Fantasy Life Roundtable. Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football This Season.
- Aaron Jones, RB - Green Bay Packers
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR - San Francisco 49ers
- Calvin Ridley, WR - Jacksonville Jaguars
- D.J. Moore, WR - Chicago Bears
- Drake London, WR - Atlanta Falcons
- Javonte Williams, RB - Denver Broncos
- Jordan Addison, WR - Minnesota Vikings
- Miles Sanders, RB - Carolina Panthers
- Najee Harris, RB - Pittsburgh Steelers
- Nick Chubb, RB - Cleveland Browns
- Romeo Doubs, WR - Green Bay Packers
Sometimes it's more important to avoid landmines in drafts than to hit on every single pick.
After all, bad draft picks can quickly tank your season right out of the gate in Week 1.
The Fantasy Life staff is here to help, though, with a list of players to avoid in your 2023 drafts.
Aaron Jones, RB - Green Bay Packers
In 2022, Aaron Jones was one of the NFL’s most efficient rushing RBs last season with top-10 marks in rushing grade (90.7, No. 2 among 33 qualifying RBs) and elusive rating (71.4, No. 8 among RBs) per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
His 3.2 yards after contact per carry also ranked 10th among RBs, and his 5.2 yards per carry led at the position.
Of course, Jones needed to make the most out of his opportunities in order to make up for a less-than-ideal workload.
Last year, he finished as just the RB17 in expected PPR points per game (PPG). Although Jones eclipsed teammate AJ Dillon in both rush attempts (213 vs. 186) and targets (72 vs. 43), the split workload kept Jones's fantasy production inconsistent from week to week despite him being a top-10 talent at the RB position.
August 11, 2023; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) catches a pass out of the backfield In the first quarter during Week 1 NFL preseason game between the Green Bay Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY NETWORK
Further complicating matters in 2023 is a potential offensive downgrade overall with Jordan Love taking over for Aaron Rodgers. On top of that, Jones will join Derrick Henry as one of just two early-round RBs who will be over 29 years old by the end of the season, which has historically been the age cliff to worry about at the RB position.
This combination of less-than-ideal volume on a questionable offense for an aging RB simply isn’t something I want to make a habit of attacking at the Round 4-5 turn.
At this point, I’d rather take RBs like Rhamondre Stevenson and Breece Hall ahead of Jones due to their youth and potential for better overall offensive environments. Jones is also going in the same ADP range as top-30 WRs like Diontae Johnson and Brandon Aiyuk, both of whom I also prefer at cost.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR - San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk is an uber-talented player. Unfortunately, the 49ers are a run-oriented offense with a lot of mouths to feed in a passing attack led by a young QB with only six career starts.
Additionally, San Francisco has shown a clear preference for Deebo Samuel against zone coverage over the last three seasons, and NFL defenses play zone on about 70% of plays.
Aiyuk has the talent profile to make me regret my measly 3% exposure, but he'll need a lot of dominoes to fall in line to fully unlock his potential.
Calvin Ridley, WR - Jacksonville Jaguars
Calvin Ridley (2.3%) is now a late second-round pick thanks to a couple of clips of him crushing drills in shorts at training camp.
Drafters are essentially putting their fingers in their ears and screaming “la la la la I can’t hear you” while pretending that he’s not a 28-year-old WR who has played five games over the past two years.
Ridley will also be competing with Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones for targets in a versatile offense.
Ridley is a phenomenal story and an objectively fun player to select and root for, but the market is not properly baking in the downside risk at his Round 2 ADP.
D.J. Moore, WR - Chicago Bears
I’ve had a tough time clicking on D.J. Moore in the fourth round all summer.
His talent level relative to his target competition is unquestioned, but the math (or at least my math) questions his situation. Moore had a 23.1% target share from 2019 to 2022 and averaged 133.5 targets per season over that span.
Meanwhile, Carolina’s QBs threw the ball 578.5 times per game over the same span. In 2022, Justin Fields's pass attempts per game would’ve totaled about 360 on the season based on his per-game average.
We'll need an outlier from either Fields’s pass rate or Moore’s target share this coming season for Moore to pay off his current ADP, and that’s not a bet that I want to make in the early rounds.
Aug 12, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) scores on a 62-yard touchdown catch and run in the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Drake London, WR - Atlanta Falcons
Last season, Drake London experienced a mini breakout down the stretch, ripping off 6-95-0, 7-70-0, 7-96-0, 5-47-0, and 6-120-0 receiving lines over the final five weeks of the season.
Some of the route-running and YAC moves that London put on tape were downright scary considering that he's a 6'4, 214 lb. WR.
London also just turned 22 years old in July, so the No. 8 overall draft pick from 2022 could see a true breakout in 2023 if his late-season accession last year was any indication.
The gargantuan-sized problem in the room is that Kyle Pitts was sidelined for the final six games last season, which undoubtedly helped London obtain a more consistent target share in Atlanta's offense, which was the most run-heavy in the league in 2022.
From Weeks 1 to 11 last year when Pitts was active, London saw eight or more targets in just one game compared to five games with eight-plus targets with Pitts inactive. When Pitts was on the field last season, their workloads were nearly identical.
It's also somewhat concerning that Desmond Ridder was actually worse than Marcus Mariota in his four starts as a rookie late last year. Among 49 qualifying QBs, Ridder ranked 45th in adjusted completion percentage (68.5%), 48th in clean pocket completion rate (66.5%), and 48th in deep ball completion rate (20%).
