The AFC South has generally been a three-team race since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002. Overall, each of the Colts (9 division crowns), Texans (7) and Titans (4) have usually been consistent contenders, while the Jaguars (2) have at least been more competitive in recent years.

Kudos to the Texans for taking home the title in 2023, but they aren’t the only squad with a promising young QB looking to make even more noise in 2024.

What follows is a breakdown of every AFC South team’s top three needs with corresponding stats related to certain position units' 2023 performance, 2024 salary cap allocation and more.

Note that the needs aren’t listed in any particular order. Thanks to Over The Cap for the salary cap and contract information. Key free agents are unrestricted unless otherwise indicated and listed in no particular order. 2024 draft picks don’t include projected compensatory selections.

For more divisional breakdowns on team needs, see below!

Houston Texans

Running Back

Both Devin Singletary and Dare Ogunbowale are unrestricted free agents, leaving the Texans with only Dameon Pierce in their RB room ahead of 2024. They join the Raiders, Commanders, Rams and Eagles as the NFL’s only five teams with under $3 million 2024 dollars currently slotted to feed their backfield.

This wouldn’t have seemed like too big of a deal 12 months ago, but sadly Pierce took a major step back in his second professional season.

Pierce among 49 RBs with 100-plus carries in 2023

  • PFF rush grade: 64.7 (No. 46)
  • Yards per carry: 2.9 (No. 49)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.3 (No. 47)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.18 (tied for No. 25)

While Pierce did miss three games with an ankle issue, he failed to average even four yards per carry in any of his seven games before suffering the injury: The 24-year-old talent simply never resembled the same man who as a rookie *checks notes* posted the fifth-best rate of forcing missed tackles of any RB since 2013.

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Dec 24, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce (31) returns a kickoff for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Bringing back Singletary would help ease some of the concern here, although his 22 total carries in two playoff games reflected the reality that Houston didn’t seem entirely comfortable fully featuring their run game with him as their lead back. The offense as a whole was never good in short-yardage situations: Only the Chargers (56.4%) earned a 1st down or TD on a lower percentage of their carries on 3rd-or-4th and short (less than 3 yards) in 2023.

The Texans don’t need to break the bank on a shiny new RB, but giving this offense someone to help improve their status as the league’s 26th-ranked group in EPA per rush doesn’t seem like a bad idea.

Defensive line

Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson looks like someone who will be anchoring at least one side of the Texans’ defensive front for a long, long time.

But elsewhere? There’s work to be done. EDGE defenders Jonathan Greenard, Jerry Hughes and Derek Barnett join interior defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins, Khalil Davis (RFA), Teair Tart and Hassan Ridgeway as free agents, leaving the Texans with the league’s sixth-fewest 2024 dollars devoted to their defensive linemen overall.

The Texans boasted the league’s sixth-best defense in EPA allowed per rush – it was against the pass (20th) where they struggled. Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman has them filling this need in the form of electric Penn State EDGE rusher Chop Robinson in his first official 2024 NFL mock draft. I don’t like it – I love it.

Cornerback

Currently one of just 12 teams with under $15 million 2024 dollars aligned to their corners, Houston needs to add a little bit more talent around stud former No. 3 overall pick Derek Stingley Jr. to potentially turn this relative weakness into a major strength.

Overall, each of Steven Nelson, Tavierre Thomas and Desmond King are unrestricted free agents – AKA their three most-used (and highest graded) corners outside of Stingley. Simply re-signing all parties involved probably isn’t enough of a fix considering how poorly this defense performed against WRs last season:

Texans defense on targets to WRs

  • Yards per attempt: 9.3 (30th)
  • Explosive pass play rate: 22.8% (27th)
  • Total yards allowed: 2,725 (21st)

Stingley is the only corner this franchise has selected inside of the draft’s top-three rounds since Lonnie Johnson Jr. back in 2019. It’d make a lot of sense if the organization rectifies that by using one of their three top-100 picks on a corner come late April.

