We don’t need to think through playoff scenarios or what each team needs to get into the dance.
The final road to the Super Bowl starts this weekend. We’ve waited all season to see each conference’s best go head-to-head. And, for the most part, we got each conference’s best. But we can still debate which team has the better chance to fight for the Lombardi trophy in February.
Fantasy Life's Playoff Power Rankings
To help, our team has developed an ELO model to rank each playoff squad. We’ll update it after each set of games, and I’ll pull out the nuggets worth discussing to frame the next slate. And after taking a long look at the ranks, let’s start with the biggest takeaway from the result.
Biggest Takeaway: “Starting” QBs Matter
Our ELO model takes the whole season into its calculation. So, late-season changes may not drag the team’s average down. Such is the case for Baltimore and Miami.
Baltimore fans wait on bated breath to see if Lamar Jackson returns to practice in any capacity. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa’s availability for Sunday isn’t just about his physical health but the optics around putting him back out there. Regardless, both teams could use their starting quarterbacks out there this week. And it’s not too hard to see why.
Miami ranks 26th in dropback success rate after tough outings from Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson. The once high-flying offense fell to 31.1 yards per drive despite their seasonal average being 35.8. They snapped their five-game losing streak with an 11-6 win over the Jets, but there’s little confidence in the passing game. Baltimore’s in a similar position.
The Ravens have had the eighth-most explosive plays since Week 13. But 28 of them have been runs. Their tight ends have outperformed their receivers, and Tyler Huntley was the only backup to make it into the league's top half in EPA per play. So, even if Lamar returns, at best, he’ll lift their floor, but the personnel caps their ceiling.
Every team doesn’t have a Brock Purdy waiting on the sidelines to come in for their second injured passer. And most offensive schemes require the most out of their quarterback. Baltimore and Miami made huge strides throughout the season to even get into the playoffs. However, without their starters, a quick exit might be in store for both franchises.
Vikings at No. 6?!?
To be clear, calling the Vikings overrated doesn’t mean I think they’ll lose. It’s possible. The Giants took them to the brink the last time they faced each other, and Vegas only has them as a field-goal favorite despite being at home. But let’s look at Minnesota’s season in its entirety.
As mentioned at the top, a team’s weekly ELO score accounts for a victory and its quality. How much a team won by or who they faced forces an adjustment in the calculation. Of course, just winning is fine. It’s how these teams got into the playoffs! But Minnesota’s path looks a bit different than its competitors.
I took the number of times a team got an “adjusted win” (defeated a stronger opponent or won by two or more possessions) and divided it by their win total. As expected, the cream mostly rose to the top. Every team in the top eight power rankings had an adjusted win rate of over 60.0%. I’ll give Kansas City a pass because they’ve been playing with their food lately, and the Eagles just got Jalen Hurts back. But the Vikings can’t use either excuse.
Minnesota is one of three playoff teams with a negative point differential through the regular season. They’re 11-0 in one-possession games, setting an NFL record. However, their ELO rank relative to the Giants (12th) doesn’t capture how close Sunday’s matchup could be.
Without his starting center, Kirk Cousins averaged -0.32 EPA per play when pressured. For reference, Skylar Thompson had a -0.34 average. With the Giants able to rest their starters in Week 18, the Vikings’ ELO rank doesn’t align with their outlook for the Wildcard Round.
Are the 49ers Underrated?
Yes, I know. San Francisco is the second-ranked playoff squad and hasn’t dropped a game since October. So, calling them underrated feels like a mistake, except for the guy under center.
49ers fans have been wondering about Brock Purdy since he took over. Sure, the seventh-round rookie has played well. I think the correct term is “admirable.” But San Francisco has a shot at the Super Bowl, and their hopes rest on the shoulders of the latest draft’s Mr. Irrelevant. Wanting Jimmy Garoppolo (i.e., the devil you know) on the field in the big moments seems natural, but you couldn’t ask for a better third-string option at quarterback.
To be fair, Purdy’s faced some teams that were down bad. He watched the Commanders’ downturn as Carson Wentz replaced Taylor Heinicke in Week 16. Then he dueled with Jarrett Stidham the following Sunday, and San Francisco’s season finale was against David Blough. Our model accounts for the ELO of each team’s opponent. So while the 49ers had the easiest schedule of the playoff teams, their offensive domination should change the public’s perception of Purdy.
Since his Week 14 start, Purdy’s 0.24 EPA per play average is better than Patrick Mahomes’s (0.21). Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones are the only QBs with higher adjusted completion percentages. And with San Francisco averaging 6.7 yards per play (Buffalo at 6.1), the offense couldn’t be better positioned for the playoffs.
So, sure. The 49ers are second in our ELO ranks. But Purdy’s lack of “been there” will be a constant narrative through January. However, with San Francisco as a ten-point favorite this week and a potentially favorable matchup in the divisional round, an NFC championship spot looks more probable by the day.
Game Environment to Target:
Cowboys (Power Rank: 7) at Buccaneers (8)
Technically, this game is a rematch. Dallas and Tampa faced each other in the season opener. But it feels like a lifetime ago, and we’ve learned so much about each team since then. However, my interest isn’t in the replay nature of the match. We’ve got five other repeats this weekend. I’m intrigued by the perceived gap between the offenses.
Our ELO model has the Cowboys and Bucs ranked side by side at seventh and eighth in the power rankings. It’s the only game on the slate with two evenly-matched teams. Both have a season-difficulty rank in the top 12, and just 0.06 points separate them in average ELO. But that gap feels a bit wider after last week.
Over the month after Dak Prescott’s return, the Cowboys’ offense went from 19th in EPA per play to 4th. They lost a close battle against Green Bay, but the vibes were positive with Prescott back. However, concern started to mount around Thanksgiving.
Prescott has thrown an interception in seven consecutive games. He bottomed out on Sunday with the third-worst passer rating of his career. Part of the problem is his playstyle. His 19.8% tight-window-throw rate ranks first among all starting QBs per Next Gen Stats. However, a larger part of the issue is his personnel.
Having a combination of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb at his disposal mitigated Prescott’s aggressive tendencies in 2021. But now, we see the shortcomings in Dallas letting Cooper walk. According to PFF, Noah Brown has the third-most targets and dropped 30.8% of his passes over the last four games. Dalton Schultz is second in looks but first in interceptions thrown when Dak looks his way. The team’s inability to consistently stretch the field may be their fatal flaw at a time when Tampa Bay has rekindled its deep-ball game.
Tom Brady entered Week 17 with only one touchdown on throws greater than 20 air yards. He left with three more. Re-establishing this explosive connection with Mike Evans is problematic for the Cowboys, as they’ve allowed the most deep-ball completions over their last four games (18). Interior receivers have also given Dallas fits as injuries have eroded their once-vaunted coverage.
Ezekiel Elliot lacks any burst, and the team relies on T.Y. Hilton, who signed with the team last month, to create plays for them. The model might see these teams as equals. But I have more certainty in their disparity after their last few games.
