The Saints captured the NFC South title in four consecutive seasons from 2017 to 2020 during the twilight of Drew Brees' career. Alas, 9-8, 7-10 and most recently 9-8 campaigns have prevented the squad from making it back into playoff contention ever since. Last season's debacle hurt particularly bad considering the Saints' +75 point differential was good for the conference's third-best mark behind only the Cowboys and 49ers. 

While no NFL roster will look exactly the same from one year to the next, the Saints' lack of big-time offseason moves indicates a belief that they're close to conquering their demons. A quick overview of all the Saints' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

New Orleans improved their rather meh o-line in the form of Oregon State OL Taliese Fuaga (1.14). Here's to hoping Fuaga and another year in the system gets more out of their alleged franchise QB.

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

This will be year 11 for Carr as a starting NFL QB. There have been some highs: He was unironically an MVP candidate in 2016 before breaking his leg and put up career-best efficiency numbers during the 2019-2021 seasons under the tutelage of Jon Gruden.

There have also been plenty of lows, most recently during the majority of his debut campaign in New Orleans. Things ended fine enough with three of his last four performances producing three-plus TDs, but as a whole this was anyone's idea of an average QB:

Carr among 49 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks in 2023:

  • EPA per dropback: +0.05 (No. 21)
  • Completion percentage over expected: +3% (No. 12)
  • PFF pass grade: 77.0 (No. 16)
  • Passer rating: 97.7 (No. 10)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.1 (No. 22)

One of the main problems with Carr over the years is the reality that he really struggles to deal with pressure. The man would be one of the game's best QBs if the league ever completely devolves into a pure seven-on-seven format: Only Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, C.J. Stroud and Tua Tagovailoa posted a better passer rating when operating out of a clean pocket in 2023.

Unfortunately (for Carr at least), no such rule changes are on the horizon ahead of 2024, making it likely the man who ranked 20th or worse in PFF pass grade, passer rating and adjusted completion rate under pressure will once again cap his offense's upside when forced to conduct the offense from a muddled pocket. Carr seemingly has the arm talent and even mobility to be a far more aggressive QB than he normally is, but that simply isn't the way he's made a habit of playing the position.

Situational performance aside: The real issue with Carr in fantasy land comes down to his complete utter lack of rushing production. His average of 2.4 yards per game on the ground was the fourth-lowest mark among 39 QBs to play in at least eight contests last season. Only Tua and Kirk Cousins had a lower percentage of their total fantasy points come from rushing in 2023.

Bottom line: Carr struggles to move the football through the air efficiently, doesn't play in an offense that likes to keep its foot on the gas, and has never offered anything close to a fantasy-friendly rushing floor. Other than that, he makes for a great late-round fantasy pick (I kid). Only go after the 33-year-old veteran as a second or (preferably) third QB in best ball formats when already equipped with his No. 1 WR.

Running Back

Kamara has been a fantasy football superstar ever since the Saints selected him in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft:

Kamara PPR points per game and rank:

  • 2017: 20 (RB4)
  • 2018: 23.6 (RB4)
  • 2019: 17.8 (RB8)
  • 2020: 25.2 (RB1)
  • 2021: 18.1 (RB5)
  • 2022: 14.1 (RB13)
  • 2023: 17.9 (RB3)

However, his underlying efficiency numbers last season weren't exactly what we were used to seeing. Once considered among the league's best overall rushers and toughest ball carriers to get to the ground, Kamara ranked just 43rd among 49 qualified RBs in both missed tackles forced (0.12) and yards after contact (2.5) per carry last season. He's now averaged 3.7, 4.0 and 3.9 yards per carry over the past three seasons after putting forward a blistering 4.97 rate during the first four seasons of his career.

Overall, only Jamaal Williams (-0.98), Kareem Hunt (-0.75) and Dameon Pierce (-0.59) averaged more rushing yards below expected than Kamara (-0.56) last season. That's not good!

Further complicating matters is the reality that Taysom Hill nearly had as many carries inside the five-yard line (7) as Kamara (8). Why wasn't Williams (2) given more run on the goal line after, you know, scoring a league-high 17 rushing TDs in 2022 and earning a $12 million contract from the Saints? I … don't know.