Honorable mention: The Texans currently have the 11th fewest dollars devoted to their WRs ahead of 2024, although they’re certainly set up well at the top in the form of Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Still, upgrading from Robert Woods and/or Noah Brown could add another dimension to this already lethal passing attack.

TE is also a major talking point with Dalton Schultz set to hit free agency, although the team could simply turn the starting job over to Brevin Jordan, who out-performed Schultz in terms of yards per reception (16.4 vs. 11) and yards per route run (1.89 vs. 1.51) with more limited usage.

Making extra sure that C.J. Stroud has the best pass protection available is never a bad idea; just realize Houston currently has the league’s second-most expensive offensive line entering 2024.

Both Denzel Perryman and Blake Cashman are unrestricted free agents, making linebackers a bit of a priority if the organization isn’t comfortable with Christian Harris and Henry To’oTo’o leading the way in 2024 and beyond.

Jacksonville Jaguars

EDGE

The 2022 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker remains cemented on one side of the line, but the team’s next three most-used (and best) EDGE defenders in Josh Allen, Dawuane Smooth and K’Lavon Chaisson are all unrestricted free agents. This results in the Jaguars having the league’s sixth-fewest 2024 dollars currently devoted to the position.

Locking down Allen after his 17.5-sack season will be pricey – he’s a candidate for the franchise tag if the team can’t figure out a long-term extension. He’s certainly the sort of pass-rushing talent that absolutely needs to be kept in Duval County for the foreseeable future.

Josh Allen among 146 qualified EDGE defenders since 2019

  • PFF pass-rush grade: 87.1 (No. 17)
  • Pressure rate: 14.2% (No. 19)
  • Pressures: 277 (No. 9)
  • Sacks: 46 (No. 13)

There are already some rumors about the Jaguars bringing in Vikings EDGE rusher Danielle Hunter. That would be a nice addition to help jumpstart a pass rush that had far too much talent to be finishing just 16th in pressure rate (35.1%) in 2023.

Offensive Line

PFF’s reigning 27th-ranked unit dealt with injuries, suspensions and trades last season on their way to struggling mightily as a group in both the pass and run games.

  • The Jaguars averaged a league-low 0.7 rushing yards before contact per carry last year. The 2021 Texans are the only other offense to register that bad of a mark over the past four regular seasons.
  • While Jacksonville actually ranked second behind only the Dolphins in pressure rate allowed (29.5%), they featured the league’s fourth-quickest average time to throw (2.79 seconds) and tied for giving up the 10th-quickest average time to pressure (2.45).

You don’t need to take my word for it on this one: Jaguars GM Trent Baalke pinned Trevor Lawrence’s 2023 regression on the team’s failure to keep him upright.

“Unfortunately, he had four key injuries this year. When your quarterback has a throwing-shoulder injury, a knee injury, an ankle injury, and a concussion all in one year, that’s alarming. So we’ve got to work to improve that.”

It’d make sense if recent top-70 draft picks like Anton Harrison, Luke Fortner and Walker Little improve with more experience and better health; just realize this group has a LONG way to go in order to be considered anything resembling an overall plus for this franchise.

Wide Receiver

Let’s just say T-Law didn’t get a lot of help from his friends last season.

Yes, Lawrence also had his fair share of misses (this one in Week 18 especially hurt), but nobody truly looked the part of a No. 1 WR all season long. None of Christian Kirk (58th), Calvin Ridley (66th) nor Zay Jones (87th) managed to crack ESPN’s top-50 overall WRs of 2023.

Kudos to the Jaguars for forking up some serious money and draft capital to acquire these WRs in the first place, although it wouldn’t hurt to see them invest a bit earlier in the position when it comes time to draft. Overall, the Jaguars are one of just eight teams to use one or less day-one or day-two picks on a WR over the past five drafts.

