Preseason football is like the remote control for your TV. Could you live without it? Sure. But would life be worse without it? Yes.
Luckily for us, preseason football exists once again in 2023. A full slate of meaningless games, but ones that will have some potentially massive implications for players trying to win starting jobs or crack a roster.
There is also betting which we are obliged to do because, well, football (note, we went 2-0 on our first two preseason bets).
Love it or hate it, preseason football is here and your Week 1 preview (and bets) are below.
Week 1 NFL preseason preview
As much as we joke, the preseason can also have a big impact on player ADPs and betting markets, such as Offensive Rookie of the Year. A big play can cause the popularity of a previously unheralded or out-of-favor name to skyrocket. If you’re involved in best ball or dynasty leagues, it’s vital you keep at least a glancing eye on the games this week.
Three of the biggest storylines and narratives for Week 1 of the NFL preseason are below.
How will the rookie quarterbacks fair?
Without a doubt, the biggest focus of Week 1 will be on how the rookie triumvirate of Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, and Bryce Young fare in their first taste of real game action. Obviously, as very impartial football experts who never overreact to singular clips of guys making awesome catches without actual pads on, none of us will read too much into this game.
However, despite this being preseason and half the players on the field destined to be seen in the XFL and USFL this spring, you can count on a lot of overreaction. Understanding this will be important as the emotion of a C.J. Stroud 60 TD pass or a Bryce Young INT could also lead to overreactions in both the betting and fantasy marketplaces as well. A poor performance by any one of these three players could cause their ADP to drop or betting odds to plummet in the OROY market.
In terms of betting, Anthony Richardson has made the biggest move in that area since the draft and currently sits with the second shortest odds among the QBs at +700 (down from where he opened at +1100). Richardson has been lighting up training camp over the last week and seems the most likely to have his sentiment shift based on how he plays.
Bryce Young has already been announced as the Panthers starter so any big play by him likely won’t move the needle much in betting. It could cause his ADP to plummet in best ball drafts though where he is currently ranked just 178.3 on Underdog.
Stroud is in the most interesting spot as he hasn’t been gifted the starting position like Young, but also comes in with the highest ADP (192.7 on Underdog) and the longest betting odds in the OROY market.
Stroud does seem to be undervalued based on where Anthony Richardson is going in best ball, especially given neither has been confirmed as the Week 1 starter yet. We’ll see if this week’s preseason games provide any clarity on that situation for either of these players.
Camp Battles: Mayfield vs Trask, Howell vs Brissett
Down in Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask have been going head-to-head all training camp. The competition is so close right now in Tampa that the Buccaneers went out and listed their starting quarterback as Baker Mayfield OR Kyle Trask on the team’s first depth chart.
Jul 30, 2023; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Kyle Trask (2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) work out during training camp at AdventHealth Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Mayfield will start this week against the Steelers, but Trask is already slated to start Week 2.
Trask has reportedly been showing better arm strength and better upside all camp and looks poised to push Mayfield in the preseason.
In Washington, Sam Howell entered preseason as the perceived starter but Jacoby Brissett has closed the gap, with his coach lauding praise on the veteran.
Howell should get plenty of run this preseason but needs some good performances. Brissett supported a top 10 WR last year in Amari Cooper so if he does win it’s likely a small bump for the Commanders WR crew – mainly Terry McLaurin.
Jordan Love, Mac Jones, and Desmond Ridder in “prove it” seasons
Again, it’s just one game but the microscope is out on all three of these players in 2023 and it will start from snap one in the preseason.
All of the Week 1 NFL preseason games are listed below with a few extra notes about what to watch and look for in each matchup.
Thursday, Aug. 10
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, 7 p.m.
- Tyquan Thornton seems like he’s the odd man out in the WR rotation for New England. He may need a big showing to crack the top three.
- C.J. Stroud is slated to start for Houston, as noted above his performance could have big implications for fantasy and betting.
- Also, don’t forget about WR John Metchie who will be taking the field for the first time after sitting out his rookie season with Leukemia. Metchie could be slated to work as the defacto WR1 for Houston and a big showing would certainly boost his ADP.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks, 10 p.m.
- This may be the first time we see rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba (his status isn’t confirmed) and Jordan Addison in an NFL game. Any big play by either will have ripple effects.
- The Vikings backup RB competition is something to watch. Ty Chandler hasn’t looked good or been hurt so rookie DeWayne McBride could make headway.
Friday, Aug. 11
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals, 7 p.m.
- The Bengals will be without Joe Burrow and you should expect to see limited starters for them in this game after the injury scare to their star.
- The Packers side will be far more interesting with Jordan Love taking centre stage as the team’s confirmed starter for the first time.
- We’ll also get to see how rookie pass catchers Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave fit into the Packer’s offense
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7 p.m.
- The Steelers have a backup quarterback competition between Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph. Those two should get lots of playing time and make the Steelers a solid team for betting purposes this week (see below) given their experience.
- Tampa Bay is slated to start Baker Mayfield with Kyle Trask coming in as first relief. It remains to see how long either will actually play but Todd Bowles has hinted that a lot of starters will sit.
New York Giants at Detroit Lions, 7 p.m.
