The Patriots captured six Super Bowl titles between 2001 and 2018 while somehow winning the AFC East title in all but two years along the way. Sadly (for spoiled New Englanders at least), things have gone south recently, as three of the last four seasons have yielded losing records, most notably a 4-13 finish in 2023 that marked the team's fewest single-season victories since 1992.

Big changes have accordingly been made. Arguable GOAT head coach Bill Belichick has taken his talents to the ManningCast, three-year starting QB Mac Jones is out of the picture, and most importantly: Perennial stud special teamer Matthew Slater has retired.

All Drake and Josh'ing aside: A quick overview of the Patriots' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Of course, the missing ingredient for the Patriots has been the same ever since that guy who got roasted on Netflix left town back in 2020. Could they finally have found a new long-term solution under center? Let's find out!

New England Patriots Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Similar to the Texans at No. 2 last year, there was a lot of noise about what the Patriots' plans were with the NFL Draft's No. 3 overall pick prior to them selecting who most people considered the consensus second-best QB of the draft all along.

Maye arrived at North Carolina as a five-star recruit and next-big-thing inside of a program that has sent Mitchell Trubisky and Sam Howell to starting NFL QB heights over the past seven years.

Obviously, neither of those latter QBs exactly took over the league, but it’s hard not to be enamored about Maye’s ability to buck the trend after his three seasons in Chapel Hill. His 2022 campaign (4,321 pass yards, 38 TDs) was a bit more prolific than the encore in 2023 (3,608 yards, 24 TDs), but maybe that’s just life after losing your top two WRs to the NFL (Josh Downs, Antoine Green) and dealing with a pretty meh offensive line (and sore ankle) all season long.

Seriously: Maye’s supporting cast last season was relatively the worst of the big-six QBs and a bit of a night-and-day difference when watching the group. The discrepancy in defensive help was also startling.

Still, even the snap crash back to reality (ope, there goes gravity) wasn’t enough to stop Maye from landing PFF’s best overall passing grade over the past two seasons, even if his more traditional efficiency metrics weren’t quite as stellar.

Maye among 89 Power-5 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks 2021-23

  • PFF pass grade: 91.6 (No. 1)
  • Passer rating: 105.4 (No. 25)
  • Yards per attempt: 8.4 (No. 26)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 75.3% (No. 24)

As for the fantasy-specific upside: Don’t underestimate Maye’s ability to make some serious noise from Day 1. His rushing production wound up being more prolific than any of the big-six QBs not named Jayden Daniels when removing yards lost from sacks:

Fantasy points per game from purely rushing production 2022-23:

For reference, Maye (57 rushing yards per game in 2022-23) finds himself in the same group as guys like Anthony Richardson (59 in 2022) and Justin Fields (55 in 2019-20). Having this extra bit of dual-threat goodness could really help Maye surprise early on in fantasy land, even if his real-life development takes a bit to get going.

Of course, that's assuming Maye will indeed be under center in Week 1. Jacoby Brissett has posted the NFL's third-best completion percentage over expected (+3.8%) and eighth-best EPA per dropback (+0.153) over the past two seasons, notably going 18-for-23 for 224 yards, three TDs and zero INTs in his two games of action last season — generating a TD drive on all five of his meaningful drives along the way!

Bottom line: Top-10 QBs seldom spend much time on the bench as rookies, so failure to win the job by Week 1 shouldn't necessarily be seen as a full-season issue for Maye. Still, the team's unproven (to put it nicely) group of pass-catchers and probable run-first offense doesn't bode too well for Maye's chances of returning too much fantasy goodness — I like his Year 1 upside more than similarly-priced QBs like Bryce Young and Derek Carr, but it's tough to rationalize overly targeting any of these dudes unless you're completing a stack in best ball land. That said, Maye is my dynasty rookie QB3 and an easy top-five pick in rookie superflex drafts.

Running Back

On the one hand, Stevenson has been better than Gibson throughout their respective short careers in virtually any rushing metric you want to look at.

On the other hand, the ex-Commanders talent has been the superior pass-game option, even showcasing the ability to win downfield over the last few seasons.

Now, the Patriots beat was clear from the beginning that Stevenson is still the team's No. 1 RB, but that doesn't mean Gibson shouldn't be considered the favorite to assume the majority of Ezekiel Elliott's vacated 235 touches. New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt regularly featured multiple RBs during his last four years in Cleveland; something like a 60/40 split in favor of 'Mondre would make a lot of sense.

Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) runs the ball against the Miami Dolphins in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

That sort of usage could be just fine for both RBs should Van Pelt manage to produce another eighth-place finish for his backfield in expected RB PPR points per game. Fantasy Life projections have the split going like this:

  • Stevenson: 196 rush attempts, 50 targets
  • Gibson: 103 rush attempts, 37 targets

These don't make for the biggest overall projections in the world — Stevenson comes in as the RB18 and Gibson the RB41 in full-PPR scoring — but neither Stevenson (RB20, pick 77.7 ADP) nor Gibson (RB53, pick 170) is exactly the world's most-expensive backfield talent to acquire in fantasy land these days.

RBs have been more capable of putting up big-time fantasy numbers in bad scoring offenses relative to other positions over the years, although that still doesn't exactly make New England an offensive environment worth going out of your way to target.

Bottom line: Stevenson is a solid zero/hero-RB candidate thanks to his potential to flirt with 250 combined carries and targets in an offense that can't get much worse than last year; he's in play as a seventh/eighth-round pick regularly available after the top 42 WRs, eight TEs and eight QBs are already off the board. Meanwhile, Gibson is one of the better late-round "FLEX with benefits" RBs who is probably just one injury away from earning an RB2-worthy ranking; think of him as a cheaper version of Bengals RB2 Chase Brown.

