An absolutely electric Week 1 atmosphere was quickly undone when Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles just four snaps into the 2023 season. While the Jets managed to feign competitiveness enough to still end October with a 4-3 record, things quickly unraveled soon afterward to the tune of another 7-10 campaign.

Overall, no NFL team has a longer current season streak without a record over .500 than the Jets (8). Not great, Bob, but then again, 2024 is a new year, and on paper this roster looks ready to do the unthinkable: Compete for a playoff spot.

A quick overview of the Jets' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

While this sort of major turnover on the offensive line would normally be a bit of a red flag, it's actually probably a good thing considering just how bad this group has been in recent history. After all, protecting A-aron is priority No. 1 for Gang Green Nation.

Let's dive into the New York Jets fantasy football outlook for 2024.

New York Jets Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

There's obviously nothing to take away from Rodgers' four snaps with the Jets last season, but it's worth remembering he wasn't entering 2023 at the peak of his powers despite being just one year removed from winning back-to-back MVP awards.

  • 2022: +0.039 EPA per dropback (No. 21), +0.5% completion percentage over expected (No. 14)
  • 2021: +0.259 (No. 1), +5.8% (No. 2)
  • 2020: +0.362 (No. 1), +7.2% (No. 1)

Initially, the public consensus was that the Packers didn't offer the same sort of high-end supporting cast that Rodgers needed to play at an elite level, although Jordan Love's quick ascension in 2023 made that idea a bit harder to believe (with all due respect to Green Bay's influx of talented rookie WRs and TEs).

We can get an idea of how good a QB's offensive environment is by averaging a team's PFF rushing, receiving, pass blocking and run blocking grades (everything except passing). It's not a picture-perfect formula (what is?), but the results match the eye test, particularly in New York:

Jets and Packers rank in Supporting Cast Rating

  • 2023: Jets (31st), Packers (12th)
  • 2022: Jets (31st), Packers (11th)

Yes, 2024 is a new year. Also yes, the actual marquee upgrades for an offense that has scored the NFL's fewest TDs (80) over the past three seasons don't exactly look like enough to take this supporting cast from (arguably worst) to anything close to first:

  • WR Mike Williams: Has multiple 1,000-plus yard seasons to his name, but is far from guaranteed to be his usual big-play self coming off a torn ACL. Williams also will turn 30 in October.
  • WR Malachi Corley: The YAC specialist has earned some Deebo comps during this offseason cycle, but the historical hit rate on players with a high percentage of manufactured touches (low aDOT and low wide alignment rate) is full of landmines.
  • OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, LT Tyron Smith, RT Morgan Moses, LG John Simpson: The veterans are 33, 33 and 26 years of age, respectively, while Fashanu isn't exactly guaranteed to be a stud in Year 1.

As a whole, these moves are good! Both the WR and offensive line rooms are objectively in better states than they were last year … but are we REALLY talking about the sort of moves capable of booming bottom-five performing groups into the sort of game-changing entities that Rodgers might need to regain elite play at this stage of his career?

Obviously, even 70% of what we're used to seeing out of Rodgers would be an upgrade over Zach Wilson, who has functioned as probably the single-worst QB in the NFL since 2021. To be clear: Having Rodgers under center is fantastic news for the Jets' real-life 2024 aspirations; I'm just hesitant to expect too much of a rebound in fantasy land for a 40-year-old veteran coming off an Achilles tear.

Rodgers will be well within the usual Achilles rupture timetable of nine to 12 months by the time next September rolls around; just realize he was already coming off back-to-back-to-back career-low marks in rushing yards per game during his final three years in Green Bay — there's little reason to expect Rodgers to start partying like it's 2020 again on the football field.

Bottom line: The 2022 version of Rodgers finished as just the QB22 in fantasy points per game, and it's tough to objectively call his 2024 setup an upgrade in terms of both his personal athletic upside as well as his supporting cast. Rodgers' QB20 ADP isn't egregious, but I won't be going out of my way to land the elderly QB outside as anything more than a second option in best ball lineups that already have Garrett Wilson.

Running Back

The Jets were careful not to overburden Hall with too heavy of a workload early in 2023 coming off his season-ending 2022 ACL injury … but by the end of the year they said f*ck it and handed the stud RB 36 and 39 combined carries and targets in two of his three final (rather meaningless) games.

This workload was largely what wound up helping Hall reach RB2 overall heights in PPR points and RB6 status on a per-game basis. From an efficiency standpoint, the 2022 second-round pick simply wasn't the same monster on the ground in his encore campaign:

  • Yards per carry: 5.8 vs. 4.5
  • Yards after contact per carry: 4.1 vs. 3.4
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.2 vs. 0.21
  • Explosive run play rate: 19% vs. 9%

Good news: The team's aforementioned improvements at the line of scrimmage and the presence of Rodgers under center should help make life easier for Hall. Give Hall credit for ranking sixth among all qualified RBs in rushing yards over expected per carry (+0.67) behind PFF's sixth-lowest-graded offensive line in run blocking, and it'd also make a lot of sense if the 23-year-old talent is closer to 100% a full season removed from that 2022 knee injury.

Dec 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) carries the ball during the first half against the Washington Commanders at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, it's Hall's potential to (again) handle a heavy pass-game role that really makes him worthy of top-three treatment in fantasy land. Here's last season's leaderboard in RB PPR points per game from purely receiving production:

  1. Christian McCaffrey (10.3)
  2. Alvin Kamara (9.8)
  3. Hall (9.4)

Don't expect Hall to get another game with 16 targets from Trevor Siemian anytime soon, but the fact that he's once again the clear-cut bell-cow RB inside of an offense that has proven willing to quite literally force-feed him the football at times is tough to debate inside what should be an improved scoring environment. For crying out loud: The Jets didn't have a single RB rush attempt from the 1-yard line last year, and they only had one total from inside the 5-yard line — easily the lowest mark in the NFL.

