With the NFL offseason quickly approaching, it is time to dive into available free agents. Using a data-driven approach, Dwain analyzes the top free agents from a fantasy football lens.
Methodology and reasoning
We will use four critical criteria to rank TEs (in order of importance):
- Target-earning ability: targets per game, target share (excluding games missed) and targets per route run (TPRR)
- Air yards: air yards per game and air yards share (excluding games missed)
- Yards per route run (YPRR)
- Age at the beginning of the 2024 season
What matters most?
In order to identify the data points that matter most for TEs in fantasy football, I researched fantasy performance since 2011 to answer two questions:
- Which non-production stats (i.e., not receptions, yards and TDs) have the strongest relationship with scoring fantasy points?
- Of those stats, which ones have staying power year over year (YoY)?
While production stats are great, they don’t always capture intent. If we understand which stats drive production, they should also have a strong relationship with fantasy scoring. And if they are sticky from one year to the next, that makes them valuable in projecting a player’s future output.
The results were very similar to what I found for WRs. That isn’t surprising, considering the positions are very similar in how they accumulate fantasy points.
Of the 50-plus non-production data points I analyzed, they were the only two with a score above .400 in both areas — targets and air yards.
When analyzing the relationship with PPR scoring, YPRR was close to air yards but offered a significantly weaker YoY signal. Still, if combining the two data points, YPRR ranked third in meaningful non-production — the same as we saw with WRs.
This data also confirms that we care more about routes than plays per game regarding fantasy points. However, how coaches divide up playing time at the position can vary depending on the scheme and personal preference, contributing to a lower YoY signal.
Think of Kyle Pitts. He was never able to earn a full-time role under Arthur Smith. He was pigeonholed as a receiving TE, but Sam LaPorta (also a receiving TE) was set free by Ben Johnson.
How does changing teams impact targets, air yards and YPRR?
While landing on a new team can often bring excitement for a potential upgrade, the other pasture isn’t always greener. Historically, TEs have lost some of their YoY signal in the areas we care about most.
We have seen several high-end TE fantasy assets take a dramatic points-per-game hit after changing teams via free agency or trade.
- Jimmy Graham: 14.6 (Saints), 11.0 (Seahawks)
- Austin Hooper: 14.6 (Falcons), 8.7 (Browns)
- Julius Thomas: 12.6 (Broncos), 10.1 (Jaguars)
Where Graham’s dip was mainly related to TD variance, Hooper saw his routes cut from 37 to 23 per game. Despite his $44M contract, Kevin Stefanski opted to form a rotation with former first-rounder David Njoku and rookie Harrison Bryant.
These scenarios don’t make it wrong to bet on the talented TEs that make a team switch, but we should be cognizant of the depth chart and the potential for a rotation. Of course, this is true for every tight-end room when there is a shakeup.
How important is age?
Admittedly, the approach I use here has flaws due to survivorship bias. Essentially, the good TEs continue playing while the less talented options weed themselves out. That combination of events elevates the average score for the TEs continuing to play (since they are good).
However, for the purposes of this exercise, we can still glean takeaways from the data. The main one is that TEs who hang around can perform at similar levels deep into their mid-30s.
Now that we know the why behind the chosen data points, let’s dive into the 2024 free-agent TEs.
Free Agent TE Rankings
1. Dalton Schultz
Schultz has been a borderline TE1-level target earner over the last three seasons, with at least 5.3 targets per game every year. However, his air yards have been underwhelming, along with his YPRR marks.
This type of TE profile has more value in PPR formats but has challenges in standard leagues. In a pass-friendly offense with low target competition — especially at the slot and RB positions — Schultz should find his way into the low-end TE1 conversation.
Schultz is now set to return to the Texans on a three-year $36M deal. That means he gets to play with one of the best young QBs in the NFL. However, the target competition will be strong, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell flashing high-end ability in 2023. Despite the challenges, Schultz could have landed in a worse situation in free agency.
Fantasy outlook: Schultz is a borderline TE1 who offers upside if Dell or Collins misses time.
2. Gerald Everett
It feels like we have been waiting on the Everett breakout since the Reagan administration, but his highest PPG finish is TE16 in seven campaigns. Last season looked like an opportunity for Everett to break free of his limited route participation woes under Kellen Moore, but it didn’t come to fruition.
Sep 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Los Angeles Chargers tight end Gerald Everett (7) runs after the catch against the Minnesota Vikings cornerback Akayleb Evans (21) in the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
His target share came in below low-end TE1 levels due to his 53% route participation, but per usual he teased us with a mid-range TE1-worthy TPRR of 21%. Everett has reached 21% or higher in three of his last five seasons.
