Regression Session. Early 2024 Fantasy Football Regression Candidates.
With just four teams left vying for the Super Bowl, it is time to turn our attention to 2024. I wrote about some season-long regression candidates in Week 18 and will be focusing on a similar set of players this week.
This group of veterans stands out for over or underperforming their career averages in efficiency metrics and there are multiple reasons to suggest those numbers are likely to regress toward their long-term averages rather than stay at the level we saw in 2023.
As the 2024 draft season rolls around it will be very interesting to see where each of these players is being drafted. If their respective ADPs only reflect their production from this most recent season then these players will be towards the top of the lists of players I am targeting vs fading.
Positive Regression
Javonte Williams, RB - Broncos
In some ways the 2023 season can be considered a success for Javonte Williams as he managed to return from a multi-ligament knee injury ahead of schedule and played nearly the full season, missing just one game. Whether or not fantasy managers remember that when drafting for 2024 is still to be determined.
Those who simply look at the box scores from last season probably won’t have any interest in Williams. He never put up more than 85 rushing yards in a single game and finished as a top-10 fantasy RB just three times in the 16 games he played.
Williams posted career lows in YPC (3.6), yards after contact per attempt (2.71), and missed tackles forced per attempt (0.16) and he wasn’t just a little bit below his career averages, the drop-off was significant.
Dec 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) celebrates his touchdown scored against the against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
This shouldn’t be too surprising as there is a well-documented trend of RB efficiency taking a hit in the first year following a significant knee injury. There is also a pretty strong track record of those same RBs bouncing back in the second year after that knee injury. Javonte Williams will be just 24 years old next season which makes him a prime candidate to follow that trajectory and put up much better efficiency numbers in 2024.
There is also a silver lining in Williams’ 2023 stats that hasn’t been getting much attention. In his first season in a Sean Payton offense, Williams posted career highs in targets (55), receptions (47), and YPRR (1.34). He ranked 10th among all RBs in YPRR, finishing just behind Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, and Jaylen Warren. While that stat may not be as important for RBs as it is for WRs, I believe it has some signal in this case because it is a notable outlier in a year when all his other efficiency metrics were down.
Lastly, we are going to see a revamped Broncos offense next year as it seems likely they will move on from Russell Wilson and continue to move towards the style of football that Payton wants to play. Those offenses have almost always featured elite RB production and that should be the case again with a fully healthy Williams.
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Rhamondre Stevenson, RB - Patriots
Another RB who saw his efficiency decline in 2023 is Rhamondre Stevenson. After a strong first two seasons in New England, Stevenson posted career lows in YPC (4.0) and yards after contact per attempt (2.8).
His explosive runs also dried up as he managed to gain 10+ yards on just over 6% of his carries this season compared to over 14% of his carries through his first two seasons.
Stevenson struggled with injuries throughout the season and only played in 12 games this year. He also didn’t see as many high value touches as I would have expected coming into the year, partly due to offensive incompetence, but also due to Ezekiel Elliot having a larger role than expected.
Looking ahead to the 2024 season, the Patriots are undergoing a full rebuild after parting ways with Bill Belichick and although they may not be a contender as early as next year they do seem likely to invest heavily in adding offensive talent going into next season. With Stevenson in place, they should be looking to upgrade pretty much every other position around him and are widely expected to take a QB at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft.
We’ve seen enough to know Stevenson is an above average talent at the RB position and next year will be his age 26 season so I’m not worried about the age cliff yet. With fresh leadership and a revamped offense, Stevenson is poised to bounce back and produce the explosive plays that made him a valuable weapon in the 2022 season.
Negative Regression
George Kittle, TE - 49ers
In a year where a lot of attention was given to the rookie TE class, George Kittle put up one of the better seasons of his career. Utilized as more of a downfield threat this season, he posted career highs in aDOT (9.9) and yards per reception (15.7) while remaining an elite YAC threat as he tied for the second-best YAC per reception number among TEs with at least 40 targets.
Kittle has always been an efficient and explosive player, but he took it to a new level this season with his yards per reception mark being more than 2.5 yards better than any other player at the position. Of course, it helps to play in one of the league’s best offenses and finally get a full season of consistent QB play, something he has rarely had up to this point.
Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) runs with the ball after making a catch for a first down against the Baltimore Ravens in the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
The offense and QB aren’t expected to change going into next season so the potential is still there for Kittle to be the most efficient player at his position again in 2024. The problem for fantasy managers is that if his elite efficiency dips, he is unlikely to see enough volume to remain a top fantasy option at the TE position.
In an offense with so many great weapons, Kittle (understandably) doesn’t have the highest target volume or see a ton of end zone targets. In fact, he has averaged just 87 targets per season over the last three years despite playing at least 14 games in each of those seasons.
Another cause for concern is the fact that next season will be Kittle’s age 31 season. He’s entering the territory where his physical style and explosive play ability could result in a quicker decline than we have seen from other aging TEs.
With all the up-and-coming talent at the TE position, I will find it hard to justify spending valuable draft capital on a player with so many risk factors.
Amari Cooper, WR - Browns
If someone had told me coming into this season that Amari Cooper would post career highs in most receiving categories I would have assumed that Deshaun Watson must have returned to being the player we saw during his peak years in Houston.
I never would have guessed that a lot of Cooper’s production would happen with players like Joe Flacco and P.J. Walker under center but here we are. It was a lot of fun to see the Browns let Flacco air it out and make big plays with his top receiver, but there is a good chance that electric end of the season will carry too much weight in the minds of fantasy managers heading into next year.
Cooper was solid throughout most of the season as he managed to put up three games with 100+ receiving yards before Flacco took over in Week 13, but it will be easy to forget just how much of his season-long production came in those final few games with Flacco slinging the rock.
In the three games from Week 14 - 16 Cooper accumulated an incredible 36% of his total receiving yards and 60% of his receiving TDs for the season.
Not only did that hot streak boost his numbers so much that it gives a somewhat misleading picture of his full season, that production came with a QB he may not get to play with next year. The Browns are financially committed to Watson so he is likely to be the starter heading into the 2024 season. As we saw in 2023, that doesn’t necessarily mean he will play all the games but it is unlikely that whoever the backup in Cleveland is will be anywhere near as effective as Flacco was down the stretch.
Cooper’s 2023 season will likely end up looking like a true anomaly which could result in fantasy managers getting burned in 2024 if they draft him with the expectation he can match those numbers.
