Regression Session: Divisional Round. Will Mike Evans bounce back?
Wild Card weekend delivered on its name with some stunning upsets and unexpected performances. We are now down to eight teams left in the field and just seven games remaining before the season is over.
We’ll be on to evaluating the 2024 draft class in no time so let’s enjoy the final stretch of the playoffs. Today I’ll be digging into the top regression candidates of the players remaining in the field as we look to capitalize on the final few DFS and betting slates left this season.
Positive Regression
Mike Evans, WR - Buccaneers
I’ll be the first to admit that I thought Tampa Bay would need a big game from their top WR in order to get past the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs. It turns out the Eagles weren’t all that interested in tackling or playing defense in general as they allowed Baker Mayfield to shred them for 337 passing yards and three TDs.
Mike Evans only accounted for 48 of those yards and managed just three catches for the third straight game, but he was very close to hitting for a long TD if not for this sheesh-worth drop.
For the season, Evans has a 24% target share which equates to nearly 7.5 targets and 5.5 receptions per game so he’s only been delivering around half his usual catch production. He also recorded 13 receiving TDs through his first 15 games of the season but has now gone scoreless in three straight games. We can’t expect him to average nearly a TD per game, that is too efficient, but we also shouldn’t expect him to go scoreless for too long of a stretch.
While it was a major disappointment that Evans failed to capitalize on his 134 air yards last week against a soft Philly pass defense, he gets another plus matchup against a Detroit secondary that has given up the third most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs this season.
Tampa Bay was willing to go pass-heavy against the Eagles last week and should take a similar approach again if they want to exploit where Detroit is weakest. The big plays against the Eagles happened to fall to David Moore, Trey Palmer, and Chris Godwin but Evans is one of the most established WRs in the NFL. If the Bucs let Baker air it out again the odds are pretty good that Evans reels in a long pass, a TD, or both.
Jayden Reed, WR- Packers
Over his final three games during the regular season, Jayden Reed accumulated 16 catches for 253 receiving yards and three TDs. He was then held without a catch in the Wild Card round as the Packers trounced the Cowboys.
Reed has been dealing with a variety of injuries over the last few weeks which have cost him practice time and even forced him to miss Week 16. The injuries may have played some role in why he was limited to just 52% route participation against Dallas but there were also scheme reasons as Green Bay utilized 12 personnel (two TEs on the field) frequently which reduced the number of snaps available to their WRs.
That reliance on 12 personnel seemed to be a game plan-specific adjustment that very well might not carry over to their upcoming matchup in San Francisco. Some of this expectation is based on my belief that Reed is the Packers' most talented receiver and they will need him if they are going to beat a 49ers defense that won’t let Aaron Jones run all over them the way Dallas did.
When Reed was on the field last week he still commanded a 27% target per route run rate which suggests that he wasn’t just out there to be a decoy. If his snaps and routes bounce back this week his production should as well.
Reed is one of my favorite plays in DFS and Battle Royale contests this weekend as the market may be overreacting to his catchless game.
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Negative Regression
Isaiah Likely, TE - Ravens
We’re all familiar with the concept of handcuffing your star running back in fantasy football, but Isaiah Likely has been a rare example of a handcuff TE this season. Since Mark Andrews went down in Week 11, Likely has stepped up to being a full-time player and run 80+% of routes in each game except for Week 18 when Baltimore already had the top seed locked up.
In the five games from Week 12 to Week 17 where Baltimore was giving maximum effort, Likely finished as a top-5 fantasy TE in three of those games. He compiled 293 receiving yards and scored four times which made him the fourth-highest-scoring TE over that stretch. Before Week 12, Likely hadn’t recorded 100 total receiving or scored a TD yet this season.
Dec 31, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) runs following his catch for a second-quarter touchdown against the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
It wasn’t a surprise that Likely’s usage spiked when Andrews went down, but it was a bit of a surprise just how productive he was on that usage. According to the PFF Expected Points model, his workload resulted in the 15th most expected fantasy points at the TE position so his TE4 production was actually pretty significant outperformance, thanks in large part to some long TD plays like this.
The bad news for Likely’s usage is that Andrews has been designated to return from IR and was a full participant in practice this week. Although Likely has done enough to earn a larger role than he had in the early part of the Ravens campaign, we have to expect that Andrews’ return will reduce the number of routes and targets available for him.
Likely has proven capable of creating big plays on his own (this one comes to mind) so I wouldn’t be surprised if he has one or two impact plays left to contribute this year but the combination of unsustainable TD efficiency and a declining role make it difficult to see him as a player we can feel comfortable relying on in any type of fantasy contest during these final few weeks.
Khalil Shakir, WR- Bills
One of the better plays of Wild Card weekend was this incredible effort by Khalil Shakir to take a short crossing route to the house and help the Bills put away the Steelers in the fourth quarter. While it was an extremely impressive play, it did account for 55% of his receiving yards and 77% of his fantasy points. If this first defender had been able to make the tackle he would have likely just put up just three catches for 16 yards in the game.
A major complicating factor for Shakir’s fantasy outlook is the health of fellow WR Gabe Davis who suffered a ‘minor’ PCL sprain in Week 18 and missed their opening playoff game. With Davis out of the picture, Shakir did record his two highest route participation % games of the season in the Bills' last two contests.
If Davis sits again, Shakir should slot into a near-every-down role. That does give him theoretical upside, but he has failed to command targets with his 16% target share in Week 18 marking a season-high.
Despite the flashes of talent he has shown this season, Shakir’s role really hasn’t been very valuable as he hasn’t hit 60 air yards or been targeted in the end zone in any games this season. He essentially has to break a big play on his own to deliver fantasy value with that kind of role. He’s managed to do that in two straight weeks (he had a 46-yard reception in Week 18) but it will be tough for him to pull it off again.