Things get a bit murky behind Hall. Second-year RB Israel Abanikanda was technically the No. 2 down the stretch of last season, but that only amounted to 27 touches during the final five weeks. The team certainly used a pair of Day 3 picks on Wisconsin RB Braelon Allen and South Dakota State RB Isaiah Davis for a reason; it's more likely than not that this would turn into a low-upside three-headed committee in the absence of Hall.

Bottom line: Hall's potential to breeze (Breece, lol, sorry) past 300 touches behind an improved offensive line in a better scoring environment makes him tough to argue with as a top-five RB in 2024. Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson are the only RBs I'd comfortably take ahead of Hall at the moment. Abanikanda is the preferred handcuff, but he's hardly guaranteed to seize that role and is more of an occasional last-round dart than a priority late-round target.

Wide Receiver

Wilson is an absolute stud and if you disagree, that's on you.

Sadly, the 2022 NFL Draft's No. 10 overall pick's 2023 campaign was more so defined by the lack of catchable opportunities he received. There were way too many examples of Wilson springing wide open … only to never get a real chance to make a play.

ESPN's "Open Score" metric demonstrates the reality that Wilson was one of the position's best separators last season:

  1. Keenan Allen (91)
  2. CeeDee Lamb (85)
  3. Kalif Raymond (84 – don't laugh, Kalif is a baller)
  4. Tyreek Hill (83)
  5. Garrett Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Brown (82)

Overall, Davante Adams (54) and Wilson (53) led the NFL in total targets that were deemed uncatchable by PFF.

Speaking of Adams, remember when Rodgers fed him 169 targets during their final season together? Wilson (168) nearly met that mark last year despite operating in an offense that threw the football at a neutral rate throughout 2023. Early Fantasy Life projections see a similar phenomenon occurring in 2024, as Wilson's 145 projected targets are good for the sixth-highest mark in the NFL.

Oct 15, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) gains yards after catch during the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Summary: Wilson is a great football player who has been forced to deal with essentially league-worst QB play throughout his first two seasons in the NFL. It'd make a whole lot of sense if this ascending third-year stud finally puts up the sort of production to match his obvious talent with Rodgers under center; their brief, yet electric, preseason showing together sure seemed to indicate big things were on the way.

I'm less inclined to chase the rest of these pass-game options.

Thirty in October, Father Time hasn't been kind to WRs like Williams around this age, and failure to return from last season's knee injury at 100% could be especially problematic for a pass-catcher who has leaned heavily on his physicality and athleticism over the years.

It's not like Williams exactly made a habit of consistently putting up big-time numbers with the Chargers over the years despite the presence of consistently awesome QB play:

  • 2022: 13.6 PPR points per game (WR21 among all WRs to play 8-plus games)
  • 2021: 15.4 (WR13)
  • 2020: 10.3 (WR52)
  • 2019: 10.8 (WR46)
  • 2018: 11.3 (WR39)
  • 2017: 2.1 (WR128)

Upgrade over Allen Lazard? Absolutely, and the expectation from Williams himself, learned doctors and NFL reporters is that he'll be ready to go by Week 1. Still, I have a hard time clicking Williams' name over similar upside No. 2 WRs with far more youth and good health on their side like Diontae Johnson, Jameson Williams and Curtis Samuel at that stage of drafts.

And then there's Corley, who is apparently roommates with Rodgers! The collegiate screen merchant does indeed add a different element to this offense; it's just tough to see how a third-round rookie will rise to anything close to the top of this pecking order. Fantasy Life projections have Corley finishing fifth on the Jets in targets — not ideal when it's impossible to score fantasy points without the football in the year 2024 (thanks, Biden).

Bottom line: Wilson is deserving of top-10 treatment at the position alongside fellow ballers who are easily their passing game's No. 1 option like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Drake London. It wouldn't be surprising to see Wilson closer to WR1 than WR10 this time next year thanks to the talent and volume on hand. Williams and Corely profile more as clear-cut complementary options; neither is a priority at cost in fantasy drafts of most shapes and sizes.

Tight End

Conklin has exactly 87 targets in three straight years, which is honestly impressive.

Of course, he hasn't exactly made the most out of these opportunities, finishing as the TE18, TE21 and most recently TE21 in PPR points per game. Getting a QB upgrade should help, but then again Conklin ranks just 30th among 36 qualified TEs in ESPN's receiver rating during this span — we aren't exactly dealing with a high-end talent at the position here.

Perhaps more problematic is the dicey week-to-week usage. Conklin didn't clear a 70% route rate from Week 9 to Week 15, only surging back to a full-time role once Jeremy Ruckert suffered a season-ending concussion.

The departure of C.J. Uzomah does indeed open up some opportunity here, but this still has the looks of a low-volume position that will probably be split closer to 50/50 than usual.

Bottom line: Conklin deserves the TE1 nod here, but he's tough to squeeze in the position's top-20 and is only a late-round target on best ball teams that are looking for an extra late-round stacking partner for Rodgers.

New York Jets 2024 Season Prediction

Sauce Garner and company figure to once again supply one of the league's better overall defenses, while a little help from the Injury Gods should put A-aron and the offense closer to the league median when it comes to scoring.

Inside a division that seemingly offers weaker versions of the Bills, Dolphins and Patriots alike relative to recent history, I'm actually in on the Jets' 9.5 OVER win total despite my reluctance to crown the offense as a top-10 scoring group. Look for Gang Green to be a better real-life success story than fantasy gold mine outside of their volume-hog RB1 and WR1.

More 2024 NFL Team Previews