Say it with me everyone: Buccaneers country, let’s Bake.
On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Baker Mayfield agreed to a three-year deal for $100 million in total and $50 million guaranteed, per ESPN. Good for Baker! This is a guy who was largely written off as a total bust after his up-and-down tenure in Cleveland and disastrous 2022 season with the Panthers. All Mayfield could fetch on the open market this time last year was a one-year deal worth a maximum of $8.5 million – to compete with Kyle Trask!
What a difference a year makes – kudos to Mayfield for betting on himself and winning in a major way.
Of course, bringing back Mayfield always made the most sense for Tampa Bay due to the lack of possible upgrades in free agency other than Kirk Cousins, and their general lack of high-end draft capital (26th overall first-round pick). The soon-to-be 29-year-old gunslinger also simply earned this contract by posting solid numbers all season long on his way to leading Tampa Bay to a playoff W:
Among 39 QBs with 200-plus dropbacks in 2023-24 (including postseason):
- EPA per dropback: +0.137 (No. 9)
- CPOE: -0.2% (No. 22)
- PFF pass grade: 74.8 (No. 18)
- Passer rating: 96 (No. 12)
- Yards per attempt: 7.4 (No. 12)
Wild but true: Only Patrick Mahomes (7) and Josh Allen (4) have more playoff games with three-plus passing TDs than Mayfield (3) over the past five years.
Remember: It’s not like Mayfield has simply always “sucked.” He owned the rookie passing TD record (27) before Justin Herbert (31) came along. There’s also something to be said about leading the Browns to their first playoff victory in *checks notes* 26 years. Obviously, things went south in 2021 and beyond; just realize playing through a torn shoulder labrum didn’t exactly make life easy in an organization that hasn’t exactly earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to developing high-end QBs (other than Joe Flacco, of course).
Looking ahead to 2024: The loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales somewhat muddles Mayfield’s projection, although Baker and new offensive coordinator Liam Coen are at least familiar with each other from their time spent with the Rams in 2022. Mayfield has already spoken about how Coen brings a similar system to Tampa Bay.
Luckily, the Bucs have also already locked in Mike Evans for the next two seasons, meaning this offense returns pretty much all of their key contributors from last season. It’d make sense if some level of continuity really helps out Mayfield considering he’s played in four separate offenses during the past three regular seasons and dealt with seven different offensive coordinators since being selected with the No. 1 overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft.
As for Mayfield’s own standing in fantasy land: The reigning QB19 in fantasy points per game averaged a solid 16.1 fantasy points per contest in 2023 – less than one point removed from guys like Jared Goff (17), Trevor Lawrence (16.4) and Matthew Stafford (16.2).
And yet, early ADP has not given Baker the benefit of the doubt:
Underdog Fantasy QB18-24
- Jayden Daniels (QB18)
- Matthew Stafford (QB19)
- Kirk Cousins (QB20)
- Drake Maye (QB21)
- Aaron Rodgers (QB22)
- Deshaun Watson (QB23)
- Baker Mayfield (QB24)
In addition to the aforementioned continuity factor, another argument in favor of Mayfield taking another step forward in 2024 comes down to the reality that he was actually one of the league’s top-eight most-impacted QBs from drops last season. Evans had FAR more good than bad plays last season; just realize there were some pretty brutal near-miss TDs in there.
Ultimately, Mayfield’s lack of rushing upside inside of an offense that posted a middling +1% dropback rate over expected last regular season caps his fantasy upside, but he does present a bargain-based QB2 option in Superflex/2-QB formats relative to fellow pocket passers like Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, who are each going more than two rounds ahead of him in early Underdog Drafts. Value, baby.
