One of free agency’s biggest WR dominoes fell after just a little more than an hour into legal tampering: The Jaguars have signed former Bills WR Gabe Davis to a three-year, $39 million deal that could get as high as $50 million with incentives.
The biggest takeaway here comes down to the likelihood that the Jaguars will seemingly be moving on from Calvin Ridley. While Ridley certainly had his fair share of brutal drops and near-miss TDs last season, he’s considered by many to still be the best WR on the open market regardless.
Glass-half-full Jaguars fans should lean on the fact that Davis has an argument as the better deep threat. The 24-year-old talent ranks second in yards per reception since entering the league while also boasting the second-highest average target depth.
Glass-half-empty Jaguars fans will point out that the leader in both those categories … is Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Davis’ overall underlying efficiency numbers are … not great. Among 95 WRs with 150-plus targets since 2020 (including playoffs):
- PFF receiving grade: 73.9 (No. 57)
- Yards per route run: 1.51 (No. 58)
- Targets per route run: 15.5% (No. 82)
Give Davis credit for his TD-scoring ability. Including playoffs, Davis has caught a whopping 33 TDs since entering the NFL back in 2020 – tied with CeeDee Lamb (!) for the 10th-highest mark in the league. Not too shabby, especially when considering Davis was regularly asked to be the No. 2 pass-game option behind Stefon Diggs.
That said, it remains to be seen if he’ll have anywhere near as many fantasy-friendly scoring chances inside this Jacksonville offense. Going from Josh Allen to Trevor Lawrence isn't exactly an upgrade (to be fair, it's pretty damn hard to find an upgrade from Allen anywhere); warranting a top-36 ranking for Davis ahead of 2024 is going to be TOUGH.
Think of the now ex-Bills veteran as a boom-or-bust WR4 who is suddenly inside of a passing attack that figures to not be achieving the former outcome as often as his last employer.
Reminder: Davis finished with *zero* receiving yards in five separate games last season despite existing in a Bills offense that has largely been dying to find a legit No. 2 weapon alongside Diggs for the better part of the last three years.
The real winners from this move: Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.
Both now seem cemented as T-Law's top-two pass-game options, as it’d be surprising to see the organization:
- Devote much more money to its pass-catchers in free agency.
- Spend one of their three top-100 picks on a WR or TE in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Kirk now warrants borderline WR2 treatment alongside guys like Drake London and DeVonta Smith; he’s a massive value at his present way-too-early WR35 ADP. A similar sentiment is true for Engram (TE8 ADP), who oddly hasn’t been getting much benefit of the doubt in early drafts despite finishing last season as the TE4 in PPR points per game.
Also keep an eye on this Bills WR room, as they are suddenly more thin than ever outside of Diggs and Khalil Shakir. Now might be a good time for general manager Brandon Beane to use a day one or day two pick on the position – something he hasn’t done since 2017 (Zay Jones).
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