotson (three years, $48 million). This makes sense considering how screwed this team has looked whenever Stafford has missed time.

Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

The "Wait…Matthew Stafford is actually really good" tour has continued this offseason, most notably with Texans QB C.J. Stroud stating that Stafford would have more rings than Aaron Rodgers if he'd spent the early portion of his career in Green Bay instead.

Offseason speculation is a helluva drug. Regardless, there's plenty of evidence that, at a minimum, Stafford functioned as a pretty damn good QB in 2023. Here's how he ranked among 32 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks last year:

  • EPA per dropback: +0.144 (No. 8)
  • Completion percentage over expected: -1.9% (No. 26)
  • PFF pass grade: 86.0 (No. 4)
  • Passer rating: 94.3 (No. 12)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.8 (No. 5)

The performance was particularly impressive considering that Cooper Kupp missed time with a hamstring injury and generally didn't look like his usual self throughout the season. Credit to Puka Nacua as well as (to far lesser extents) Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell for picking up the slack, but just realize that Stafford wasn't exactly throwing to the world's greatest pass-catching corps last season.

Matthew Stafford

L.A. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford looks to throw the ball in the first half against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. Photo Credit: Melanie Maxwell / USA TODAY NETWORK

Of course, having Sean McVay will always help from a play-calling perspective, and the league's ninth-ranked rushing attack in terms of raw yards per carry consistently kept opposing defenses honest. This offense was grooving by the end of the season, having scored 37, 36, 31, 28, 30, 26, and 23 points, respectively, in their final seven meaningful games.

And yet, all of those good things didn't bring out the best of Stafford from a fantasy football perspective. Just the QB16 in fantasy points per game (PPG), Stafford didn't register a single weekly finish better than QB15 until Week 12 last season. Kudos to him for posting top-10 numbers in four of his final six starts of the year, but it wasn't exactly the bounce-back to 2021 heights (QB11) that fantasy managers were hoping for following a down 2022 campaign (QB29).

Ultimately, the utter lack of a fantasy-friendly rushing floor leaves the Rams' 36-year-old signal-caller as a better real-life QB than fantasy option, particularly on an offense that only ranked 22nd in raw pass-play rate (58.6%) last season.

Bottom line: Stafford is hardly someone drafters have to go out of their way to land at his affordable ADP (QB19, pick No. 152.5 overall). He's appropriately priced in the same tier as fellow elderly pocket passers like Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers.

The potential for multi-TD spike weeks is certainly still here, though. Because of that, I'm more than fine with Stafford as my QB2 in best ball builds that managed to snag one of his top two WRs in the early rounds, even if cheaper options like Deshaun Watson and Will Levis probably present higher fantasy ceilings in 2024.

Running Back

Williams's rookie season consisted of just 44 touches after a fractured foot and high ankle sprain kept him sidelined until November.

And then 2023 happened. While Cam Akers actually started and led the backfield in touches in Week 1, he was a healthy scratch for Week 2 and got traded to the Vikings soon after. This opened the door for Williams to assume one of the league's most fantasy-friendly workloads, as the Rams were among the most willing offenses to feature a true workhorse RB last year.

Because of that workload, the results in fantasy land were spectacular. Only Christian McCaffrey (24.5) scored more PPR PPG than Williams (21.3) in 2023, as the 2022 fifth-round pick racked up 1,350 total yards and 15 TDs as the Rams' bell-cow back.

And guess what? Williams looked good doing it, emerging as one of the league's most efficient rushers in rushing yards over expected per carry per Next Gen Stats. Here are the only RBs who ranked higher in that metric last season:

  1. De'Von Achane (+2.87 yards over expected per carry)
  2. Christian McCaffrey (+1.32)
  3. Jaylen Warren (+1.11)
  4. James Conner (+1.02)
  5. Zack Moss (+0.71)
  6. Breece Hall (+0.67)
  7. Kyren Williams (+0.65)

The only real complaint about Williams was his relative lack of receiving success, which was surprising considering that was largely considered his strength coming out of Notre Dame. Overall, Williams finished with under 25 receiving yards in all but two games last season, notably ranking dead ass last in yards per route run (0.64) among 47 qualifying RBs.