Dec 10, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against Carolina Panthers defensive end Henry Anderson (94) during the first half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The rushing pie is a bit f*cked up here due to the presence of multiple inefficient RBs and a professional vulture. And yet, this has still been a top-11 backfield in terms of expected RB PPR points per game over the past two seasons.

Why? That sweet, sweet receiving volume, baby. Only the Broncos (144) and Jets (139) threw more total targets to their RBs than the Saints (123) last season. This was the perfect marriage of:

  • Carr's aforementioned tendency to play a bit "scared": His 9.4% checkdown rate was the sixth-highest mark among 39 qualified QBs.
  • Kamara still very much being a featured part of this passing game: Only Christian McCaffrey (39) had more "first read" targets than Kamara (32) last season despite the latter back playing in three fewer games.

Add it all together, and only CMC (10.3) averaged more PPR points per game from purely receiving production than Kamara (9.8) last season, and no RB had a higher percentage of their overall fantasy production come through the air.

As for the Saints' other two RBs:

  • Williams was by most accounts the NFL's worst RB last season. His only TD came when Jameis Winston went rogue and called a trick play out of the victory formation. The Pokemon fanatic does tentatively profile as the 1.B option in this backfield, but it'd be surprising to see him hold off the backfield's rising second-year talent for long.
  • KenDre Miller just turned 22 and certainly seems to have the most juice of any RB in New Orleans. This didn't lead to much work in 2023, but he did suffer patella, hamstring and ankle sprains throughout his injury-riddled rookie season.

Bottom line: Kamara (RB17, pick 69 ADP) is basically being priced the same as last year when he was actively dealing with a three-game suspension. While the inefficiency isn't ideal, it's really not much different from what early-round guys like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Rachaad White put forward last season. I'm willing to buy the dip on Kamara in full-PPR formats when I've spent the first five to six rounds accumulating WRs and a QB or TE; chase that volume. Miller (RB44, pick 141.8 ADP) is a solid enough later-round handcuff, but the standalone value is uncertain inside the same backfield that ignored him for most of 2023.

Wide Receiver

Olave has started his career with back-to-back 1,000-plus yard seasons, but nine total TDs have limited him to relatively underwhelming WR26 and WR19 finishes in PPR points per game.

Of course, the story of the 2022 NFL Draft's 11th overall pick's career thus far has been the missed opportunities at hand. ESPN's ninth-best WR in "Open Score" over the past two seasons, ball-watchers are fully aware of just how much meat has been left on the bone here.

We can help quantify this through "Unrealized Air Yards." Air yards measure the distance that any given pass travels (wait for it) through the air. Subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yardage total before taking the difference with total air yards helps us pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.

Sometimes unrealized air yards are more akin to “prayer yards” because the pass wasn’t exactly catchable in the first place, while in other instances can be blamed more so on the WR. As is the case with most things in life: Grinding the film helps add clarity to the situation.

Anyway, just five WRs accumulated over 1,000 unrealized air yards last season:

  1. Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins (1,149)
  2. Saints WR Chris Olave (1,145)
  3. Raiders WR Davante Adams (1,091)
  4. Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley (1,024)
  5. Jets WR Garrett Wilson (1,010)

Yes, it's a shame to see that much wasted opportunity. Also yes, we can be pretty confident at this point that, 1.) Olave is pretty damn good at football, and 2.) This offense is fully willing to feature him as their undisputed No. 1 WR. After all, Olave was one of just eight WRs to demand at least 40% of their offense's air yards and 25% of the targets in 2023.

Dec 3, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a pass against the Detroit Lions during the first half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Further helping matters is the absence of longtime injury-riddled stud Michael Thomas. Note that Olave ripped off PPR WR9, WR19, WR16, WR27 (injured early), WR13, WR63 and WR26 finishes after Thomas was lost for the season in Week 10.

