I’m still processing the Wild Card games and how slim the margins were for a few teams. Cincinnati’s especially, as I’m a fan and live in the area. But as my blood pressure comes down from last week’s games, we’ve got another round to prepare for in just a few days.
The Divisional Round gives us fewer teams, but more scrutiny when diving into the matchups. You’ll hear every analyst pour over any potential scenario for these games. Our team will do the same through game previews and content throughout the week. And our look into the updated ELO model will be no different.
Fantasy Life's Divisional Round Power Rankings
Big Takeaway: Risers and Fallers
As explained up top, our ELO model accounts for each win and its quality (e.g., point differential, strength of opponent). But a few teams got hot at the right time, giving us the Divisional Round schedule we’ve got ahead. So, instead of just breaking down the ranks, I took a new approach.
A team’s Average ELO Delta is the difference between their ELO per game over their last eight contests and their overall ELO, which uses every match. Positive values mean that a team is hitting its stride at the right time. And Jacksonville couldn’t have asked for a better point in the season to give their best performance.
In his last eight games, Trevor Lawrence has averaged two touchdowns per game, eclipsed 300 yards three times, and most importantly, come away with a W in six straight contests. Sheil Kapadia’s tweet perfectly summarizes one of the wilder games of the weekend. But, of course, we’ve got another way to look at Lawrence’s comeback.
First, salute to Anthony Reinhard for putting together the EPA charts. Second, look at the V notch midway through Saturday’s game. Lawrence went from averaging -0.84 EPA per play in the first half to 0.62 in the final two quarters. Essentially, he played like Patrick Mahomes for a half. He’ll need to do the same for 60 minutes to hang with the Chiefs, but the Chiefs have come out flat to start their last few games and the game total has ticked up since it opened at 50.5 points. So it’s no surprise the Jaguars are the biggest risers after rallying for another post-season game. But the model doesn’t always reward teams for getting the W.
Here’s where having a hot start ruins the ELO calculations for a playoff victory. The Giants won six of their first seven games, but the victories against the Ravens and Jaguars earlier in the season boosted their overall ELO total. As a result, their last eight games (including Sunday’s win) fall short of their early-season accomplishments. But don’t worry. Daniel Jones didn’t make NFL history without making this offense look potent.
New York was the third-most efficient offense in the Wild Card round. They had eight drives and came away with points on five of them. But let’s say you think Jones is a gimmick. Brian Daboll’s use of pre-snap motion is just window dressing to hide his quarterback’s deficiencies. Well, even if you believe that, the other pieces of the offense are still showing out.
After Monday night, Darius Slayton (46 yards after the catch) and Isaiah Hodgins (37) are top-five in YAC amongst all playoff WRs. In YPRR, Hodgins is also sixth of 27 receivers with five or more targets. And, of course, Saquon Barkley tied for second in total explosive runs. So, while the Giants may technically be a faller, I’d still bet on a Giants upset after last weekend’s performance.
Most Overrated Team: 49ers (Power Rank: 2)
Forget what I said last week about the 49ers. They’re still a top-tier squad and one most AFC teams don’t want to face for the Lombardi trophy. And after cruising past the Seahawks, they have the second-highest odds in the NFC of reaching the Super Bowl. But finding flaws in an offense is part of playoff football, and they may have one that the Cowboys can exploit.
Quick aside: San Francisco is the only team with more cumulative expected points added on defense than offense. It’s no wonder 49ers’ DC DeMeco Ryans has to juggle his schedule for head-coaching interviews this cycle. And while having an elite defense may very well be the reason they win it all, complementary support from the offense would also be nice.
At first glance, there’s no reason to panic about Brock Purdy’s first playoff start. He eclipsed 300 yards, had multiple passing scores, and even found the paint as a rusher. But two of his touchdowns came on check-downs behind the line of scrimmage. Purdy contributed just eight yards to Deebo Samuel’s 74-yard scamper to the end zone. There’s no hate in pointing out that the 49ers’ personnel and coaching cover up Purdy’s mistakes. But if they get into pure-passing situations, there may be an issue.
I get that this is a one-game sample. I also recognize Purdy only threw the ball seven times on third down. However, the Seahawks blitzed once and got pressure on another attempt. So, he had a clean pocket on a majority of those throws. And yet, he had the second-lowest completion percentage over expected of the remaining quarterbacks. Plus, he threw short of the sticks on two of the converted third downs.
Tom Brady may be washed, but he was more accurate than Purdy in the same situation on Monday night (+1.8% CPOE) and his 46.7% third-down conversion rate is marginally better than Purdy’s (42.9%). The 49ers closed out the regular season third in EPA per play after Purdy took over. But Dallas’ rushing defense (5th in run defense DVOA for the Wild Card round) may force SF into pure passing situations, putting the game on Purdy’s shoulders.
Most Underrated Team: Cowboys (Power Rank: 6)
This seems like a no-brainer after Monday night. I’ll admit I had my concerns about Dallas’ offense heading into the match, but Dak Prescott reaffirmed my confidence in him as a high-end starter after stumbling in Week 18.
My first takeaway from watching the Cowboys on Monday night was that the offense flowed through Dak. Of the top-3 teams in EPA per play from the Wild Card round (Giants, 49ers, and Cowboys), Dallas was the only team with a negative EPA per rush. Prescott overcame the team’s lacking run game with one of the most-efficient passing performances of the weekend. However, he did it differently than his peers.
I mentioned Brock Purdy’s reliance on his receiver’s ability to create plays rather than being the catalyst for a 49ers’ touchdown himself. He had 55.7% of his passing yards produced after the catch. Dak, however, matched Purdy’s average efficiency but had over twice as many tight-coverage throws. If he can continue to thread the needle like this, Dallas has a shot at getting to the NFC championship game.
Interesting Matchup: Giants (Power Rank: 8) at Eagles (Power Rank: 1)
I’ve already waxed rhapsodic about the Giants' offense. From Week 14 through last weekend, Daniel Jones has been first in passing success rate. Saquon Barkley ranks fourth in EPA per attempt. Only the 49ers can boast similar efficiency marks from their QB and RB. But there is no wider discrepancy in the ELO ranks for a single matchup than what’s on tap for this NFC East rematch. However, I have some doubts about the 7.5-point spread in favor of the Eagles.
Jalen Hurts missed two games, returned in Week 18 to secure the first-round playoff bye, and was sore after the match. After an injury to his throwing shoulder and a multi-game absence, I can forgive any passing-game misfires against the Giants. Even if they were resting their starters, I’d expect some rust. Hurts has gotten more time to knock the rust off, but I’m concerned about how he’ll handle the Giants’ defensive front.
It wasn’t just that New York pressured Hurts on 28.6% of his dropbacks in Week 18. They also limited what happened after he sensed his protection breaking down. Hurts threw a brutal red-zone interception while escaping the Giants' pass rush and took two sacks. Wink Martindale threw all the right shots at the Eagles’ weakened offensive line to keep him in check. But the bye week likely gave Philadelphia the time needed to work on their protection issues.
Lane Johnson looks to be on track for a return, and the Vikings’ game plan may be the blueprint for keeping the offense on schedule. The Giants used bracket coverage on Justin Jefferson from the slot, forcing Kirk Cousins to rely on T.J. Hockenson. Coincidentally, before his injury, Dallas Goedert led the team in targets when Hurts was under duress. A.J. Brown may draw the most coverage from the Giants this weekend. But with other options like Goedert or DeVonta Smith, Hurts should be able to take care of business (and himself).