Kyren Williams

Dec 21, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) runs the ball against New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Now, McVay hasn't made a big habit of overly involving the RB in pass game over the years anyway, but Williams's lack of production here could limit his fantasy ceiling if the team's shiny new third-round pick manages to carve out a role. It wouldn't be crazy if Corum were to see more carries than what Darrell Henderson, Royce Freeman, Ronnie Rivers, and Zach Evans combined for in 2023.

It sure sounds like this is a possibility based on McVay's offseason comments:

“Blake Corum has really stood out. Mature beyond his years. I love the way that he handles himself. I love even more how when there’s been a couple things that don’t go the way we wanted, how he responded the next play.”

General manager Les Snead also noted that Corum was a pick “so we don't just totally run down Kyren.”

That said, Corum won't necessarily force a 50/50 split. Plus, there are similar receiving concerns for the rookie, and it's tough to quantify the idea that he drastically improved while getting healthier last season. Scoring 27 rushing TDs in a season is admittingly pretty damn cool; just realize that a whopping 22 of those came from inside the five-yard line.

Bottom line: Williams projects for more of a Derrick Henry-esque workload than he did last season considering the potential continued lack of usage as a receiver as well as the possibility that Corum could carve out a clear 1B role. But even then, Fantasy Life Projections still give Williams a whopping 271 combined carries and targets, so a third-round price tag for the lead back of an expected top-10 scoring offense is hardly egregious.

Additionally, Corum (RB36 ADP, pick No. 119.3 overall) is shaping up as one of fantasy's most valuable handcuffs considering McVay's history of handing his lead back a true every-down role when dealing with a thin backfield. Corum is an especially fantastic mid-round upside option on rosters already blessed with three or so RBs to anchor the position.

Wide Receiver

  • WR1: Puka Nacua (Fantasy Life consensus rank: WR8)
  • WR2: Cooper Kupp (WR24)
  • WR3: Demarcus Robinson (WR79)
  • WR4: Tutu Atwell
  • WR5: Tyler Johnson
  • WR6: Jordan Whittington

Last season, Nacua and Kupp played 12 full games together. In those 12 games, here was their usage and production:

  • Nacua: 66-1,055-4 on 100 targets
  • Kupp: 63-753-5 on 99 targets

The fact that Puka far outproduced Kupp on similar targets show that the NFL's all-time leader in rookie year receiving yards (1,486) was pretty, pretty good. Puka was in elite company as a rookie. Just take a look at the 2023 leaderboard in yards per route run among 80 WRs who saw at least 50 targets:

  1. Tyreek Hill (3.82)
  2. Nico Collins (3.1)
  3. Brandon Aiyuk (3.01)
  4. Justin Jefferson (2.91)
  5. CeeDee Lamb (2.78)
  6. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.63)
  7. Jaylen Waddle (2.63)
  8. Puka Nacua (2.59)

Then again, we only need to look back one more season to find when Kupp was fantasy's overall No. 1 WR in PPR PPG. Suffering multiple sprained ankles and a pulled hamstring since November of 2022 is hardly ideal for projecting the 31-year-old veteran to start partying like it's 2021 again, but simply assuming that Kupp is now this offense's clear-cut No. 2 WR when healthy also doesn't make much sense.

Cooper Kupp

Dec 31, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) catches a touchdown pass against New York Giants cornerback Nick McCloud (44) during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

If anything, this group has the look of some of McVay's early Rams squads that regularly leaned on both Kupp and Robert Woods as their 1A/1B pass-game options. Things were split very evenly between Kupp (134, 124 targets) and the artist known as Bobby Trees (139, 129) during the 2019 and 2020 seasons before Kupp became the guy in 2021.

