Fantasy Football Strategy. Predicting the First Round of 2024 Fantasy Drafts.

The 2023 fantasy season is officially in the rear-view mirror, which means that there’s plenty of time to meditate over optimal draft strategies while analyzing new free agent signings and draft picks for next season.

Today’s goal centers around taking an early look at whom the masses will be considering in Round 1 ahead of the 2024 season. We’ll stick with basic one-QB, full-PPR, 12-team league settings.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

1.01: RB - Christian McCaffrey, 49ers

CMC is on pace to become just the 12th player in NFL history to gain over 2,000 total yards and score 20-plus TDs in a single season. Whether or not that’s good enough for MVP honors remains to be seen; just realize this San Fran version of McCaffrey is up there with the very best fantasy producers the position has seen in quite some time.

Overall, there have been just seven instances of an RB averaging 25-plus PPR points per game in a single season over the past 10 years (min. 8 games):

1. 2019 McCaffrey (29.5 PPR points per game)
2. 2018 Todd Gurley (26.6)
3. 2016 Le’Veon Bell (26.5)
4. 2017 Gurley (25.6)
5. 2016 David Johnson (25.5)
6. 2023 McCaffrey (25.2)
7. 2020 Alvin Kamara (25.2)

The only thing that has stopped CMC from being fantasy’s 1.01 in each of the past five seasons was the occasional misguided belief that he was more injury-prone than other options at the top of the draft. The 27-year-old veteran hasn’t missed a game since 2021.

RBs usually don’t fall off a cliff in fantasy land until their age 29 season, while CMC has the sort of scoring upside and receiving volume to overcome any potential loss in rushing efficiency as he climbs over 1,500 career carries.

If his Week 15 performance was any indication: McCaffrey is poised to end the 2023 fantasy season in style and reward many of his managers with championship glory. Don’t be surprised if the longtime fantasy cheat code warrants consensus industry 1.01 treatment as the engine of the league’s single-most lethal offensive attack.

1.02: WR - Tyreek Hill, Dolphins

It remains to be seen whether Hill will cross the 2,000-yard mark. The Cheetah needs 458 more yards during his final three games against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills — each of which rank inside the league’s top-10 defenses in fewest receiving yards allowed to opposing WRs this season.

Of course, if anyone can make this happen — it’s probably Hill. His average of 24.8 PPR points per game is a full 3.2 points higher than WR2 CeeDee Lamb in 2023, while his 22.3 mark since joining the Dolphins in 2022 makes him one of two players at the position alongside Justin Jefferson (20.8) sitting north of 20.

The biggest question is whether or not the soon-to-be 30-year-old WR could be undone by Father Time sooner rather than later. Retirement isn’t a concern for at least another two years, but historically this is about the time we see WRs fall off a bit of a cliff.

And yet, nothing about Hill’s 2023 performance suggests any sort of physical decline is imminent considering:

• Hill possesses three of the top-eight fastest ball carrier speeds this season (Next-Gen Stats)
• Hill is averaging career-best marks in nearly every efficiency metric imaginable

Throw in a near-certain top-five scoring offense led by head coach Mike McDaniel and QB Tua Tagovailoa, and there isn’t a better pick to lead the WR position ahead of 2024.

1.03: WR - Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals

It looks like a sprained AC joint could end Chase’s 2023 season early. Still, kudos to the 23-year-old talent for turning in a 93-1,156-7 campaign in just 14 games despite having two months' worth of an injured Joe Burrow and Jake Browning under center.

The return of a healthy Joe Brrr in 2024 makes it easy to get behind Chase as a top-three overall pick in fantasy land. After all, he’s one of just four WRs to average at least 18 PPR points per game during the first three seasons of his career in the Moss era (1998-present):

• Odell Beckham Jr. (21.2 PPR points per game in the first three seasons of his career)
• Justin Jefferson (19.5)
• Randy Moss (19.2)
• Chase (18.5)

The tiebreaker between Chase and his former LSU teammate simply comes down to their respective situations under center…

1.04: WR - Justin Jefferson, Vikings

The biggest concern here is who will be throwing Jefferson the football:

• Kirk Cousins is an unrestricted free agent, will be 36 next August and could feasibly never be the same following his torn Achilles.
• A high-end rookie signal-caller seems unlikely without a monster trade-up considering the Vikings’ first-round pick currently projects for the No. 20 spot.
• The free agent QB market looks rather mid, with Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew, Jake Browning and Jameis Winston unironically headlining the class.

