Death, taxes, and Mike Tomlin-led football teams not finishing below .500. Another nine or more wins will make it 18 straight such campaigns for Pittsburgh even if the playoff wins have been lacking in recent years.

Consider the fact that the Steelers have registered a negative regular season point differential in four of their last five after having finished in the green during each of Tomlin's first 12 seasons in Pittsburgh. Obviously losing legends like Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown had something to do with this, but at the end of the day, this team hasn't won a playoff game since the 2016 season.

Of course, the front office has done quite a bit to retool this roster to (hopefully) give them a better chance to make some serious noise this coming January. Here's a quick overview of all the Steelers' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

The hope is that the Steelers' struggles on the offensive line from last year should be at least somewhat mitigated by their decision to utilize their top two draft picks (20th and 51st overall) on offensive linemen. Consistently cleaner pockets would certainly go a long way towards fixing their ever-present problem under center in the post-Big Ben era.

Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

While nobody should expect the Steelers to get a prime version of Mr. Unlimited, Wilson can still create some off-script magic and deserves credit for having posted the NFL’s third-best mark in completion percentage over expected (+4.9%) last season.

Still, it’s tough to be overly enthralled with Wilson’s accuracy considering that he hasn’t exactly made a habit of attacking all three levels of the field in recent years. Per Warren Sharp:

  • Wilson threw 27% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage in 2023, the highest mark among 509 QBs since 2005.
  • He also threw just 26% of his passes between five and 15 yards downfield, which was the lowest mark over that span.

Give the veteran signal-caller a lot of credit for having tossed 26 TDs in just 15 games last season; he was a helluva lot better with Sean Payton than Nathaniel Hackett. That said, Wilson's 2023 performance was still quite a step down from what we saw from him in Seattle. Here's how Wilson's expected points added (EPA) per dropback has declined over the last decade:

  • 2014: +0.182 (No. 6 among all QBs with 300-plus dropbacks)
  • 2015: +0.267 (No. 3)
  • 2016: +0.093 (No. 15)
  • 2017: +0.081 (No. 13)
  • 2018: +0.202 (No. 6)
  • 2019: +0.150 (No. 11)
  • 2020: +0.165 (No. 14)
  • 2021: +0.075 (No. 19)
  • 2022: -0.004 (No. 25)
  • 2023: +0.045 (No. 18)

Yes, Wilson will almost certainly be an improvement over Pickett, but it's still tough to get overly excited about him in fantasy land. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has regularly led offenses that prefer to run the ball as much as possible. Here's how Smith’s pass play rate has looked over the past five years:

  • 2019 (Titans): 56.8% (No. 29)
  • 2020 (Titans): 51.7% (No. 30)
  • 2021 (Falcons): 62.6% (No. 12)
  • 2022 (Falcons): 48.5% (No. 32)
  • 2023 (Falcons): 55.3% (No. 30)
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Dec 3, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) runs with the ball during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe Smith will decide to embrace Wilson like he did Matt Ryan in 2021, but that seems unlikely considering the continuity factors at hand. Pittsburgh has also ranked just 27th in pass play rate (56.6%) in the two seasons since Roethlisberger retired.

And don't take this as blind Arthur Smith hate. It’s been easy to say a lot of mean things about Smith in fantasy land for the better part of the last 36 months; just realize that the Steelers’ new offensive coordinator does deserve some credit for at least having gotten the best out of Ryan Tannehill during their time together in Tennessee in 2019 and 2020.