- We may get our first look at rookie Jahmyr Gibbs who is capable of busting a big play at any moment and causing his ADP to get even more extreme than it already is.
- It likely won’t be for long, but this game could also mark the first time we get to see Daniel Jones and Darren Waller on the field together.
- Waller has been getting a ton of praise in camp thus far.
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins, 7 p.m.
- Bijan Robinson… that’s it, that’s the tweet.
- Dolphins rookie RB De’Von Achane has been banged up but may actually suit up after returning to practice Tuesday.
- Desmond Ridder will be under the microscope although the Falcons have committed to him as starter already. He just needs to be competent.
Washington Commanders at Cleveland Browns, 7:30 p.m.
- Sam Howell vs Jacoby Brissett has turned into an actual camp battle with the coach continually singing the praises of the veteran.
- Howell is in the starter’s position for now and will start this game. Of all the starting quarterbacks suiting up Howell feels like he could be given the longest run just given his relative inexperience.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals, 10 p.m.
- The big story for this game is that the Broncos plan to play Russell Wilson and the starters for around 15 snaps.
- Expect Sean Payton to have an expertly scripted set of plays to start the game in order to boost the confidence of his players – and further cement his public drubbing of Nathaniel Hackett.
- The Cardinals will also be playing.
Dec 25, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) throws against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, Aug. 12
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
- The Titans likely won’t be playing their veterans but we should get a look at Will Levis who has been the forgotten man this preseason after falling in the draft.
- The Bears RB rotation will be something to watch. Rookie Roschon Johnson was listed as fifth-string RB on the team’s first depth chart.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
- Anthony Richardson is playing and that is reason enough to watch this game.
- On the other side, TE Dalton Kincaid may not get as much fanfare but it will be good to see how he fits in with the Bills offense and first stringers.
- The Bills are 5-1 in their last six preseason starts so try to avoid betting on Richardson this week.
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers, 4 p.m.
- The Jets will play their second preseason game after allowing the Browns to come back on them in the Hall-of-Fame game. We won’t see any Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson or Breece Hall.
- Bryce Young will get reps and we’ll also see how he works with his new WR crew.
- Rookie Jonathan Mingo has had an up-and-down camp but his talent is undeniable.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys, 5 p.m.
- Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars starters will play a series, likely no more.
- The Cowboys won’t be letting Dak Prescott anywhere near the field
- The backup quarterbacks for the Cowboys are decent but this game lacks appeal unless you’re betting.
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens, 7 p.m.
- The Ravens have won 24 preseason games in a row. It’s an impressive feat but the Eagles are a deep team and brought in an experienced backup in Marcus Mariota.
- We should get a look at rookie Zay Flowers in new OC Todd Monken’s offense. It’s doubtful the Ravens will be chucking it downfield much but you never know.
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams, 9 p.m.
- Neither of these teams take preseason seriously.
- Both teams have gone 1-5 over the past two preseasons.
- Blindly betting the under may not be a poor idea.
Sunday, Aug. 13
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
- Andy Reid does tend to play his starters in preseason and we should get a good look at WRs Justyn Ross, Richie James, Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice, who are all vying for their place on the depth chart.
- The Saints are expecting to give Derek Carr a series or two, which is why they sit as -3.0 favorites.
San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders, 4 p.m.
- The 49ers are another team to watch at QB. Brock Purdy is the starter (unless he suffers an injury setback) but the backup position is up for grabs between Trey Lance and Sam Darnold.
- Vegas seems highly unlikely to play many of their starters, especially Jimmy Garoppolo who was just medically cleared a couple of weeks ago.
Week 1 NFL Preseason Betting Preview
Cowboys ML (+150, BetMGM)
This line moved when Doug Pederson announced Trevor Lawrence as starter. Lawrence isn’t playing more than a couple drives (max) and after that it’s advantage Cowboys with Cooper Rush and Will Grier in at quarterback. Grier would undoubtedly love to push Rush for the backup job and featured in both Cowboys preseason wins last season (they went 2-1).
Pederson is also as nonchalant as they come in preseason. His last three years of coaching (including last year with the Jaguars and 2018-2020 with the Eagles) have produced a preseason record of 2-10 (straight up), with seven of those 10 losses coming by 10 or more points.
Jets @ Panthers Under 37.5 points (-110, BetMGM)
The Jets really didn’t look all that great outside of one completion from Zach Wilson. Their offense was so bad that they cut last year’s preseason hero Chris Streveler. As Our Head of Betting Matthew Freedman mentioned betting the unders on Hard Knocks teams in the preseason has been profitable.
It will also be hot in Carolina (above 90F) which plays to the under as well.
You can tail both of these bets at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
Week 1 NFL preseason DFS preview
- Stacks to target: Anthony Richardson and Alec Pierce / C.J. Stroud and John Metchie / Nick Mullens and Jordan Addison / Stetson Bennett and Puka Nucua
- Bellcow RBs: DeWayne McBride, Tyjae Spears, Zach Evans
- Yolo WRs: Tyquan Thorton, Cedric Tillman, Samori Toure
- Rushing Quarterbacks: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Malik Willis
