NFL Free Agency: Bengals releasing Joe Mixon, signing Zack Moss
One of the more prolific offenses in the NFL just made a major change in their backfield.
The Bengals released longtime bell-cow RB Joe Mixon and signed Zack Moss to a two-year, $8 million deal — setting up Moss to work as their potential 1.A RB alongside rising second-year speedster Chase Brown.
Focusing first on the man of the hour: The fit couldn't be better for Moss. He excelled in the Colts' 11-personnel, shotgun-heavy offense last season … and now finds himself in another offense that loves to attack its opponents on the ground from the same look.
Santana and Sinorice's cousin certainly proved capable of handling a featured role on the ground during the first part of the 2023 season with Jonathan Taylor (back) sidelined:
- Week 2: 18-88-1 rushing, 4-19-0 receiving
- Week 3: 30-122-0, 2-23-1
- Week 4: 18-70-0, 0-0-0
- Week 5: 23-165-2, 2-30-0
Moss played well enough to actively eat into JT’s workload upon return, ultimately finishing the year as one of the league’s top-five most-efficient RBs in rushing yards over expected per carry (Next-Gen Stats):
- De'Von Achane (+2.87)
- Christian McCaffrey (+1.32)
- Jaylen Warren (+1.11)
- James Conner (+1.02)
- Zack Moss (+0.71)
It’s not a given that Moss immediately rises up to the top of the Bengals’ depth chart, but the reality that Brown never eclipsed even a 30% snap rate on offense last season bodes well for his chances of at least handling early-down and short-yardage duties. That’s not a bad gig inside an offense that ranked seventh in scoring in both 2021 and 2022 with a fully healthy version of Joe Burrow under center.
Don't expect Moss to steal Mixon's current RB27 ADP immediately, but it'd make sense if the Bengals' newfound lead early-down back joins Brown (RB32) inside the position's top-36 options ahead of August. We’ll see what happens in the draft; just realize 15-plus carries and goal-line work in this lethal offense could lead to TD-dependent RB2 upside – a discount David Montgomery or Najee Harris if you will.
This move should also probably be viewed as a positive for Brown, who can absolutely fly. The 2023 fifth-round pick isn’t small enough (5’10”, 209 pounds) to necessarily be pigeon-holed into just pass-down work, but either way: Kudos to Brown for making the absolute most out of his opportunities through the air as a rookie:
Among 67 RBs with 15-plus targets:
- PFF receiving grade: 81.1 (No. 4)
- Yards per route run: 4.46 (No. 1)
- Targets per route run: 42.9% (No. 1)
- Passer rating when targeted: 132.2 (No. 2)
- Yards per reception: 11.1 (No. 1)
Small-sample size be damned: Brown presents borderline RB3 value in full-PPR formats, and potential BOOM upside should a bigger role present itself down the road.
And then there’s Mixon. If you read Matthew Berry’s 25 most interesting things he heard at the combine article then you would already know that the 27-year-old veteran was expected to be released. While the veteran deserves credit for racking up 8,551 total yards and 62 TDs during his seven seasons in Cincinnati, he’s struggled to consistently crack four yards per carry over the years and has had some off-the-field issues of late.
There seemingly aren’t too many backfields left that seem to be in dire need of a new lead early-down back. The Cowboys or Ravens would certainly be the dream landing spots for Mixon, but he could struggle to replicate his typical double-digit TD scoring upside in less fantasy-friendly offensive environments like Las Vegas or Minnesota.
As is the case with most halfway decent RBs: Opportunity is simply king here. Moss has it today, and we’ll see if Mixon finds someone to give him some tomorrow.
