Days 1 & 2 of the NFL draft are in the books, and it's time to take a look at how things played out. As in life, the NFL Draft has “winners & losers,” and today, Matt LaMarca is here to see who has won and lost so far.
Winners
Carolina Panthers
- First Round No. 1 Overall: QB Bryce Young
- Second Round No. 39 Overall: WR Jonathan Mingo
- Third Round No. 80 Overall: Edge DJ Johnson
I was honestly a bit skeptical about the Panthers as a landing spot for Bryce Young.
They were one of the most run-heavy organizations in football last season, especially after Steve Wilks took over as the interim head coach. Overall, the Panthers’ quarterbacks averaged just under 191 yards per game, finishing with 16 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions.
Making matters worse, the team lost D.J. Moore in the offseason, who was easily the best thing their passing attack had going for it. He led the league with a 53.38% air yard share, and no one else in football was particularly close. He also led the league in target share, so he was a massive part of their offense despite a down statistical season.
Now for the good news. The Panthers have completely revamped their coaching staff heading into the 2023-24 season, and they have an impressive track record of quarterback success.
Frank Reich has had plenty of success with guys like Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Matt Ryan.
Their offensive coordinator, Thomas Brown, comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Josh McCown will serve as the quarterback coach after a 16-year career.
You could argue about whether Young was the right choice at No. 1 overall, but he should be put into a position to succeed with this group around him.
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Additionally, the Panthers’ receiving corps doesn’t look quite as bad as it once did. Adam Thielen is a solid presence at the position, while they spent their second-round selection on Jonathan Mingo.
Mingo is one of the bigger receivers in the class at 6’1” and 226 pounds, and he graded out in the 96th percentile in Speed Score and 91st percentile in Burst Score (per PlayerProfiler). It’s also possible that Terrace Marshall Jr. makes a leap in his third professional season.
Overall, the Panthers’ offense ranked 29th in the league in passing yards per game last season and had virtually no viable fantasy options at quarterback or pass-catcher. That could change in 2023-24.
- Grade: B+
Indianapolis Colts
- First round, No. 4 overall: QB Anthony Richardson
- Second round, No. 44 overall: CB Julius Brents
- Third round, No. 79 overall: WR Josh Downs
The Colts’ offense has been stuck in the stone age ever since Andrew Luck abruptly retired. Now, the Colts are set to join the modern age with Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
New head coach Shane Steichen was instrumental in turning Jalen Hurts into an MVP candidate, and Steichen gets the chance to do the same with Richardson.
Richardson is a raw prospect, starting just 13 games at the University of Florida. However, he may be the most dynamic athlete ever to enter the NFL at quarterback.
He possesses the same elite speed as Lamar Jackson – Richardson was 0.01 seconds faster in his 40-yard dash time and does it in a much bigger frame. He checks in at 6’4” and 244 pounds, so he shouldn’t have the same durability concerns.
Richardson’s also surrounded by talent. Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in football, while Michael Pittman Jr. is a capable top receiver. Alec Pierce also showed some signs during his rookie season, and he brings legit home-run-hitting ability to the receiver position.
There will likely be some growing pains with Richardson, and there’s no guarantee he will start Week 1. That said, he’s a big play waiting to happen. The team ranked tied for 30th in points per game in 2022-23, and they should be more exciting at a minimum next year.
- Grade: A
Atlanta Falcons
- First Round No. 8 Overall: RB Bijan Robinson
- Second Round No. 38 Overall: OT Matthew Bergeron
- Third Round No. 75 Overall: Edge Zach Harrison
The Falcons have quietly had a really good offseason. They entered free agency with the second-most cap space in football and have not been shy about spending. They signed Jesse Bates to a monster deal at safety and a whopping 28 players across all positions. Atlanta could be poised to contend for a division crown in a wide-open NFC South.
The team drafted Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick, which goes against everything we’ve learned about the RB position over the years. Running backs are the most replaceable position in football, so using a premium draft pick on one feels like a mistake.
While that might be true in the long run, Robinson has the potential to emerge as a legit RB1 for fantasy purposes immediately. Considering the type of investment the Falcons made, he should earn a massive workload right out of the gate:
Robinson possesses everything you look for in a running back. He was insanely productive in college, racking up 1,580 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns last season. He’s also active in the passing attack, finishing with 60 receptions in his three years at Texas.
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He joins a team that LOVED to run the football last season. They ranked 31st in pass rate over expectation (PROE), leading only the Justin Fields-led Bears. In the red zone, no team had a lower PROE than Atlanta.
Robinson does face some competition with Cordarelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier, but you simply don’t draft an RB in the top 10 if you’re not going to feature him. With an unproven quarterback under-center in Desmond Ridder, we could be looking at the same level of volume as Najee Harris, who led the league with 381 touches as a rookie.
