Sad but true: You can't score fantasy points without being on the field first.

While we can't necessarily control for future injuries, we can do our best to evaluate existing issues to determine the overall fantasy impact. And by "we," I mean actual doctors who are kind enough to offer fantasy-specific expertise, such as:

  • Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc on X)
  • Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept)
  • Jesse Morse, MD (@drjessemorse)
  • Deepak Chona, MD (@SportMDAnalysis)

Without further ado, here are a few QB injuries to be concerned about heading into the 2024 fantasy season, plus a few more to keep track of.

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins (right Achilles) and Jets QB Aaron Rodgers (left Achilles)

Don’t underestimate the difference here: Cousins' recovery from a RIGHT Achilles tear could prove to be more challenging than Rodgers' LEFT Achilles tear, as the back (right) leg is where right-handed QBs draw their power from while throwing.

Instead of following Rodgers' path, Cousins — who turns 36 in August — could be looking at a recovery more similar to that of Dan Marino, who noted, “It was a very tedious rehab. It didn’t actually heal all the way, so I had to deal with not being able to get up on my toe for the rest of my career.”

Of course, Marino threw for 4,453 yards and 30 TDs just one season removed from tearing his Achilles, and it’d make sense if modern medicine 30 years (!) in the future is a bit superior to what players were working with in the 1990s.

Still, it’d make a lot of sense if Cousins has to work much harder than Rodgers to get his usual throwing power back. It’s good news that he’s already throwing again, but multiple doctors have stated a decrease in arm strength is possible even while admitting that a Week 1 return is realistic.

Let’s face it: Cousins' high-end efficiency in 2023 wasn’t exactly the norm for the veteran signal-caller since he arrived in Minnesota.

  • 2018: -0.012 EPA per dropback (No. 29 among qualified QBs)
  • 2019: +0.199 (No. 7)
  • 2020: +0.188 (No. 10)
  • 2021: +0.137 (No. 10)
  • 2022: +0.058 (No. 19)
  • 2023: +0.145 (No. 6)

Then there’s Rodgers, who turned 40 in December and also isn’t guaranteed to be at his best come Week 1 of this season. That said, Aaron was believed to have a realistic chance of participating (at far less than 100%) in January, and he’ll be well within the usual Achilles rupture timetable of nine to 12 months by the time September rolls around.

Bottom line: Both Cousins and Rodgers should be ready to start by Week 1, but there’s more concern about Cousins’ return to full strength.

FL Mag

Giants QB Daniel Jones (knee)

A Week 1 return from his torn right ACL is “possible but not guaranteed,” according to Dr. Chona. Additionally, he notes that we should expect decreased rushing output in 2024. There also might be some neck issues that still need to be addressed here.

Any decrease in Jones’ rushing production would be detrimental to his 2024 fantasy upside.

Most fantasy points per game from purely rushing production 2022-2023 (min. 10 starts)

  1. Jalen Hurts (9.5)
  2. Justin Fields (9.0)
  3. Josh Allen (7.9)
  4. Lamar Jackson (7.4)
  5. Jones (6.3)

Meanwhile, Jones ranks 39th among 42 QBs in fantasy points per game from purely passing production (10.1) during this span. The former No. 6 overall pick hasn’t exactly been blessed with the world’s most friendly offensive environment, but his bottom-five marks in EPA per dropback (-0.211, 44th) and yards per attempt (5.7, 45th) were truly damning last season considering both Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito posted superior efficiency numbers across the board in the same offense.

Bottom line: Jones isn’t likely to be 100% as a rusher by Week 1, badly hurting his chances of holding off any sort of real potential competition (Drew Lock?) should the Giants look to upgrade at the position.

Four more QB injuries to monitor

Additionally, the following four QBs saw their 2023 season end due to an injury that isn't expected to impact their 2024 availability or performance:

  • Bengals QB Joe Burrow (wrist): Data strongly favors a return to full range of motion and grip strength. No long-term concerns are present and Burrow is fully expected to be back to 100% by Week 1.
  • Browns QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder): Dr. Chona doesn’t expect any lingering impact, and Dr. Mueller believes Watson “should” be good to go for 2024. The Browns seem to share this optimism.
  • Colts QB Anthony Richardson (shoulder): Both Dr. Morse and Dr. Chona believe Richardson will be 100% with no concerns for Week 1. Shoulder surgery is never ideal for a quarterback, but the most likely scenario is that everything works out.
  • Chargers QB Justin Herbert (finger): Expected to regain full strength well before training camp and isn’t expected to have any lingering impact from the injury in 2024.