Wide Receiver

Whoa, buddy. Where to begin:

  • Polk's standing as the 37th overall pick surprised many; this sort of draft capital should cement a spot in three-WR sets from Day 1 for the tough contested-catch artist who seems to be pretty good at everything, even if there maybe isn't an overly elite attribute to his game. My comp: Gen-Z Robert Woods (AKA Bobby Trees).
  • Douglas showed off some YAC goodness and demonstrated better underlying metrics than what his overall counting numbers suggested in year one. He's the favorite for No. 2 WR duties, although the new coaching staff and QB hardly make that a guarantee.
  • It’s realistic to believe Bourne will be ready for Week 1 considering he got the surgery done in mid-November. Nobody is actively expecting the 28-year-old WR to work as someone’s alpha No. 1 in 2024, but the veteran deserves credit for earning ESPN’s 14th-highest receiver score last season.
  • Baker apparently makes people in wheelchairs stand up, although the Fantasy Life Rookie WR Super Model wasn't thrilled with his relative lack of career production prior to 2023.
  • Osborn posted 50-655-7, 60-650-5 and 48-540-3 receiving lines as the Vikings' third banana over the past three seasons; he's a progress-stopper candidate for Polk and Baker, but not someone to be taken overly seriously by himself.
  • JuJu looked like a shell of himself in 2023 and is somehow still on the books for $7 million in 2024. The Patriots openly regret choosing him over Jakobi Meyers.

Fun fact: JuJu's original deal with the Patriots was a three-year contract worth up to $33 million, while both Bourne and (now Eagles) WR DeVante Parker locked in three-year extensions with a max value of … $33 million over the past 12 months.

WHAT IS UP WITH THE PATRIOTS GIVING MEDIOCRE WIDE RECEIVERS THREE-YEAR DEALS WORTH EXACTLY $33 MILLION??? Surely that's not exactly what Jakobi Meyers also signed for … oh no.

May 11, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk (1) arrives at practice at the New England Patriots rookie camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Anyway, this is truly one of the more wide-open pass-game pecking orders in the NFL at the moment considering the newfound talent, coaches and QB. Polk deserves the benefit of the doubt because of his draft capital, and Douglas due to his 2023 performance. After that, Bourne is probably the next man up (health permitting) after agreeing to terms on that high-dollar extension back in March.

Then again, guys like Baker and Osborn could certainly squeeze into the rotation as well. This is also an offense that could lean on two TE sets more than most.

Bottom line: There are certainly worse late-round dart throws than Polk (WR70, pick 156 ADP) and Douglas (WR81, pick 191.9). These are two of just three WRs with a Fantasy Life target projection north of 90 and an ADP outside the top 150 overall. Otherwise, I'm inclined to stay away from this likely low-volume and meh-upside passing "attack."

Tight End

Henry is another Pat who got a somewhat surprising raise this offseason, as his three-year, $27 million extension includes $15.8 million in guaranteed money.

But New England didn't stop there, reuniting Van Pelt with his old friend Austin Hooper, who served as the Browns' No. 1 TE during the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

Hopefully, it's just these two guys involved, although Mitchell Wilcox and Day 3 rookie Jaheim Bell could also factor in. After all, Van Pelt featured not one, not two, but three TEs consistently in his Browns offenses during the 2020-21 seasons:

  • Hooper: 123 targets, 53% routes, 65% snaps
  • David Njoku: 82 targets,  41% routes, 50% snaps
  • Harrison Bryant: 65 targets,  36% routes, 46% snaps

Note that all three TEs played at least 29 of a possible 32 games during this span, so it's not like injuries made too big of a difference. Only the Dolphins ran more plays with multiple TEs on the field than the Browns during this span.

Now, Van Pelt and company did condense things more so around Njoku over the past two seasons, but even if Henry DOES seize virtually full control of the TE1 job — who is to say he'll manage to earn more targets than the team's top WRs and RBs?

There was a time when Henry was one of the game's more promising talents at the position, but he hasn't been an overwhelming difference-maker during his time in New England.

Henry among 35 TEs with 100-plus targets in 2021-23 seasons

  • PFF receiving grade: 72.9 (No. 13)
  • Passer rating when targeted: 111.1 (No. 8)
  • Yards per route run: 1.28 (tied for No. 20)
  • Yards per reception: 11.5 (No. 8)

Henry is probably still good enough to push for double-digit TDs as the clear-cut lead TE in a good, pass-first offense … if only even one of those three variables were a given in New England ahead of 2024.

Bottom line: I prefer Jonnu Smith and Noah Fant to Henry when REALLY diving into the late-round TE waters. Still, it's tough to be overly critical of his TE19, pick 162 ADP; he's in play for pure late-round TE best ball enthusiasts looking to add three to four options at the position during the final six or so rounds of drafts.

Patriots 2024 Season Prediction

This feels like a bit of a transitional year in New England, and they accordingly are tied for the second-lowest win total (5.5) over at BetMGM. The path to success revolves around Maye and/or Brissett deploying something close to league-average QB play, which has been missing in this offense ever since Mac Jones' rookie season.

While I'd still be shocked if this team manages more than six to seven wins in 2024, I'm going to go out on a slight limb here and take OVER 5.5 wins more so out of respect to the still solid defense and potential for New England to at least somewhat take advantage of a last-place schedule. The bar for this group certainly isn't high relative to last year, but they do appear to boast a better offensive situation overall.

More 2024 NFL Team Previews