Even so, Pittsburgh hardly profiles as one of the league's more fantasy-friendly passing attacks heading into 2024. And then we get to the Justin Fields factor. Fun fact: The artist known as DangeRuss hasn't exactly been much better than Fields when it comes to passing efficiency over the past two years:

Here's how the two Steelers QBs ranked among 46 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks from 2022 and 2023:

  • EPA per dropback: Fields (+0.012, 31st), Wilson (+0.020, 29th)
  • Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): Fields (-0.8, 31st), Wilson (+1.7%, 14th)
  • PFF pass grade: Fields (61.1, 38th), Wilson (69.8, 24th)
  • Passer rating: Fields (85.8, 29th), Wilson (91.0, 20th)
  • Yards per attempt (YPA): Fields (7, 25th), Wilson (7.1, 19th)

Obviously, things aren't close on the ground. Only Lamar Jackson (61.1) has averaged more rushing yards per game than Fields (55.5) among all QBs in NFL history to start at least 16 games. The rising fourth-year QB is absolutely electric with the football in his hands, something that almost seems to be taken for granted at this point (and is always seemingly left off the social media QB comparison charts).

In terms of potential fantasy upside, it’d certainly be a lot cooler if Fields were to find his way into the starting job. His aforementioned rushing prowess would make him far more appealing in fantasy than Wilson. Overall, Fields (18.8 fantasy points per game, QB6) has easily out-produced Wilson (16.1, QB16) over the past two seasons. High-volume rushing QBs join elite pass-catching RBs as the closest thing our great American pastime has to cheat codes in fantasy land.

Sadly, the constant drumbeat throughout the offseason indicates that this isn't exactly a wide-open competition at the moment. It's far from a guarantee that Fields will even get a late-season chance if the Steelers can remain competitive under Wilson. And as a reminder to the top of this article: Pittsburgh has been just that in every season that Tomlin has been head coach.

Ultimately, maybe the answer to this Steelers QB competition winds up being a simple “no”. After all, Wilson and Fields are the only two QBs in the NFL who've had a combined 100 or more INTs and sacks over the last two seasons per StatMuse.

Bottom line: While Fields has a higher fantasy ceiling due to the aforementioned rushing discrepancy, it might be wishful thinking to assume that he'll get a real chance at the starting job barring the team completely falling apart from a win/loss standpoint.

Please don't revolve your fantasy process around ensuring you leave drafts with Wilson either, but his virtually free QB32 ADP (pick No. 212 overall) makes him a fine enough last-round stacking partner for rosters that already have George Pickens. It's worth noting that Wilson did managed to average a mere 0.38 fantasy points per game less than that Patrick Mahomes dude last season.

Running Back

Harris arguably put forward the best season of his career in terms of rushing efficiency in 2023, and yet, he still paled in comparison to Warren in virtually every metric:

  • PFF rush grade: Warren (84.4), Harris (77.2)
  • Yards per carry: Warren (5.2), Harris (4)
  • Yards after contact per carry: Warren (3.7), Harris (3)
  • Missed tackled forced per carry: Warren (0.36), Harris (0.2)
  • Explosive run rate: Warren (16.6%), Harris (9.4%)
  • Stuff rate: Warren (17%), Harris (19%)

To be fair, Warren ranked near the top of the 2023 leaderboard period in most of these stats. On top of that, Harris did have to deal with eight-plus defenders in the box on a far higher percentage of his carries (37.5% compared to just 23.6% for Warren).

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Dec 31, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon (21) tackles Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) during the second half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

That said, Warren's emergence as a bonafide stud was undoubtedly part of the reason the Steelers felt comfortable declining Harris' fifth-year option earlier this offseason.

Clearly, Warren is going to be a big part of this offense, but that hasn't stopped Pittsburgh from utilizing Harris heavily in each of the past two seasons. Fantasy managers are also all too familiar with Arthur Smith's RB usage practices. While we've seen past examples of featured workhorses in both systems, our most recent samples of Atlanta and Pittsburgh's 2023 offenses weren't very encouraging:

The good news is that both the Falcons and Steelers finished as top-six fantasy-friendly backfields in terms of expected PPR points per game. There should be plenty of overall usage to go around here for both Harris and Warren, although that could change if Fields were to usurp Wilson at some point in the season. Mobile QBs have typically had a negative fantasy impact on their team's RBs.

