Regression Session: Super Wild Card Weekend. Stefon Diggs' time is now.

The regular season is behind us but that doesn’t mean the fantasy football grind is over. Whether you’re playing DFS, drafting playoff best ball teams, or just getting a jump on your analysis for next season there is plenty to pay attention to over the next month. 

In some ways, the playoffs are a chance for teams to reset. Everyone still playing football at this point has a chance to make a run (yes, even the Steelers) and there are a number of fascinating matchups and impactful injuries to consider heading into the Wild Card round. 

With every team pulling out all the stops to give themselves the best chance to win, let's take a look at which players have been over or underperforming their usage and are poised to regress towards their long-term efficiency averages.

Positive Regression

Stefon Diggs

I wrote about Stefon Diggs a few weeks ago and unfortunately, his fantasy production hasn’t bounced back to the level I was expecting. The good news is that his usage remains really strong which means he remains a strong positive regression candidate.

Over the final five weeks of the regular season Diggs averaged a 31% target share, 34% air yard share, and 30% share of end zone targets. These averages are right in line with his full-season numbers, yet he has only finished as a top 30 WR in PPR scoring once during this stretch.

Through the first 13 weeks of the season, he finished as a top 20 WR nine times. His decline in production has coincided with the Bills taking a much more run-heavy approach in their games which has paid dividends. I don’t necessarily expect that to change in the playoffs, but there should still be enough volume for Diggs to have some big games.

Over that five-game stretch to end the regular season, he topped 100 air yards four times. Per the PFF Expected Points model, Diggs averaged five fewer fantasy points per game than his usage would predict over that time period, another clear sign that he is due for positive regression.

Finally, he may also have less competition for targets this week as Gabe Davis has missed practice with a knee injury that will likely either limit him or keep him out of the game entirely. All these factors are lining up to make Diggs a strong play this week.

Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard was one of the biggest disappointments of the season from a fantasy football perspective as he failed to live up to his lofty draft capital in his first year as the Cowboys’ featured RB.

We have had to adjust our expectations for his weekly ceiling, but he still delivered plenty of decent fantasy performances and ultimately accumulated more than 1,300 scrimmage yards and scored seven times. It was far from the elite season Pollard drafters were hoping for, but it wasn’t a complete disaster either.

Jan 7, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) carries the ball against the Washington Commanders during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas now enters the playoffs as the #2 seed in the NFC and will get another home game if they can take care of business against Green Bay on Sunday. The Cowboys’ home/road splits this season are significant and they are seven-point favorites against the Packers. 

The Green Bay defense isn’t anything to fear, especially against the run. They rank 22nd in rush EPA allowed per play and 19th in fantasy points allowed to the position. 

The game environment sets up well for Pollard to see plenty of touches in a game where Dallas has the highest implied team total of the weekend. Admittedly, I don’t see many scenarios where he delivers a slate-breaking performance but he does have some of the best projectable volume of the weekend and a solid chance at finding the end zone. 

Pollard has only produced double-digit fantasy points once in his last four games but he is in a great spot to do that this week and is likely to top his regular season average of 13.1 PPR points per game if Dallas controls this matchup as expected.

Negative Regression

George Pickens

It was an eventful end to the regular season for George Pickens as he went absolutely nuclear against soft pass defenses in Weeks 16 and 17, posting 326 receiving yards and two TDs in the most important weeks of the fantasy season.

He was then held without a catch in a must-win Week 18 matchup against the Ravens but the Steelers were still able to win and secure a playoff spot. The Steelers now travel to Buffalo to take on another solid pass defense. Pittsburgh has by far the lowest implied team total of the weekend which is a major red flag for all of their offensive pieces.

Prior to his explosion in Week 16, Pickens was averaging just 58 receiving yards per game and had only scored three receiving TDs. He does seem to be the biggest beneficiary of the switch to Mason Rudolph at QB, but I’m skeptical that Rudolph will continue to be as effective as he was in his first few starts. 

Not only did Rudolph’s passing numbers fall off significantly when playing tougher competition in Week 18, we have also seen this pattern play out time and again where a backup comes in and is competent for a few games but then declines rapidly as opposing teams get more time to game plan for the new starter.

Oct 8, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) catches a 41 yard pass for a touchdown as Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marion Humphrey (44) applies coverage during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. The catch was the game-winning score as the Steelers won 17-10. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Pickens has shown the ability to create yards after the catch so there is always the chance he can break a big play that allows him to get home, but I don’t expect him to have enough volume to deliver without a mistake by the defense.

To put some additional context around how much he outperformed in Weeks 16 and 17, the PFF Expected Points model projects his usage in those games should have resulted in 126 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs. This shows how unlikely it is that he can replicate the 326 receiving yards and 2 TDs he put up in those games without a massive increase in usage.

It is difficult to expect much from this Steelers offense in Buffalo but Pickens’ volatile production profile makes him even harder to trust than his more consistent teammates.

Nico Collins

No matter what happens this weekend it was an excellent season for the Houston Texans. Hitting on a potential superstar QB in C.J. Stroud and making the playoffs in his rookie season was more than most Texans fans would have dared to dream for. 

The rookie signal-caller has formed a strong connection with his top WR, allowing Nico Collins to put up a rare third-year breakout season with 1,297 receiving yards and 8 TDs. Collins’ production dipped when Stroud missed two games with a concussion but he bounced back nicely over the final two weeks of the regular season, posting 275 receiving yards and a TD across Weeks 17 and 18. 

Those strong performances helped propel the Texans to a division title and a home playoff game this weekend. The bad news is that they now have to take on the NFL’s top pass defense, the Cleveland Browns. 

Nico’s huge game in Week 18 was thanks in large part to a 75-yard TD catch. He hasn’t exactly been known for explosive plays as that was only the fourth game this season where he has recorded a catch of 30+ yards.

I’m buying all the stock in this Houston offense for the long-term but it is going to be an uphill battle for the passing game in this matchup. I do think Houston can win, but they may have to lean on their run game to do so.

With a low probability of creating big plays, Collins will need to find the end zone to deliver a good fantasy performance but the Texans have the fourth-lowest implied team total of Wild Card weekend. Just like with Pickens, a good game isn’t impossible, but there are multiple factors suggesting this could be a down game relative to his recent performances.