Adding Robinson to Kyle Pitts and Drake London gives the team legit weapons throughout their offense. It remains to be seen if Ridder can take advantage, but this team has plenty of upside.
- Grade: A-
Losers
Seattle Seahawks
- First Round No. 5 Overall: CB Devon Witherspoon
- First Round No. 20 Overall: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Second Round No. 37 Overall: OLB Derick Hall
- Second Round No. 52 Overall: RB Zach Charbonnet
Pete Carroll just can’t help himself. The Seahawks ended up with the No. 5 overall pick in the draft thanks to the Russell Wilson trade, putting themselves in a position to draft an elite prospect. Three quarterbacks went in the first four picks, so the Seahawks had their choice of any non-quarterback outside of Will Anderson Jr.
They chose Devon Witherspoon, giving Carroll the type of cornerback that he covets.
That type of selection should help their team overall, but it gives the Seahawks a slight downgrade from a fantasy perspective.
They were abysmal defensively last year, which led to tons of high-scoring affairs. If the team isn’t surrendering as many points this season, they may not have to throw quite as much as they did in 2022-23.
Their second first-round pick was used on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which is definitely an excellent addition. He went much later than anticipated, and JSN is capable of playing alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
The Seahawks used three-receiver sets at a high-frequency last season, with Marquise Goodwin, Dee Eskridge, and Laquon Treadwell combining for 700 snaps. JSN should immediately step into the slot role, an area where he excelled in college.
Still, it’s fair to question whether or not this move is good for Seattle’s fantasy prospects.
Their targets were highly condensed among Metcalf and Lockett last season, with the two players combining for a 47% of the targets and 66.5% of the air yards. With another mouth to feed, both players could be looking at a reduction in value.
The real killer for the Seahawks was drafting Zach Charbonnet in the second round. As I said, Carroll just can’t help himself.
The Seahawks appeared to hit a home run with Kenneth Walker in last year’s draft, with the second-round pick finishing second in the Offensive Rookie of the Year Voting.
Rashaad Penny is now in Philadelphia, and the coast appeared clear for Walker to take over as the team’s feature back. He was being drafted as the No. 6 RB on Underdog Fantasy, checking in with a mid-second-round ADP.
With Charbonnet now in the mix, that dream is officially dead. Walker will likely continue to serve as the team’s top runner, but Charbonnet is going to have a role. He’s a complete back with the prototypical size for the position, and he’s displayed some upside in the passing attack.
More alarmingly, the Seahawks could return to the smash mouth style of football that Carroll has employed in the past. They ranked eighth in pass rate over expectation last season, but with two second-round RBs in the building, they could regress heavily in that area next year.
- Grade: C-
New England Patriots
- First Round No. 17 Overall: CB Christian Gonzalez
- Second Round No. 46 Overall: Edge Keion White
- Third Round No. 76 Overall: LB Marte Mapu
What drafting running backs is to Pete Carroll, trading down is to Bill Belichick. The guy absolutely loves to trade down, and he used that strategy to help build a dynasty.
Of course, landing the greatest quarterback in NFL history in the sixth-round also helps.
The Patriots were able to trade down in the first round and still managed to grab an excellent cornerback prospect in Christian Gonzalez. It was probably one of the best pure values of the entire night.
That said, the Patriots still haven’t selected an offensive player in the 2023 NFL Draft. That’s a bold strategy, Cotton.
I know the Patriots are trying the novel idea of having a real offensive coordinator in 2023-24, but that doesn’t mean Bill O’Brien can magically fix all of the Patriots’ woes.
Specifically, the passing game needs a lot of help. The team ranked 20th in passing yards per game last season, and while that’s not an awful mark, Mac Jones took a clear step back. His adjusted yards per attempt dipped from 7.0 as a rookie to just 6.3, and he finished with just 14 touchdown passes and 14 starts. Jones ultimately finished as the No. 24 quarterback per Pro Football Focus after ranking 12th as a rookie.
Jones also lost his favorite receiver in the offseason, with Jakobi Meyers moving from New England to Las Vegas. They did bring in JuJu Smith-Schuster to replace him, but JuJu hasn’t cracked 1,000 receiving yards since 2018.
After that, the cupboard is pretty bare. DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and Tyquan Thornton are the most notable names at receiver, which is why this team was consistently linked to one of the first-round pass-catchers in the 2023 Draft.
Instead of making life easier for their young quarterback, Jones will arguably have even less talent to work with next season.
Maybe all of their struggles drafting receivers in the past means Belichick has just given up entirely. Regardless, Jones will have his work cut out for him.
- Grade: F
