Real or Fake? Examining Fantasy Football Trends Heading Into Week 3.

The 2023 fantasy season has taken absolutely no prisoners during its first two weeks.

From devastating injuries to random Rams players balling the hell out: It seems like there has been a particularly high amount of early-season madness this year.

Of course, every team has still only played 120 minutes of football – performance level and corresponding production can and will change over the course of the rest of the season.

What follows is a look at 11 trends through two weeks with an attempt to discern whether the numbers are real enough to keep on keeping on, or if the world will find out things are fake sooner rather than later.

1. Justin Fields isn’t running the football like last year

At least not in terms of designed runs.

Fields’ 2023 scramble rate (9.4%) is also pretty far removed from last year’s 15.8% mark, but the larger concern is that through two weeks of action, the reigning 1,143-yard rusher has just *four* designed rush attempts.

The first was a (failed) QB sneak on 4th and 1 in Week 1. The next featured Fields getting stuffed on a QB draw. The third such carry featured a read option pull pick up a few yards. And finally, Fields was stuffed on a sweep attempt.

That’s it!

Reminder: Fields racked up at least 60 yards in nine of his last 10 games of 2022 while totaling eight rushing scores on the season.

Obviously, the third-year QB’s progression as a passer hasn’t been what anyone would have hoped to see, but Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s refusal to feature, you know, the single most lethal part of the young QB’s game also is pretty far from ideal.

Fields (29.3) is just narrowly behind Lamar Jackson (29.4) in total fantasy points this season; he’s managed to somewhat save the day with garbage time production through two weeks of action. Still, it’d sure be a lot cooler if the Bears leaned into the ridiculous rushing talents of the 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 11 overall pick.

Real or fake: I’m going with fake here.

This wouldn’t be the first time an NFL offense had bigger dreams of opening up the offense before quickly realizing that wasn’t going to happen.

Look for Fields to get back to embracing the grind in the run game in a major way, even if the passing progression never quite comes along.

2. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes-led attack has been pretty mid!

The Chiefs totaled just two games with 20 or fewer points in the 2018, 2019 and 2020 regular seasons combined. That means they scored 21-plus points in 46 of a possible 48 games.

Well, through two weeks of 2023… the Chiefs have failed to surpass 20 points even once. It made sense to blame Week 1’s relative dud on the lack of Travis Kelce, but last week’s 17-point effort against the Jaguars was a far cry from last season’s pair of 27-point efforts against the very same defense.

Mahomes has posted career-low efficiency and per-game counting numbers across the board as a passer; his career-high 37.5 rushing yards per game has been a major boost to his fantasy cause through two weeks.

The biggest difference between this year and last: explosive plays. 

Overall, the Chiefs rank just 15th in passing plays of 15-plus yards per attempt (12.2%) — a far cry from last year’s second-place 17% mark.

We can’t fully blame Mahomes, especially with his receivers not quite creating separation to the same extent this year. Per PFF, Chiefs pass-catchers collectively rank just 17th in percentage of targets to be considered “open” or “wide open” after ranking fifth in the NFL last season.

Real or fake: Fake – we all know better than to overly doubt Mahomes and company.

Week 1’s Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore mishaps nuked what was otherwise a perfectly fine performance from Mahomes, while even last week’s stat line would have looked quite a bit better had Kelce not dropped a potential second TD.

Week 3’s date against the Bears’ sorry excuse for an NFL team *should* produce the sort of blowup passing performance that we’re used to seeing out of this group.

3. The Rams are suddenly the best fantasy offense in football

What a time to be alive.

Seriously: This is ridiculous.

And as Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland explained in his ever-excellent Week 3 Utilization Report: There’s reason to believe the goodness will continue!

• Puka Nacua has a full 10 additional targets over anyone else in the NFL He’s shattering one rookie record after another and unironically deserves WR1 treatment in Week 3.
• Kyren Williams posted an elite 97% snap rate in Week 2 with Cam Akers (trade rumors) seemingly on the way out. One of just 11 RBs with more than 10 targets this season: Williams has one of the most fantasy-friendly roles in the league if this usage sticks
• Tutu Atwell is the WR16 in PPR points per game and hasn’t even had the sort of inevitable long TD that is always in play thanks to his speedy field-stretching ability.
• Matthew Stafford has more than passed the eye test on his way to throwing for more yards than anyone other than Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins.

Real or fake: This feels at least somewhat real after the Rams racked up 386 total yards of offense against the 49ers.

This defense has only allowed more yards than that in two of 20 games last season.

While the volume distribution figures to get switched around if/when Cooper Kupp (hamstring, IR) is back, Stafford and head coach Sean McVay certainly seem capable of cooking in fantasy land even without the reigning, defending, back-to-back fantasy WR1 in PPR points per game at their disposal.