Maybe the front office will look to pull off a “blockbuster” trade … but even then who would be the best QB we could reasonably expect? Kyler Murray? Russell Wilson? Justin Fields? Derek Carr?

Okay, the Kyler one would actually be awesome (he was a Vikings fan growing up!); just realize more options than not paint the picture of a downgrade under center from Cousins, who was cooking to the tune of sixth- and eighth-place ranks in completion percentage over expected and EPA per dropback before getting injured.

If Hill, Chase and Jefferson all had the exact same volume and QB — give me JJ. Sadly, he carries more uncertainty under center than pretty much any other projected 2024 first-round WR and accordingly falls just a few spots from his near-consensus 2022 1.01 ranking.

1.05: WR - CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys

Back-to-back seasons with 100-plus receptions, 1,300-plus receiving yards and nine-plus TDs has a way of getting a guy into fantasy’s top-five overall picks, especially when that guy remains attached to Dak Prescott and an offense featuring very little in the form of legit target competition.

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) dives into the end zone for a a 3-yard rushing touchdown.

The Cowboys can save $17.5 million in cap space should they decide to make both Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup post-June 1 cuts; Lamb might very well project to lead the entire NFL in targets next season. This is a scary thought considering just how good the 24-year-old talent has been since entering the league in 2020 — and the reality that he’s improved in each and every season along the way:

• 2020: 1.81 yards per route run, 21.1% targets per route run
• 2021: 2.06, 21.7%
• 2022: 2.38, 25.9%
• 2023: 2.53, 26.9%

Throw in a Mike McCarthy-led offense that has thrown the ball at the 10th-highest rate in non-garbage time situations this season, and Lamb checks all of the talent, volume and offensive environment boxes with flying colors.

1.06: WR - A.J. Brown, Eagles

While AJB’s second half of the season hasn’t been overly electric following that unbelievable six-game streak with 125-plus receiving yards, there’s still little doubt that the 26-year-old talent remains one of the game’s very best players regardless of position.

Just look at what Brown has managed since joining forces with Jalen Hurts in 2022:

• Receptions: 183 (No. 8)
• Receiving yards: 2,810 (No. 2)
• Receiving TDs: 18 (No. 4)
• Yards per route run: 2.59 (No. 4)
• Targets per route run: 25.1% (No. 14)
• PPR points per game: 18.3 (No. 7)

The only “problems” are more pass-game competition than most WRs have to deal with in the form of DeVonta Smith as well as overall volume inside of the league’s current sixth-most run-heavy offense.

Even then: AJB profiles as the alpha dog target earner inside of an offense with a proven franchise QB who has proved capable of leading top-10 scoring units in back-to-back seasons. Slightly reduced chances of 180-plus target upside aren’t enough to keep this profile outside the top half of the first round.

1.07: RB - Jonathan Taylor, Colts

Taylor’s actual production in 2023 hasn’t quite gotten going. A “back” injury took away the first five games of the season, leading to muddled usage and production alongside suddenly competent No. 2 RB Zack Moss.

Right when JT really seemed to get going with a season-best 21.1 PPR points, he suffered a thumb injury that has sidelined him for three consecutive games and counting.

However, the former first-team All-Pro RB suddenly has two massive newfound factors working in his favor ahead of 2024:

• This offensive environment is actually really good. The Colts have scored 33 offensive TDs this season — tied for the 11th-highest mark in the NFL and just one single score behind the likes of the Chiefs, Rams and Chargers.
• Head coach Shane Steichen is down with featuring one workhorse RB. Whether it be Zack Moss or Taylor himself before his most recent injury: The Colts’ lead RB has regularly boasted an incredibly fantasy-friendly snap rate north of 90%.

There will probably be some bumpy stretches with second-year QB Anthony Richardson, although the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 4 overall pick did manage to lead the offense to 21, 31, 23 and 23 points in his four starts this season.

Taylor’s innate talent is as good as anyone at the position and there’s suddenly more optimism surrounding his offensive environment than ever thanks to Steichen and Richardson leading the charge. Contract issues are in the past as well: Better luck from the injury Gods seems to be all Taylor needs to reaffirm his status as the best fantasy RB not named Christian McCaffrey.

1.08: WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

Our one true Sun God has essentially only suffered one fantasy dud all season long. Already equipped with a career-high 1,175 yards and seven scores, the 2023 version of St. Brown has shown off more big-play ability and scoring upside than past editions.

The fantasy result: 19.4 PPR points per game — good for the fourth-highest mark at the position behind only Tyreek Hill (24.8), CeeDee Lamb (21.6) and Keenan Allen (21.5).

Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) runs against Denver Broncos safety P.J. Locke (6) and cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian (29) during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023.

The argument for St. Brown going this high comes down to the reality that this ever-brilliant Ben Johnson-schemed offense relies on him as the engine of their passing game. Guys like Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams are complements: The Sun God has a full *34* more targets than anyone else on the team despite having already missed one game.

St. Brown won’t be 25 until next October, meaning the PPR cheat code once again profiles as a young, explosive target-hog inside one of the game’s top-ranked scoring offenses. Throw in the tentative expected return of the ever-immobile Jared Goff under center, and it’d make sense if Brown’s 2024 campaign Spiderman-memes his current breakout year.

1.09: RB - Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

The rookie’s overall role is good, not great. The RB11 in expected PPR points per game (15.2), Gibbs’ average workload has exceeded that of guys like Isiah Pacheco (14.6), Bijan Robinson (13.7), Raheem Mostert (13.5) and Derrick Henry (13.2) among others thanks to that sweet, sweet pass-game usage.

Few RBs have been as productive as the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 12 overall pick in the passing game:

Most PPR points per game from purely receiving production:

1. Alvin Kamara (10.8)
2. Christian McCaffrey (10.7)
3. Breece Hall (8.2)
4. Rachaad White (8.2)
5. James Cook (7.7)
6. Austin Ekeler (7.6)
7. Saquon Barkley (7.1)
8. Gibbs (6.9)

There’s also the reality that Gibbs has emerged as one of the game’s most efficient rushers. Yes, just 13% of his carries have come with eight-plus defenders in the box — the ninth-lowest mark in the league. Also yes, isn’t that at least partially a side effect of defenses simply being forced to defend the Lions differently with an explosive playmaker like Gibbs on the field in the first place?

Gibbs … and teammate David Montgomery have both been two of the league’s better RBs when it comes to consistently picking up yards after contact and making defenders miss.

While Montgomery isn’t going anywhere, Gibbs remains a safe bet for 15-plus combined carries and targets during any given week with legit RB1 overall upside if D-Mont was ever forced to miss game action for any reason. That’s tough to be overly critical of inside an offense that has ranked inside of the top-two most fantasy-friendly backfields in terms of expected PPR points per game in three consecutive seasons.

1.10: WR - Garrett Wilson, Jets

The Zach Wilson experience hasn’t made life easy for Wilson in 2023; just realize the second-year talent has largely made the most out of his opportunities anyway thanks to a ridiculous blend of contested- and after-the-catch ability.

There have been more than a few routes that featured Wilson getting all kinds of open … only to not even get the football thrown into the frame. ESPN analytics rank Wilson as one of just six receivers with an “Open rate” of at least 85:

• Brandon Aiyuk (92)
• Keenan Allen (91)
• Wilson (87)
• CeeDee Lamb (87)
• A.J. Brown (87)
• Tyreek Hill (85)

This hasn’t ALWAYS been on Zach — the Jets boast PFF’s single-worst offensive line after all — but then again he does rank 35th in completion percentage over expected (-2.9%).

Maybe 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers won’t be anything close to the same talent in 2024 upon returning from this year’s devastating Achilles injury. Then again, his comments on Tuesday paint the picture of someone interested in playing multiple more seasons — meaning Wilson should finally get to catch passes from, you know, a non-shitty QB for the first time in his professional career.

More third-year WRs populate the position’s top-12 fantasy performers than any other experience bucket: First-round ADP here is lofty, but Wilson’s combination of youth, talent and volume gives him the edge over more proven veterans like Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp among others despite his QB situation not fully being in the clear just yet.

1.11: WR - Stefon Diggs, Bills

Speaking of: Diggs finds himself on the edge of the first round due to a fairly brutal second half of 2023. Overall, the longtime stud receiver went for over 100 yards in five of his first six games while scoring five times but has zero such games with just three total scores in his last eight contests combined.

Part of this could be the change at offensive coordinator, although eight, 11, 11 and five targets isn’t exactly a small workload — especially when considering the latter performance came on an afternoon that featured just 15 pass attempts by Josh Allen. There have also been plenty of tough matchups along the way, with the Cowboys, Chiefs, Jets and Broncos standing out as defenses with top-tier secondaries to deal with.

Here’s the thing: Diggs’ first-half production still very much happened, once again leading him to a rather spectacular 17-game pace:

• 2020: 127 receptions-1,535 yards-8 TD
• 2021: 103-1,225-10
• 2022: 108-1,429-11
• 2023: 91-1,041-9 current, 111-1,264-10 pace

Diggs is certainly in a tier here. He’ll be 31 next November; it’d make sense if guys like him, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp and Keenan Allen have already played their best football … but those guys also aren’t still attached to Josh Allen inside of what is typically one of the most pass-happy offenses in the league. 

