Regression Session. Early 2024 Regression Candidates.

It may only be February and there is still technically one game left before the offseason, but if you’re anything like me then you are already thinking about potential breakouts, values, and busts for next season.

My lawyers have advised against it but I’m not afraid to admit that I’ve already drafted double-digit best ball teams for the 2024 season and don’t plan on slowing down anytime soon.

Is it a sickness? Maybe. But why let the offseason be boring when we can be drafting and preparing for next season instead?

I’ve already written about some 2024 regression candidates during Week 18 and Conference Championship Week and have another set of four players to keep in mind as you start drafting for next season.

Positive Regression

Davante Adams, WR - Raiders

It was a season of turmoil for the Las Vegas Raiders and that had an impact on their star players, particularly Davante Adams. The team fired Josh McDaniels midseason and turned the keys over to Antonio Pierce who did a great job rallying the team and will remain the HC heading into the 2024 season. 

In addition to the turnover at the top, the Raiders offense bounced between QBs with Jimmy Garoppolo, Aidan O’Connell, and Brian Hoyer all playing meaningful snaps. It is not exactly an ideal setup for one of the league’s most talented wideouts.

Despite all that, Adams remained one of the most heavily utilized weapons in the NFL, ranking second in targets (171) and ninth in catches (103). The issue was primarily with his efficiency where he was below his career averages in a number of categories.

At 31 years old, there is some concern that he could be slowing down and becoming a less effective player. However, Adams still ranked as a top 15 WR in ESPN’s Open Score and still showed the ability to absolutely dominate games (he had 20+ targets in two games this season) which makes me believe the issue was more due to the organization around him rather than an actual decline in play.

The Raiders are widely expected to upgrade the QB position this offseason and seem like a prime landing spot for a veteran QB rather than a rookie which should help with hitting the ground running early in the season. Additionally, the Raiders’ new OC Luke Getsy served as the Packers' WR coach and passing game coordinator during some of Davante’s best seasons in Green Bay so there should be a level of familiarity and understanding of how to use him most effectively. 

Of course, there are rumors Adams could be a trade target this offseason so we’ll have to reassess if he gets moved, but in the meantime, the pieces seem to be falling into place for a bounce-back season in Las Vegas.

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Drake London, WR - Falcons

One of the teams I am most excited to see take the field early next season is the Atlanta Falcons. Their offense is loaded with talent and the coaching staff was overhauled this offseason with Raheem Morris taking over as HC and bringing Zac Robinson with him from Los Angeles to serve as the OC. 

These weren’t the biggest headlines of the 2024 coaching carousel but I believe they will be a big upgrade for the pass catchers in Atlanta. It’s also clear that Morris understands what he has with his young offensive weapons.

The team is also expected to make a change at the QB position which should be a positive catalyst for the passing game as well. Drake London has flashed plenty of talent throughout his first two seasons but the Falcons have been one of the lowest pass volume teams in the NFL during that time.

Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) catches a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

An offensive reset is much needed and my expectation is that a new coaching staff and new QB will result in more passing volume which should directly benefit London. Even without projecting a meaningful increase in targets, London is a positive regression candidate in the TD department after only hauling in two receiving TDs on his 106 targets in 2023. According to the PFF Expected Points model, London’s usage should have resulted in closer to five receiving TDs. 

At 6’5” and with a contested catch rate above 50% in each of his first two seasons he should be one of the team’s primary red zone weapons, but I guess this is what happens when you have Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder running the offense.

We will need to see how the QB situation shakes out but assuming the Falcons bring in someone decent I am going to be extremely high on Drake London’s potential for 2024.

Negative Regression

Isaiah Likely, TE - Ravens

You don’t usually hear about handcuffing TEs in fantasy football but if there ever was one, it’s Isaiah Likely. From the time Mark Andrews went down in Week 11, Likely became a full-time player and flashed plenty of upside. He topped 80% route participation in every meaningful regular season game from that point on and managed to score four TDs during the most important stretch of the fantasy football season from Weeks 14 - 17.

However, fantasy managers will almost certainly remember his usage being better than it was thanks to his strong TD production and handful of highlight reel plays. The reality is that despite being a full-time player in an offense that was lacking great pass catchers, Likely only topped a 20% target share once during that stretch and his 13% target per route run rate is actually pretty poor.

He also wasn’t much of a threat in the red zone, getting just one end-zone target during this stretch of games. For comparison, Andrews had six end zone targets in the nine healthy games he played during the regular season. 

The PFF Expected Points model backs up how unsustainable his TD production was down the stretch as they had him at just 2.5 expected TDs for the full regular season. 

I don’t want to completely gloss over the fact that Likely is an explosive playmaker who created a lot of his own yards after the catch, but I’m going to be very cautious with him in 2024 drafts if his price continues to rise. 

James Conner, RB - Cardinals

It isn’t too often that we see a veteran RB post a career year on a losing team with a bad offense, but that is exactly what James Conner managed to do in 2023. Despite Arizona finishing the season with a 4-13 record and the ninth-worst-scoring offense in the league, Conner set new career highs in most major rushing categories. 

The seventh-year pro recorded the first 1,000 rushing-yard season of his career and was very efficient doing so. His 5.0 YPC, 3.93 yards after contact per attempt, and 60 forced missed tackles were all personal bests and he ranked as a top 5 RB in each of those categories. Even more impressively, he managed to set those new career highs in just 13 games.

Jan 7, 2024; Glendale, Ariz, U.S.; Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (6) runs against Seattle Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen (27)during the first quarter.

Hopefully, the Cardinals offense will take a step forward in 2024 which could help sustain Conner’s production, particularly if there are more scoring opportunities to go around. However, 2024 will be Conner’s age 29 season and he is now over 1,100 carries in his NFL career. He has also missed a handful of games in virtually every season, playing more than 13 games just once in his last six campaigns. This is not the profile of a player we should expect to maintain elite efficiency numbers, especially when they are well above his career averages.

Beyond the negative regression in his per-touch efficiency, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals bring in more competition for touches via the NFL Draft of free agency. Arizona’s RB depth was pretty poor and they churned through a number of backups behind Conner in 2023. At his age, the team must be looking toward the future at the position and while I do expect him to retain the lead-back role to start the year, it could be more of a committee situation in 2024.

Finally, if Arizona decides to move on this offseason and cuts Conner, we have seen the market for older running backs be pretty dismal in recent seasons which makes it unlikely a team will make any real financial commitment to him.