Harris currently still projects as the “starter” and leading rusher for 2024, but Warren profiles as the preferred pass-game option. This split usage led to fairly consistent fantasy RB3 production from both Warren (RB29) and Harris (RB30) last season. The upside scenario is that either RB would immediately be in the fantasy RB1 conversation should the other miss time with an injury.

Bottom line: Both RBs look like rather awesome zero/hero-RB targets at their respective RB25 (Warren) and RB23 (Harris) ADPs. One of my early bold-ish predictions for 2024 is that both will finish as top-24 fantasy RBs. It's not that far-fetched, as two teammates both finishing as fantasy RB2s is something that's happened 1.9 times per season over the past decade.

Wide Receiver

Pickens certainly took advantage of his time without Diontae Johnson on the field in 2023. Here are his stat lines in four games without Johnson:

  • 4-127-1 (PPR WR11)
  • 4-75-0 (PPR WR37)
  • 3-25-0 (PPR WR65)
  • 6-130-1 (PPR WR5)

And while neither Wilson nor Fields is exactly elite, either QB would still be a major upgrade over what Pickens and company have been dealing with the last few seasons. While it's still not exactly fishing with dynamite, both Courtland Sutton (59-772-10) and (especially) D.J. Moore (96-1,364-8) proved capable of being fantasy studs with Wilson and Fields, respectively, in 2023.

It’s not a given that Pickens will be able to reach the same heights as Sutton or Moore, though, especially when taking into account Arthur Smith's aforementioned history of establishing the run at a very high rate.

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Sep 10, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) makes a catch against San Francisco 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward (7) but can not stay in bounds during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. San Francisco won 30-7. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Even so, the potential upside here is tantalizing. Pickens just turned 23 years old in March and has largely made the most out of his opportunities during his first two seasons in the NFL. Among 63 WRs who saw 150-plus targets in 2022 and in 2023, here are the top performers in yards per target:

  1. Brandon Aiyuk (10.8)
  2. Jaylen Waddle (10.7)
  3. Tyreek Hill (10.3)
  4. George Pickens (10.2)

The tape backs up the idea that Pickens might be ready to truly explode in Year 3, a thought that's been fairly commonplace in fantasy land over the years. It'd be a lot cooler if he were in an offense where 150-plus targets were on the table, but don't discount his potential to make a lot of big plays even on just 100 or so targets. Fantasy Life Projections currently have Pickens slotted for 114 pass-game opportunities, the same amount as Jaylen Waddle or Amari Cooper.

Things get a bit tougher to project for the WRs behind Pickens. Veteran field stretchers Jefferson, Watkins, and Miller received vet-minimum deals and hardly profile as locked-in starters. That leaves third-round rookie Roman Wilson as the projected No. 2 target earner in this WR room.

Fantasy Life's Jonathan Fuller wrote a great breakdown on Wilson before the draft and concluded the following:

"Overall I think Roman Wilson is a bit underrated due to his lack of college production, but I expect NFL teams to like what they see and for Wilson to hear his name called relatively early on day two of the NFL Draft. The landing spot is always important, but I do think there are a lot of offenses where Wilson could succeed thanks to his ability to win at multiple route depths as well as over the middle of the field.

He doesn’t have the highest ceiling in this loaded WR class, but it is easy for me to envision Roman Wilson being a rock-solid contributor to fantasy football rosters.

The biggest concern with players of his archetype is usually TD production, but if his strong TD rate translates from college to the NFL, he could be something of a mold-breaker."

It's not a guarantee that Wilson will take over most of Diontae Johnson's underneath and intermediate targets from last year, but the Michigan product certainly seems to have that tool in his belt.

However, the rookie will really need to hit the ground running in order to make up for potentially limited volume, especially if Wilson struggles to start in two-WR from the get-go on a Pittsburgh offense that projects to use quite a bit of two-TE personnel. After all, Atlanta ran a league-high 670 plays with at least two TEs on the field last season, which was an astounding 199 more plays than the next-closest offense (Patriots).