4. Ja’Marr Chase has 10 catches for 70 scoreless yards

Joe Burrow has yet to complete a pass thrown at least 20 yards downfield, relegating one of the NFL’s most explosive playmakers to little more than a low-aDOT possession receiver.

Throw in a banged-up Burrow (calf) who is at risk of missing Week 3’s matchup against the Rams, and you have plenty of fantasy 1.02 drafters arriving at panic station.

Ultimately, believing in Chase is believing that even a … *looks up Bengals depth chart* …  Jake Browning-led version of this Bengals passing game won’t statistically be a bottom-five unit in the NFL:

• EPA per play: -0.223 (No. 28)
• EPA per pass: -0.298 (No. 28)
• Yard per play: 3.9 (No. 32)
• Yards per pass attempt: 4.2 (No. 32)

Real or fake: It’d certainly be way easier to cry out “fake” if Burrow wasn’t at risk of missing time.

Don’t get it twisted: Chase is far too talented to stay this quiet for much longer, but WRs have had far more problems maintaining elite fantasy production inside bottom-10 scoring offenses than RBs and TEs over the years.

Fantasy managers can’t afford to sell low on one of the game’s premiere receivers, but it’d make sense if this drought persists just a bit longer due to the uncertain situation under center.

5. Buccaneers country is BAKING

The 2-0 Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers haven’t exactly faced the toughest defenses in the Vikings (28th in scoring defense in 2022) and Bears (32nd), but credit where credit is due: This offense has found an early-season groove despite being written off by pretty much everyone before the season began.

Yes, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin make life a helluva lot easier for any QB.

Also yes, Mayfield himself deserves a lot of credit for the team’s hot start.

• EPA per dropback: +0.18 (No. 8 among 33 qualified QB
• PFF passing grade: 80.3 (No. 3)
• CPOE: +6.3% (No. 9)
• Passer rating: 105.1 (No. 6)
• Adjusted completion rate: 78.7% (No. 11)
• Yards per attempt: 7.4 (No. 10)

Real or fake: Real-ish in the sense that this group won’t be confused with the league’s single worst offense.

Mayfield has indeed played competent football for extended stretches before (just look at his second-half performance in both 2018 and 2020), and he’s being put in a good position to succeed with top-10 rates in play-action (29.3%) and no-huddle (15.4%) usage.

Potentially this year’s version of the 2022 Seahawks, at a minimum the Buccaneers profile as a far more average offense than anyone thought was possible a mere few weeks ago.

6. Why aren’t Trevor Lawrence and the Jags playing better?

Seriously: The Jaguars, Steelers and Jets have worked as the league’s three least-efficient offenses when looking at a combination of EPA per run and pass (TruMedia):

Things were oh so close to clicking in Week 2.

Overall, there were *four* instances of Jaguars pass-catchers coming down with the target in the end zone, but only getting one foot down inbounds.

Week 1’s 31-point effort against the Colts was certainly a better showing; just realize even that game didn’t produce fireworks, as all three of T-Law’s scoring drives came with the benefit of rather great field position.

Real or fake: I’m fading these early-season struggles in a major way.

If anything, the fact this offensive line has allowed the fourth-lowest pressure rate (27.1%) through two weeks is a great sign for things to come.

This offense has weapons all over the place and Lawrence still very much looks the part of the next big thing at the position. It’d make sense if the group finally puts together a sustained, dominant effort in Week 3 against the Texans.

7. Tua and company look absolutely lethal

The NFL leader in passing yards (715) and yards per attempt (9.5): Tua Tagovailoa is spearheading the NFL’s most efficient passing attack for the second season in a row.

Overall, the Dolphins have racked up 24 (!) completions of 15-plus yards; the Vikings (17) are the only other offense with more than 13 such plays.

While many are quick to criticize Tagovailoa’s ability to throw downfield, arguably nobody has been more efficient at doing so since he joined forces with Tyreek Hill and head coach Mike McDaniel.

Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) reacts after his touchdown against the New England Patriots in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Among 34 QBs with at least 25 pass attempts thrown at least 20 yards over the past two seasons:

• PFF pass grade: 94.8 (No. 3)
• Passer rating: 113.7 (tied for No. 2)
• Adjusted completion rate: 56.7% (No. 1)
• Yards per attempt: 17.7 (No. 2)

Real or fake: Very much real.

The fact that Tua overcame his toughest 2022 test (Chargers) with such flying colors in Week 1 was great to see, while even Bill Belichick and company couldn’t totally slow down this aerial assault.

There is simply so much speed to account for in this offense, and McDaniel has made the absolute most out of it by utilizing pre-snap shift/motion on a league-high 81.8% of the offense’s snaps this season.