If you think the Jags WR room gets an upgrade, you can start drafting their pieces TODAY on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!

Honorable mention: It wouldn’t hurt to add some extra juice into this cornerback room, and Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman accordingly has the Jaguars taking Clemson CB Nate Wiggins in his first official 2024 NFL mock draft.

Indianapolis Colts

Wide Receiver

Simply re-signing or franchise-tagging Michael Pittman would be a good start here.

The 26-year-old talent broke out to the tune of a career-high 109 receptions and 1,152 receiving yards in 2023, catching at least eight passes in an astonishing 10 separate contests – tied for the fourth-highest single-season mark in NFL history!

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Nov 12, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) warms up before a game against the New England Patriots during an International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

However, simply bringing back Pittman probably isn’t enough. Alec Pierce (ESPN’s 95th-ranked WR from 2023) has done a little too much time busting than booming during his short career, while Josh Downs (41st) seems to have a little higher of a ceiling as a shifty routesman out of the slot.

Either way: Pierce and Downs are still just 23 and 22 years old, respectively. Only the Cardinals, Packers and Falcons currently have fewer 2024 dollars going to their WRs than the Colts – why not maximize Anthony Richardson’s rookie deal and use a bit of that extra cap room to add a REAL difference-maker at the position?

Defensive Line

The Colts struggled to control the line of scrimmage all season long on the defensive side of the football:

  • Pressure rate: 32.3% (No. 26)
  • Quick pressure rate (under 2.5 seconds): 23.5% (No. 29)
  • Rush yards before contact per carry: 1.3 (No. 17)
  • 1st down/TD rate on 3rd/4th down and less than 3 yards: 59.6% (No. 30)

One of just 10 teams spending less than $40 million on their defensive line, adding talent around DeForest Buckner (30 in March) is essential to improving the league’s reigning 28th-ranked scoring defense.

Secondary

Of course, blaming all of the Colts’ defensive problems on the defensive line isn’t fair: This secondary didn’t exactly help matters last season.

Overall, the Colts posted bottom-seven marks in contested target rate (15.6%, 30th) and explosive pass play rate (22.3%, 26th) allowed on targets to opposing WRs, repeatedly allowing some big-time names to put together big-time performances:

Replacing or re-signing free agent nickelback Kenny Moore and S Julian Blackmon would be a good start, I’m also a fan of Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman’s suggestion that the Colts take Alabama CB Terrion Arnold with their first-round pick.

Honorable mention: PFF’s reigning third-ranked offensive line got back to their badass ways in 2023 and *should* continue to be a strength in 2024 and beyond. … Finding a complementary option behind Jonathan Taylor should be a priority if Zack Moss heads for greener pastures. A pass-down specialist similar to ex-Colts RB Nyheim Hines makes a lot of sense.

Obviously, there’s no QB controversy in Indianapolis, but that doesn’t mean the Colts shouldn’t really try to find a quality veteran backup to replace Pro Bowl (lol) QB Gardner Minshew considering Richardson sure didn’t seem to have a good grasp on how to avoid big hits as a rookie.

Tennessee Titans

Offensive Line

PFF’s reigning 32nd-ranked offensive line wasn’t expected to be good in 2023 – and they weren’t!

Part of the problem is simply resource allocation. This is one of the league’s bottom-five cheapest groups in terms of 2024 dollars devoted to the position:

  • Bears ($26.4 million set to be spent on the offensive line)
  • Titans ($26.2 million)
  • Patriots ($24.6 million)
  • Raiders ($21.7 million)
  • Seahawks ($11.3 million)

It’s tough to be too critical of the group for some of Ryan Tannehill’s issues considering he was the league’s third-worst QB at allowing pressures to be converted into sacks, although there were certainly too many of those situations happening in the first place considering we’re talking about an offensive line that ranked 30th in both overall pressure rate (42%) allowed.