Bottom line: Pickens is my fourth-most drafted WR through 30 offseason best ball drafts. Roman Wilson isn't exactly off my board at his WR71 ADP (pick No. 155 overall), but I struggle to see a true path to a ceiling outcome for him considering the low projected target volume in Pittsburgh.

Tight End

Freiermuth is the new frontrunner to be in Arthur Smith's "Kyle Pitts" role. Reading that sentence likely sent a shiver down your spine, but it's worth noting that Pitts saw the 10th most targets per game (5.9) among TEs from 2021 to 2023. Additionally, only Mark Andrews had more total air yards than Pitts during that span.

I'm inclined to believe that Pitts's lack of production to start his career has been more so due to poor QB play and injuries rather than just because of Arthur Smith. Apologies to your fantasy teams, but Jonnu Smith was objectively more efficient with his opportunities in 2023. Was Jonnu often given more YAC-friendly targets? Yes, but maybe that was actually a decent idea considering that, you know, Pitts has forced exactly one more missed tackle than Zach f*cking Ertz over the past two seasons?

Okay, sorry. I might've gotten a bit carried away there. This is the Steelers' preview. Anyway, Freiermuth doesn't turn 26 years old until October and deserves credit for having been the fantasy TE10 in PPR points per game the first two seasons of his career. Obviously, last season's 32-308-2 performance wasn't exactly a step in the right direction, but a Week 1 chest injury and a hamstring injury in Week 4 were mitigating factors that didn't exactly set him up for success.

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Dec 3, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth (88) runs after a catch against the Arizona Cardinals during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Look, Freiermuth doesn't deserve to be drafted as a top-10 TE this year, but there are a few factors working in his favor:

  • The Steelers' QB situation is in a better place heading into 2024.
  • There are 143 vacated targets (10th most) in this Pittsburgh offense from last year with Diontae Johnson and Allen Robinson gone.
  • 2023 third-round pick Darnell Washington earned a whopping 10 targets last season and was used as a blocker on 72% of his snaps. It'd also be very surprising to see any meaningful route participation from Connor Heyward, MyCole Pruitt, or Rodney Williams. Freiermuth should have plenty of snaps and opportunities in 2024.

Bottom line: Freiermuth's lowly TE14 ADP (pick No. 141 overall) seems to be somewhat unfairly influenced by the idea that Arthur Smith hates TEs even though Falcons TEs had the fourth-most targets in the NFL during his time there.

Fantasy Life Projections have Freiermuth tied with Dalton Schultz for the 12th-highest target total (76) among TEs in 2024. Fantasy managers could do worse than a young TE with a realistic chance to push for a top-10 target volume, and it doesn't hurt that Freiermuth is typically available after the top 18 QBs, top 40 RBs, and top 65 WRs are already off the board.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 Season Prediction

The Steelers' defense has posted No. 7, No. 16, No. 5, No. 3, No. 20, No. 10, and most recently, a No. 6 finish in scoring since they drafted T.J. Watt in 2017. Fellow pass-rusher Cam Heyward is also still around to fortify the interior of the defensive line, and ex-Ravens LB Patrick Queen is a big offseason addition who should improve the second level of this defense. Add in a stout secondary held down by Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joey Porter Jr., and it's tough to see Pittsburgh rolling over in 2024 even if the offense were to remain a dumpster fire.

That's the problem with confidently betting on Tomlin's .500-or-better stream coming to an end. I'll lean toward the over on 7.5 wins (BetMGM) even though I don't love the -175 odds. This feels like a stay-away situation overall. Expect a dogfight week after week from this ball-control, run-heavy, defensive-minded Steelers team. Pittsburgh should be able to eke out some ugly wins even if they'll most likely be overcome (yet again) by more talented overall rosters when it matters most.

You can tail the over on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

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