And finally, the Falcons' offense in 2022 was the second-most run-heavy offense since 2016, and they just drafted Bijan Robinson eighth overall, which doesn't exactly signal a switch to a more pass-heavy scheme.
Maybe London will be talented enough to overcome all these volume concerns, but I struggle to pay the premium on him when a WR like Michael Pittman, who shares similar questions about target volume, is usually available over two rounds later.
Javonte Williams, RB - Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams made sense as an early offseason gamble when his recovery timetable was unknown, but his recent ADP rise into Round 6 makes him a clear player to avoid.
There are upside concerns with the Broncos' overall offense after losing Tim Patrick for the season and Jerry Jeudy for at least a few weeks, and there are rumblings about Denver limiting Williams’s workload early on.
Those drafting Williams also like to point out the talent gap between him and Samaje Perine, but Perine has shown receiving ability that a coach like Sean Payton values.
If Williams were coming in fully healthy to an established top-10 offense, it might be a different story, but there are plenty of other RBs with fewer concerns and similar upside I much prefer at Williams's current ADP.
Jordan Addison, WR - Minnesota Vikings
Everyone loves Jordan Addison’s skill set and potential, but his 73.5 ADP overall on Underdog assumes that Addison will be the clear-cut No. 2 option in the Vikings' passing offense.
T.J. Hockenson averaged 8.81 targets per game in his 11 starts with Minnesota last season, and K.J. Osborn had a solid 13.4% team target share in 2022 and figures to be their primary slot WR again in 2023. Kirk Cousins is also approaching the same age cliff that Matt Ryan succumbed to not too long ago.
In a range where you can take solid RB options like Cam Akers or even grab a No. 1 WR for his team like Michael Pittman, Addison’s current ADP is simply too rich for me.
Aug 10, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) during warmups prior to the game at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Miles Sanders, RB - Carolina Panthers
Last year was a breakout season for Miles Sanders, but he now finds himself in a much less fantasy-friendly situation in Carolina. And although Sanders is expected to be healthy for Week 1, he's been battling a groin injury throughout the preseason.
With an ADP in the late sixth round, his cost in drafts isn’t unreasonable, but I have Sanders in a tier below other RBs like J.K. Dobbins and James Cook, both of whom have a chance to see more work in better overall offenses.
Sanders should be able to provide a decent weekly floor when healthy, but I struggle to see much of a ceiling and prefer to take higher-upside RBs in the same ADP range.
Najee Harris, RB - Pittsburgh Steelers
I've been avoiding Najee Harris in drafts all summer long. His ADP has been falling in recent weeks, but I still find him to be a difficult selection in the middle of the fourth round.
I’m pretty confident that Harris isn’t the most explosive player in his own backfield, so I think that there’s a good chance that we'll see more of an even split between Harris and Jaylen Warren in 2023 than some expect.
The other factor is that I’m not usually targeting RBs in the fourth round because I prefer the RBs going in the second and third rounds instead. Even on the rare occasions where I do draft a RB in the fourth, I’m usually targeting the likes of Travis Etienne and Breece Hall over Harris.
Aug 11, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) runs as Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Anthony Nelson (98) defends during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
I'm with Jonathan on this one. I've only drafted Harris on 1% of my teams in over 200 drafts. While I don’t think that he'll wreck your fantasy team in Round 4, I also don't see a scenario where Harris can be a league-winner in 2023.
While the coaching staff has remained committed to their former Round 1 pick so far, Harris has been an inefficient player over his first two seasons in the league. Jaylen Warren is the more explosive Pittsburgh RB and could eventually force the powers that be to re-evaluate the workload split at some point this season.
Nick Chubb, RB - Cleveland Browns
My biggest fade in Round 1 this year is Nick Chubb (1.5%). Chubb started the offseason as a Round 2-3 turn pick, which is a much more palatable price for a RB who's never shown a pass-catching floor on a Browns offense that imploded down the stretch in 2022 with Deshaun Watson at the helm.
In pricing Chubb ahead of RBs like Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard, the market is making two massive assumptions.
Jan 1, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) carries the ball as Washington Commanders safety Jeremy Reaves (39) defends during the first half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
The first is that there's zero systemic risk with Cleveland's offense being bad again with Watson, and the other is that Chubb will catch a lot more passes with Kareem Hunt gone.
Could both those things break right in Chubb's favor in 2023? Sure, but the parlay element there makes him a risky pick at ADP when the WRs in that range offer better floor/ceiling combos.
Romeo Doubs, WR - Green Bay Packers
Romeo Doubs has also been on my fade list throughout the summer. Qualitatively, I envision the Packers’ offense taking as much off Jordan Love’s plate as possible in his first year as a starter.
Additionally, Christian Watson, Aaron Jones, and AJ Dillon all ranked in the top 20 players last year in terms of yards after the catch (YAC) per reception. And with their interior roles, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave will also factor into the mix.
But quantitatively, Doubs’s perimeter role doesn’t. Doubs played 77.6% of his snaps from the outside in 2022 and should continue to function as Green Bay's X-receiver. With a 4.6 YAC per reception in 2022 (fifth-best on the team last year, tied with Robert Tonyan), Doubs will need more explosive plays to outperform his mid-round ADP.
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