The dropoff in Derrick Henry’s yards per carry over the years is often attributed to his age. What if I told you it actually has far more to do with his set of big uglies up front?

Titans rank in rush yards before contact per carry:

  • 2023: 0.9 (30th)
  • 2022: 1.0 (30th)
  • 2021: 1.3 (18th)
  • 2020: 1.5 (13th)

Henry’s yards after contact per carry have stayed between 3.3 and 3.9 yards in each of the past four seasons – good for top-10 marks at the position in each and every year along the way. His max speed per season tells a similar story: Don’t be so quick to dub Henry washed just because of his raw yards per carry numbers.

Tl;dr: The Titans offensive line is no longer anything close to a strength in the pass and run game, ultimately making them arguably the single-biggest problem facing this organization at the moment.

Never fear, Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman is here and has them filling this need in the form of Notre Dame OT Joe Alt in his first official 2024 NFL mock draft. Yes! 

Secondary

This defense has routinely been sound against the run recently (probably from practicing against King Henry every day), but life has been much tougher when defending opposing passing attacks.

  • 2023: +0.132 EPA allowed per dropback (30th), -0.116 EPA allowed per rush (12th)
  • 2022: +0.114 (28th), -0.199 (1st)

The Titans’ decision to trade longtime stud S Kevin Byard to the Eagles during the middle of last season reflects the reality that they are ready to rebuild the whole damn ship. Maybe unrestricted free agents CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB Kristian Fulton, S K’Von Wallace and/or S Terrell Edmunds return; more work needs to be done in order to boost the group’s overall talent level either way.

The team has spent a top-two draft pick on the secondary in three of their last four drafts; going back to the well with one of their top-40 picks could help finally push this pass defense into a more respectable territory – particularly if the team fails to re-sign their numerous free agents at corner and safety.

Pass-catcher

DeAndre Hopkins wasn’t bad on his way to catching 75 balls for 1,057 yards and seven scores while dealing with less-than-stellar QB play on the 2023 Titans. That said: The artist known as Nuk will be 32 in June and could be a cap casualty considering Tennessee could save $16.35 million against the cap with just $1.96 million in dead money by designating him a post-June 1 release.

If Hopkins exits the equation: Sheesh. That would leave Treylon Burks and Kyle “One L” Philips as the next two WRs up, while TE Chigoziem Okonkwo would also be expected to continue shouldering a heavy load as a receiver.

Both Burks and Chiggy have flashed during their two seasons in the league, but the former struggled to stay healthy and get anything going in 2023 (16-221-0 in 11 games), and the latter could be seen as more of a tweener (6’2”, 243-pounds) as opposed to a full-time inline option by a new coaching staff.

Ultimately, this Titans passing “attack” ranked 29th in yards (3,067) and TDs (14) alike: More talent in both the WR and TE rooms will help provide a far better offensive environment to properly evaluate Will Levis and/or whoever else winds up under center in 2024 and beyond.

Honorable mention: The Titans and Henry are seemingly parting ways after their eight-year marriage. Bringing in a new lead back is always possible, but Tyjae Spears did flash with his opportunities while joining Henry and Tyler Allgeier as the league’s only three RBs who posted PFF grades north of 70 as a rusher, receiver and pass blocker last season.

It looks like the Titans are moving forward with Levis? The rookie certainly looked like the next big thing after his four-TD debut, but then Levis proceeded to throw just four more TDs in his next 226 pass attempts. Levis did have some moments (particularly on the poker table) inside of an offensive environment that’s hardly being lauded as elite; just realize it’d make sense if a new regime isn’t 100% convinced that the 33rd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft is this team’s QB of the present and future.

More help in the pass-rush department would also help this lackluster pass defense. The Titans ranked just 27th in pressure rate (31.9%) last season; they join the Vikings and Rams as the only organizations that have spent just *one* day-one or day-two draft pick on their defensive line throughout the last five drafts.

Team Needs 2024-25