1.12: RB - Kyren Williams, Rams

Williams has largely come out of nowhere to emerge as one of the most fantasy-friendly options in the game. While plenty of his early-season dominance was enhanced scoring and receiving opportunities with Cooper Kupp sidelined, the second-year RB has played like a man possessed in four games since returning from a hamstring injury:

• Week 12: 204 total yards, 2 TD, PPR RB1
• Week 13: 112 yards, 1 TD, RB9
• Week 14: 113 yards, 0 TD, RB18
• Week 15: 155 yards, 1 TD, RB3

Of course, the real story here is the role that head coach Sean McVay has afforded him. No RB outside of San Francisco has more consistently been featured as a true every-down workhorse than Williams this season.

It’s tough to see the Rams going out of their way to shuffle the backfield with how well Williams has performed. Even the insertion of something resembling an early-down complement would still render the league’s current RB2 in PPR points per game as the lead overall back with control of the backfield’s fantasy-friendly pass-down work.

Concern about Williams being a one-year wonder is somewhat warranted given the history of draft capital, although it’s hard to argue about his current status as a top-three fantasy RB thanks to the volume inside anyone’s idea of a truly good offense … making it tough to be too concerned about the Golden Domer flopping in 2024.

Honorable mention in no particular order

• Jets RB Breece Hall just missed the cut here. The dropoffs in yards per carry (5.8 vs. 4.2) and yards per reception (11.5 vs. 8.3) from Year 1 to Year 2 are concerning enough to not jam him inside the top 10 even with the return of Aaron Rodgers certainly expected to improve the scoring upside at hand.
   
• Jaguars RB Travis Etienne looked like a shoo-in for this list during the first half of the season, but his once-elite efficiency and workload have both tailed off during the last two months. Overall, ETN’s yards per carry has cratered from 5.1 to 3.7 in large part due to the Jaguars’ league-worst offensive line in rush yards before contact per attempt. I don’t disagree with ranking the Jaguars’ lead back as a top-five option at the position, but I’d rather take some of the WRs in Round 1.
   
• Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, like a lot of RBs, has the talent to be a first-round fantasy pick, but his efficiency numbers — while good — don’t match his generational label, and sadly his maddening usage isn’t guaranteed to change should Falcons head coach Arthur Smith return in 2024.
   
• Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has been playing through the pain for most of 2023; just realize his efficiency numbers have fallen off a cliff, and it’s hard to see him finding the sort of fantasy-friendly usage he saw from 2019 to 2022 in another offense.
   
• Raiders WR Davante Adams, Rams WR Cooper Kupp and Keenan Allen are all on the wrong side of 30 despite certainly still flashing plenty of high-end ability at various points in 2023.
   
• 49ers WR Deebo Samuel is undoubtedly a dog, although — like Achane — he pretty much has to be one of the game’s single-best talents in order to make up for his overall mid-volume. Life inside the 49ers’ ever-prolific offense certainly helps add plenty of scoring upside; just realize Deebo’s 17-game pace for targets this season is just 98 if you don’t factor in the game missed to injury.
   
• Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is coming off an underwhelming (for him) campaign despite having the potential to register yet another overall TE1 finish. The rise of guys like Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride and George Kittle among others has shrunk the gap between Kelce vs. everyone else at the position.
   
• Bills QB Josh Allen and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts could both warrant Round 2 consideration considering they each boast the most fantasy-friendly skill sets in the game. Overall, Allen (24) and Hurts (23.9) join Patrick Mahomes (21.6) as the only QBs averaging north of 20 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons.
   
• Dolphins RB De’Von Achane has received 22, 11, 12, 20, 12 and 12 touches in his six fully healthy games this season. The corresponding production has been incredible, but he needs to be the game’s most efficient player in order to maintain high-end numbers with that sort of volume.
   
• Both Giants RB Saquon Barkley and Cowboys RB Tony Pollard could be playing for new employers in 2024 — and the grass is seldom greener on the other side when RBs change teams in free agency.
   
• Saints RB Alvin Kamara will probably have a QB and coach change, making his robust receiving role far from guaranteed to stick entering his eighth season. The efficiency at hand has already been in the crater for a few years now and Kamara will be 29 in July.
   
• Buccaneers RB Rachaad White will continue to be tough to keep out of the weekly top-10 conversation so long as Tampa Bay continues to feature him as one of the league’s most-fed backs.