Fantasy Life Projections certainly give the Rams' impressive sophomore WR the edge heading into 2024, but there's still plenty of meat on the bone for the savvy veteran WR as well. Here are the Rams players projected for more than 25 targets in 2024:

  • Puka Nacua: 140
  • Cooper Kupp: 122
  • Demarcus Robinson: 78
  • Kyren Williams: 51
  • Davis Allen: 39
  • Colby Parkinson: 32

Speaking of Robinson, the former Chiefs WR proved last year that he was still capable of putting together some solid performances down the stretch:

  • Week 13: 4-55-1
  • Week 14: 3-46-1
  • Week 15: 2-44-1
  • Week 16: 6-82-1
  • Week 17: 6-92-0
  • Wild Card: 3-44-0

Robinson won on the outside against man coverage with regularity down the stretch and posted a route rate north of 90% in all five of his final meaningful games.

Nobody is expecting him to overtake Nacua or Kupp in Stafford's pecking order, but Robinson does profile as the clear No. 3 WR on an offense that has ranked first in total snaps out of 11 personnel in three consecutive seasons. There's legit potential here for something close to top-50 WR standalone production and truly enticing contingency upside should either Nacua or Kupp miss any game action.

Bottom line: I have a hard time taking Puka ahead of more clear-cut No. 1 WRs like A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Drake London in Round 1, but it's tough to slide the reigning WR6 in PPR PPG too far down the ole fantasy ranks.

Meanwhile, I'm a fan of Kupp's (WR23 ADP, pick No. 31 overall) borderline WR2 price tag, but Underdog's WR-heavy philosophy makes me hesitate when picking between him and bell-cow backs like his own teammate as well as Derrick Henry in that range. Ultimately, Robinson (WR80 ADP, pick No. 180.7 overall) is the easiest to click at cost and remains one of the best late-round WR options available at the moment.

Tight End

Note that this order is about who is ranked the highest and not necessarily what the Rams depth chart will look like come September.

The problem here is the late-season timing of Higbee’s ACL tear. Dr. Jeff Mueller believes that the 31-year-old veteran TE will likely miss at least half of the 2024 season and could potentially only return as a rotational player. Clearly, the Rams felt enough concern about Higbee's timeline to give Parkinson a whopping three-year, $22.5 million contract with $15.5 million guaranteed.

Tyler Higbee

Dec 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee (89) catches a pass against the Washington Commanders in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

There's also Allen, who posted 4-50-1 and 4-25-0 receiving lines in his only two games with a snap rate north of 35% last season. The second-year TE is a solid athlete and is a candidate to have a weekly role regardless of who winds up earning the starting gig.

Ultimately, this is a low-ceiling situation to invest in for fantasy purposes. Higbee has had a few flashes over the years, but they've typically come during end-of-season stretches when the Rams didn't have many other avenues to go with the football. After all, Los Angeles ranks just 26th in total targets to TEs since having acquired Stafford prior to the 2021 season.

Bottom line: Parkinson's contract figures are enough to warrant very late-round consideration for TE-needy rosters in best ball land, but the most likely answer to which Rams TE you'll need in 2024 is probably “none”.

Los Angeles Rams 2024 Season Prediction

The Rams attempted to solve their massive Aaron Donald-sized hole in the middle of their defense with Florida State DL Jared Verse (1.19) and Braden Fiske (2.39). Three of the team's next four draft picks were also used on the defensive side of the football. This group may not be as f*cked as most assume if free agent secondary additions Darious Williams, Kamren Curl, and Tre'Davious White can make solid impacts with their new employer.

Of course, a drop-off on defense won't necessarily be the end of the world if this offense keeps humming like it was down the stretch of 2023. I'm taking the over on 8.5 wins for a team that has cleared that mark in all but one of McVay's seven seasons at the helm. That said, I'd be very torn if this line were 9.5 wins, which reflects my relative lack of confidence in this bet.

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