You have to be comfortable with being wrong.

I could extend this to a philosophical discussion about life and happiness, but I’m focusing on fantasy football. In short, nobody’s perfect. However, we can always improve by reviewing our mistakes to see where our logic went awry.

I made several calls during last year’s offseason. Some worked and some didn’t. And while scrolling through my hits would make me feel better, it’s not as helpful. I know why those plays worked. I wrote about them before the season! But with the misses, it’s not so simple.

I realize we’ve got the gift of hindsight now, but a few (that I drafted way too much of) stuck out that are worth revisiting. Let’s see what went wrong and if any similar situations exist in 2024.

Antonio Gibson, RB - WAS

From an overall structural standpoint, we should be drafting a team’s RB2 that could become a fringe RB1 in the middle rounds. Rushers with receiver skills are especially worthwhile. Antonio Gibson had a (slim) path to returning value on his ADP, given his skill set. Plus, he had the added boost of a better offense than what the Commanders trotted out in 2022. I made a case for him last June.

“Eric Bienemy’s tendencies when helping develop Patrick Mahomes should give us a sense of optimism about Gibson’s QB, Sam Howell. With a more efficient offense, the value of Gibson’s touches skyrockets, adding to his viability as a mid-round RB to target.”

So, the former WR from Memphis had three things going for him: a "stranglehold" on carries (both between the 20s and in the green zone), targets, and a better offense. Unfortunately, I missed the mark on all three. 

Washington’s offense didn’t demonstrably change from 2022 to 2023. Even with OC Eric Bienemy boosting their dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate from -11.0% to +5.0%, the overall results were the same.

Commanders' offense

Howell’s 65 sacks and 23 turnovers negated any positive effect generated by their uptick in passing. And, even worse for Gibson, he had more competition for targets.

Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel earned 22.0% and 15.1% of Howell’s targets. But we expected them to be involved. However, Cole Turner having an 18.1% TPRR rate wasn’t on my bingo card. I didn’t think Byron Pringle and Jamison Crowder would have route rates over 10.0%. From Logan Thomas getting 4.9 targets per game to Alex Armah getting three all year, none of their ancillary players were fantasy-relevant. But each took a look or two away from Gibson. Accordingly, his healthy 24.4% TPRR from 2022 dropped to 18.6%. And, finally, that brings us to his rushing attempts. 

It’s not that he should’ve taken over the Washington backfield. Brian Robinson’s forced missed tackle rate and adjusted yards after carry increased while maintaining his 2022 rushing success rate. He’s a good player. But Gibson’s value as a contingent option should Robinson miss time was part of the deal. And Robinson missed two weeks during the fantasy playoffs. However, Gibson couldn’t deliver.

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Rookie Chris Rodriguez got the majority of the carries and even snatched a target in Robinson’s absence. In hindsight, with the Commanders out of the playoff race, taking a longer look at the rookie makes sense. But it wasn’t in our calculus back over the summer.

Gibson’s profile makes his next landing spot interesting for fantasy. If he can find a team with a need for a third-down RB, sign me up. But until then, I’ll take a closer look at rushers with similar outlooks heading into 2024.

You can start drafting Gibson early on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with code LIFE!

Players with Similar Situations: Tyjae Spears, Jaylen Warren, Zach Charbonnet

Rashaad Penny, RB - PHI

Behold the tweet that set the market ablaze:

Afterward, Rashaad Penny shot up draft boards. And based on how Penny’s utilization overlapped Miles Sanders’s final year in Philadelphia, the former Seahawk looked like the right fit as the Eagles’ RB1.

Swift vs Penny

However, there were a few red flags.

  • Penny: 1 year, $1.35M ($600K GTD)
  • D’Andre Swift: 1 year, $1.7M (Eagles traded a 2023 7th-round pick 2025 4th)

Teams can’t lie with their wallets. Sure, the Lions had just drafted Jahmyr Gibbs, making Swift obsolete. GM Howie Roseman saw an opportunity and took it. But he also could have paid Penny more as a statement of their belief in his ability to make a comeback. Regardless, the oft-injured RB’s place in the pecking order (even if Swift’s status as a Day 2 pick factored into the trade) was already behind the other newcomer based on their contracts. But that’s just one data point. The preseason gave us another.

Outside of the Josh Jacobs incident in 2022, we don’t see much of the starters in August. And it’s not just the fact that Penny was toting the rock in meaningless games. Swift did, too. But their disparity in touches (and Swift’s alignment with the other vets) signaled how far Penny had fallen. And it was over by the time we got into the regular season.

Swift took over the lead-back role in Week 2 with Gainwell injured. In that same game, Penny didn’t earn a touch until the third quarter when the Eagles had a double-digit lead. He had a 3-9-0 statline.

RBs switching teams isn’t just about their fit and skillset. Sometimes, it’s as simple as if they can earn touches. So, before attaching ourselves to a player and what they’ve done, let’s also look at where they are and if they’ll get the same opportunity in the future.

Players with Similar Situations: Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, AJ Dillon

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - SEA

Draft capital matters.

As I said earlier, teams can’t lie with their wallets. And first-round picks are like golden tickets. They can make or break a franchise depending on how their prospect develops. So, drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the 20th overall spot signaled an immediate intent. It wasn’t just a way to plan for the future. But, looking at JSN’s rookie season, it seems like a player’s situation matters just as much (if not more).

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Smith-Njigba had two problems: his teammates playing the same position and his teammates around him. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf ended 2022 accounting for 49.0% of the team’s attempts. It’s not like they had a WR3 soaking up any additional looks, but the primary duo also had 65.0% of the end-zone passes thrown their way. So, JSN already had an uphill battle. Seattle’s injuries also played a role.

11 personell rate

Seattle lost their starting tackles during the early parts of the season. The loss forced them to put more TEs on the field to compensate in both run and pass blocking. With fewer plays using 11-personnel (three WRs), the OSU product averaged just 56.4% of the snaps through Week 6.

We’ve got another crop of WRs to study for this year. And not all of them will find homes with favorable fantasy situations. So, as the draft season hype begins, we’ll need to balance our excitement between what they can do and what their team situation will allow them to do in year one.

FF Misses