While Everett is an athletic TE who can create after the catch, he has never been a high aDOT player. When you add that to his limited routes, it is bad news for his air yards.
After so many coordinators have passed on giving Everett a significant role, he might be typecast as a situational player. The best-case scenario for Everett is landing on a pass-first team that doesn’t deploy heavy personnel packages often.
Fantasy outlook: If Everett ever gets an 80% route participation, he would profile like Evan Engram. However, it will require a great landing spot and some imagination to forecast that role, keeping Everett in the mid-range to low-end TE2 conversation in most landing spots.
3. Noah Fant
Fant was the No. 20 draft selection in the 2019 draft, but he has been unable to live up to those expectations in his first five seasons split between the Broncos and Seahawks. Last season, his target share, TPRR, air yards share and YPRR hit career lows. He was well below low-end TE1 thresholds across the board, with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba hogging most of the targets.
Still, he will be just shy of 27 (26.8) when the season starts, and there are some positive data points to lean on from his early career.
- 2020: 17% target share, 22% TPRR, 12% air yards share, 1.64 YPRR
- 2021: 17% target share, 20% TPRR, 13% air yards share, 1.52 YPRR
Fant posted a lowly 49% route participation last year, thanks to the rotational approach of Pete Carroll and Shane Waldron. However, Fant profiles similarly to other YAC merchants with low aDOTs, like Evan Engram, and could surprise on a team that doesn’t force him into a rotation.
Fantasy outlook: Betting on late-career breakouts from guys who haven’t done it at this point in their careers isn’t a winning long-term bet. However, any TE in a full-time role (over 80% route participation) has a good chance of offering low-end TE1 value, and Fant has flashed the traits that could push him toward mid-range TE1 territory in that scenario.
4. Hunter Henry
Early in Henry’s career, he was a borderline low-end TE1 from a target-earning perspective and flashed high-end TE1 potential in YPRR. But over his last four campaigns, he has been mid-range TE2 material.
Dec 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) makes the touchdown catch against Kansas City Chiefs safety Mike Edwards (21) in the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Things were pretty ugly in 2023 despite the Patriots’ lack of target competition, with Henry failing to reach any low-end TE1 thresholds.
If an NFL team is looking for a veteran in-line TE who can give them snaps, Henry fits the bill, but it will take a lot of work to get excited about him in fantasy, regardless of how strong the landing spot appears. At the TE position, year-to-year TD variance is a significant factor in who makes it into low-end TE1 territory, which is Henry's most likely path to relevance.
Fantasy outlook: Henry is a mid-range to low-end TE2 who could end up with a surprise low-end TE1 season if he luckboxes a significant TD season.
5. Mike Gesicki
Gesicki posted career lows in TPRR and YPRR in 2023 after leaving the Dolphins for the Patriots. After six seasons, the former second-round NFL draft pick only has one TE1 finish to his name, which was back in 2020.
Early in his career, Gesicki flashed seam-stretching ability and pulled down two mid-range TE1 air yard seasons with 20% and 22% marks in 2020 and 2021. Unfortunately, Gesicki only has one low-end TE1 target-earning season on his resume, and we shouldn’t expect a sudden turnaround.
Fantasy outlook: If Gesicki catches lightning in a bottle with his landing spot, he could offer low-end TE1 potential but is most likely a low-end to mid-range TE2 in most runouts of the 2024 season.
Other Notable Free Agents
Austin Hooper
Hooper operated in a rotation with second-round draft pick Michael Mayer in 2023. The veteran reached or tied career lows in all the data categories we care about. However, if I were to pick one TE outside the top five above who could have a spike low-end TE1 season in the right spot, it would be Hooper. He has two top-12 finishes and has neared or reached low-end TE1 TPRR marks in four of the last five seasons.
Johnny Mundt
Mundt has historically operated more as a blocker, but after an injury to T.J. Hockenson, he stepped into a more prominent role late in 2023. He hit career-high marks, reaching low-end TE1 levels in TPRR and YPRR, albeit on a small sample of 115 routes. Mundt isn’t likely to make noise in fantasy in 2024, but he is a name to remember if a teammate suffers an injury that opens the door to more playing time.
Irv Smith Jr., Harrison Bryant and Adam Trautman
These options have yet to do enough to warrant consideration unless they land somewhere with absolutely zero route and target competition. Even then, we are likely in a hope-and-pray-he-catches-enough-TDs scenario.