8. Garrett Wilson is making the most out of a rough situation

First, Wilson made arguably the catch of the year on a goal-line fade against the Bills in Week 1.

Next, the 2022 NFL Draft’s No. 10 overall pick showed off some serious open-field speed by taking a short in-breaking route 68 yards to the house vs. the Cowboys.

Alas, the Zach Wilson experience continues to produce far more lows than highs. This offensive line allowing a league-high 55% pressure rate hasn’t helped; just realize this passing game ranks dead-ass last in EPA per attempt (-0.421) for a reason.

Real or fake: Real that Wilson is an absolute baller, but fake in terms of him maintaining elite WR1 production.

Don’t be surprised if the talented second-year wideout finds a way to clear the 1,000-yard mark again this year, but the growing sample size of this Zach Wilson-led offense simply being miserable at, you know, scoring points is awfully troubling.

Overall, the Jets have scored 16, 17, 20, 3, 17, 3, 22 and 10 points in Wilson’s last eight starts.

9. Josh Jacobs is having a rough go of things on the ground

The 2022 first-team All-Pro is yet to rip off a run longer than his new jersey number.

Seven receptions for 74 scoreless yards have somewhat saved the day in fantasy land, but this certainly hasn’t been a great start for the man who totaled 2,053 yards and 12 scores a season ago.

It’s tough to blame the newfound lack of efficiency on defenses loading the box more against Jimmy Garoppolo: Jacobs’ rate of carries with eight-plus defenders in the box isn’t significantly higher in 2023 (25%) than it was in 2022 (21%).

Rather, both Jacobs *and* this offensive line simply struggled to instill their will against both the Broncos and (especially) the Bills:

• The Raiders’ average of 0.8 yards before contact per carry is tied for 20th through two weeks. Last year’s average of 1.5 yards ranked 14th.
• Jacobs average missed tackles forced per attempt (0.26 vs. 0.18) and yards after contact per carry (3.4 vs. 1.9) have cratered relative to what we saw last season.

Overall, only Justice Hill (36.8%) and Cam Akers (45.5%) have gained at least two yards after contact on a lower percentage of their carries than Jacobs (46.4%) among 37 qualified RBs.

Real or fake: Maybe 2022 heights won’t be achieved, but I’m fading THIS bad of efficiency moving forward.

Back-to-back road trips to Denver and Buffalo hardly made life easy on anyone involved in this offense, while it also makes sense that Jacobs started slow after not joining the team until mid-August.

Ultimately, Jacobs’ utilization remains borderline erotic — he’s a prime buy-low candidate at the moment.

10. This Cowboys defense looks like an absolute juggernaut

One of my favorite team defense stats is “Havoc Rate”, which takes the sum of a group’s tackles for a loss or no gain, forced fumbles, interceptions, pass deflections and pressures before dividing by total plays faced.

A really good havoc rate is usually anything above 50%. Nine defenses have pulled this off through two weeks of action:

1. Cowboys (80.2%)
2. Saints (59.1%)
3. Bills (58.7%)
4. Packers (58.1%)
5. Commanders (57.5%)
6. Browns (57%)
7. 49ers (54%)
8. Steelers (53.1%)
9. Eagles (51.1%)

Micah Parsons and company have made life absolute hell for both Daniel Jones and Zach Wlison this season, unleashing a combination of elite pressure (62.8%, No. 1) and sticky coverage (21.4% contested target rate, No. 1) that is quite literally unmatched around the league.

Real or fake: Fake in that these numbers won’t stay THIS high, but there does seem to be a real chance the best defense in football now resides in Dallas.

Matchups against the Cardinals and Patriots likely won’t give this group a real test over the next two weeks; just realize for now this pass rush looks capable of f*cking up any offensive line, while the addition of Stephon Gilmore has this ball-hawking secondary sitting pretty with PFF’s No. 1 coverage grade after two weeks of action.

11. The Bills are letting James cook

Just look at this utilization!

The second-year RB has made the most out of his opportunities along the way, posting top-10 marks in missed tackles forced per carry (0.28), yards per carry (5.8) yards after contact per carry (4.4) and yards per route run (1.13).

Yes, the Bills seem content to let Latavius Murray and Damien Harris handle the majority of goal-line work.

Also yes, Cook is on pace for a whopping 315 touches and 1,887 total yards after two weeks of action.

Real or fake: Fake in that I would take the under on those aforementioned touch and yardage projections, real in that Cook has solidified himself as a weekly upside RB2 inside this ever-potent Bills attack.

Beggars can’t be choosers in fantasy land: 15-plus combined carries and targets per week inside of this Josh Allen-led attack can and will go a long way this season.

It’d be cooler if the Bills gave Cook a goal-line carry here and there, but the young back’s explosive pass-catching ability is more than enough to make up for a lack of short-down-and-distance usage.