Regression Session Week 10. Metcalf's Big Games Are Coming.
Week 9 is behind us and everyone but the luckiest fantasy managers are dealing with injuries and bye-week issues that either force you to confront difficult start/sit dilemmas or scour the waiver wire for weekly fill-ins. It’s a grind, but these are the weeks that set the great fantasy managers apart.
Today we’re going to look at a handful of players who have been on hot and cold streaks that defy their underlying usage trends.
As trade deadlines approach these are some prime players that you may be able to buy low or sell high on as you make the moves to set your team up for a run at a fantasy championship.
Positive Regression Candidates
DK Metcalf, WR - Seahawks
I’m doing something I rarely do in writing about a player back-to-back weeks, but that’s how convinced I am that Metcalf is going to deliver in the near future.
In last week’s piece, I acknowledged a down week against a tough Ravens defense was possible, and DK only managed one catch in that matchup. The catch was good for 50 yards, but fantasy managers were yet again frustrated with Metcalf’s fourth straight game finishing outside the top-24 WRs.
His targets were down a bit as the Seahawks pass offense managed just 13 completions for 157 yards, limiting everyone’s fantasy value. The good news is that Metcalf continues to be used in a downfield role that is likely to produce big games at some point.
Over the last three weeks, Metcalf has averaged 123.3 air yards per game and has gotten six end-zone targets. Unfortunately for him, all three of those matchups came against top-10 pass defenses and he was unable to finish better than the WR32 in any of those games.
Looking ahead, he now has matchups against the Commanders and Rams in his next two games. Those matchups are much more friendly for Metcalf and the Seahawks are going to want to get their offense back on track after scoring just three points in Week 9.
He appears to be fully healthy after not having an injury designation last week and being a full participant in practice to start this week. A fully healthy Metcalf getting downfield targets against the Washington secondary is a recipe for a monster fantasy day.
I expect at least one, if not two, big games from Metcalf in the Seahawks' next two contests.
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Alexander Mattison, RB - Vikings
It hasn’t been a great season for Alexander Mattison from a fantasy football perspective, but he is set up well to deliver for fantasy managers down the stretch.
The outlook was bad for the entire Vikings offense after Kirk Cousins went down in Week 8, but a deadline day trade for Josh Dobbs and a miraculous comeback in Week 9 have the Vikings firmly in playoff contention.
Dobbs is definitely a downgrade from how Cousins was playing, but he will keep the offense moving and support plenty of fantasy production for the players around him.
Oct 1, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Alexander Mattison (2) with the ball as Carolina Panthers safety Sam Franklin Jr. (42) defends in the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Even more important for Mattison’s outlook was Cam Akers’ unfortunate injury that will cost him the rest of the season. Akers had handled 36% of the team's rush attempts over the last three weeks and his absence makes Mattison the clear-cut lead-back for Minnesota.
Dobbs is also more mobile than Cousins was so his threat as a rusher could help boost Mattison’s efficiency as defenses have to account for a QB that can hurt them with his legs. He is a threat to potentially steal rush opportunities at the goal line, but considering that Mattison hasn’t scored a rushing TD so far this season, there really isn’t room to get worse in that department.
In fact, Mattison is the only RB to have more than 90 carries without scoring a rushing TD this season, and he’s all the way up at 122 attempts.
According to the PFF Expected Points model, Mattison’s workload this season should have resulted in around 4 rushing TDs already so the lack of scores on the ground makes him a strong positive regression candidate on its own.
Add in the fact that his role should increase and his rushing efficiency should benefit from Dobbs’ presence, and all signs point to Mattison being a more valuable fantasy asset going forward.
Mattison has finished as a top-12 fantasy RB just twice this season, and one of those performances was last week. He is currently the RB24 in total fantasy points on the season but with the backfield largely to himself, I expect those numbers to improve over the second half of the campaign.
Negative Regression Candidates
Gus Edwards, RB - Ravens
The Ravens' top RB has been on a ridiculous run, scoring 6 rushing TDs over his last three games and finishing as a top-12 RB in each of those weeks.
He should continue to have a valuable role that makes him viable as a weekly start for fantasy purposes, but this stretch as a strong RB1 looks unsustainable. Edwards has never been a pass catcher so his big games rely solely on rushing yards and TDs to put up fantasy points.
This season Edwards has averaged just 53 rushing yards per game and hasn’t sniffed a 100-yard rushing performance so it's TDs that are giving him a weekly ceiling. TDs are obviously volatile and he has run incredibly pure in that category recently.
For comparison, Edwards had just one rushing TD through the first six games of the season before going on this run. The Ravens are one of the league’s better offenses so the TD opportunities will still be there, but we know that plenty of those will go to the passing game as well as to Lamar Jackson on the ground.
Further complicating things for Edwards was the emergence of Keaton Mitchell last week. While I do believe Edwards will retain the lead-back role, the coaching staff is clearly thrilled with what Mitchell brings to the table and he appears to be more significant competition for work than Justice Hill has been.
This combination of looming TD regression as well as increasing competition for touches puts Edwards in a precarious spot. In weeks where he doesn’t score, his floor is extremely low. He proved this from Week 3-6 when he failed to finish better than the RB32 in any of those weeks despite handling 13.25 carries per game during that stretch.
Fantasy managers are likely feeling confident with Edwards in their starting lineup, but due to the way he is scoring his points we need to expect more down weeks going forward. Don’t be afraid to bench Edwards in tough matchups if you have other good options on your team.
Courtland Sutton, WR - Broncos
The Broncos come out of their bye week sitting at 3-5 with a difficult matchup in Buffalo looming.
Before the bye, Courtland Sutton had scored in three straight games and delivered a top-36 fantasy performance in each of those games. He did this despite the Broncos having the fourth fewest expected fantasy points per game at the WR position over this time frame.
Russell Wilson didn’t hit 30 pass attempts in any of those games and has only reached that mark once since Week 3.
This is a direct result of the Broncos' slow pace of play and run-heavy approach in recent weeks. Denver ranks dead last in plays per game this season and has the fourth-lowest situation-neutral pass rate since Week 6.
This offensive environment is a nightmare for the WRs as no player has had more than 6 targets in a game since week 5. The impact of this is more evident in the receiving yard numbers where Sutton has averaged just 38 yards per game over his last five, and only 47.5 per game for the season.
He has managed to cover this up by scoring in six of his eight games so far, including the last three as I mentioned earlier. His 44% share of end zone targets on the season suggests that he is clearly Wilson’s favorite target when in the red zone, but that will only carry him so far if the rest of the receiving stats are lacking.
Looking at the PFF Expected Points model, Sutton’s 6 receiving TDs are nearly double his expected amount (3.4) so far this season, another sign that we shouldn’t expect his scoring streak to continue.
Similar to what I outlined for Gus Edwards above, Sutton’s floor is super low in games where he doesn’t score so fantasy managers planning to rely on him as an every-week starter may want to reconsider and look for options with better underlying usage.