That injury also opened things up for Rashid Shaheed, who returned from a hamstring injury to post a pair of top-24 finishes during the final four weeks of the season. The Saints were happy to feature Olave (86% routes) and Shaheed (79%) as the clear-cut top two WRs ahead of A.T. Perry (59%), Lynn Bowden (23%) and Keith Kirkwood (17%) during this final month stretch.

Intriguingly, the offseason came and went without any serious competition being added to this room with all due respect to fifth-round WR Bub Means and career backups Equanimeous St. Brown and Cedrick Wilson. This should set up Shaheed to work as Carr's clear-cut No. 2 WR — something that could produce fireworks if he manages to maintain his elite early-career efficiency: Shaheed ranks first (!) in yards per target (11.1) among all players with 100-plus targets over the past two seasons. The man is a certified baller who has made the most out of his opportunities since entering the league in 2022.

Bottom line: I'm buying a year-three breakout for Olave and think he belongs in the current second-round conversation, even if that is a steep price to pay for that entire group of WRs in general. Shaheed (WR55, pick 111.6) is also in play, although I usually find myself addressing other positions in that area of the draft due to usually already having a handful of solid WRs rostered at that point.

Tight End

The Saints' official roster lists Taysom Hill as a QB. Many fantasy sites do as well. This makes sense: 35% of his snaps over the past two seasons have come as a QB, while just 17% have come from a traditional inline TE alignment. If anything, Hill's 40% snap rate out of the slot and out wide would indicate a "WR" designation could be in play. Even RB makes some sense considering Hill has had far more rush attempts (177) than targets (53) over the past two years.

Hill isn't good enough to start at any position full-time and doesn't put up enough production to matter in fantasy land at QB, RB or WR. And yet, fantasy sites still list the 33-year-old veteran as a TE because … there really isn't a good reason … and the position is shallow enough in fantasy land to make him matter in a major way.

In 2022, Hill's average of 9.1 PPR points per game was good for 13th-place standing among all TEs. He managed 8.97 PPR points per game in 2023 — 15th among all TEs. Not exactly world-beating numbers here, but his multi-TD boom performances have helped single-handedly win weeks.

Overall, Hill's three performances with 20-plus PPR points per game over the past two seasons are tied for the eighth-most at the position behind only Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet and Evan Engram. Things bend even stronger to Hill's favor in non-PPR leagues where his rushing prowess really stands out.

Of course, Hill doesn't maintain a full-time job as the team's goal line back or as the actual TE because of the presence of Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson. The latter talent has flashed legit high-end receiving upside, but hasn't been given consistent full-time roles in an offense that was content to keep guys like Hill, Foster Moreau and even Jimmy Graham also involved last season. The absence of the latter Saints legend could lead to a few extra red zone targets in 2024; just realize this continues to profile as a committee situation. Johnson's lower leg injury and expectation to “miss a good amount of time” obviously doesn't help matters.

Bottom line: Fantasy Life Projections don't have any of Hill, Johnson or Moreau taking over the lion's share of work in this offense, but the former "TE"'s rushing upside makes him tough to drop too far down the ranks. Ultimately, Hill fits in as a boom-or-bust mid-range TE2 whose booms are admittedly bigger than what most are capable of at the position. Relying on him as your TE1 on a weekly basis doesn't seem wise, although he's a pretty great bench stash/best ball TE2 due to his ever-present potential to break the sport should Carr miss time and the Saints turn back to him under center.

Saints 2024 Season Prediction

The league's reigning eighth-ranked scoring defense added former No. 2 overall pick Chase Young and scooped up Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry with the 41st overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. New Orleans has boasted a top-10 scoring defense in each of the past four seasons — no other defense has a streak longer than three.

And yet, it's the offense that (again) looks to be the problem. It takes a real optimist to look at the offseason additions and concur that things are ready to go from good to great here.

That said, this was a team with an expected win-loss record of 10.5-6.5 when going off their point differential. There's actually room for some positive regression considering the Saints went 3-6 in games decided by eight or fewer points last season. I'm taking over 7.5 wins here, even if Derek Carr and company certainly don't have the look of legit contenders in what should be an improved NFC South.

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