Regression Session Week 11. Will Davante Adams Bounce Back?

We're now only a few weeks away from the start of the fantasy playoffs. Every win matters from here on out for many teams, whether it's to clinch a playoff spot or to vie for a top seed to secure a first-round bye.

With that in mind, let’s dive into which players are due for positive and negative regression as we get to the final stretch of the fantasy regular season.

Positive Regression Candidates

Davante Adams, WR - Raiders

The Raiders' No. 1 WR has seen truly elite usage this season even if that usage hasn't always resulted in elite fantasy production.

This has especially been true since rookie Aidan O’Connell took over as the starting QB two weeks ago. In these last two games, Davante Adams has earned a ridiculous 40% target share and 60% air yard share, and yet, he's only managed to finish as the fantasy WR49 and WR25, respectively.

Adams has clearly been the favorite target of the rookie QB, and interim head coach Antonio Pierce has made it clear that their star WR will continue to be a focal point of the offense.

Adams hasn’t scored a TD or topped 100 receiving yards in a game since Week 3, but I expect that to change soon. Las Vegas has relied heavily on Josh Jacobs as well, but it's unlikely that they'll be able to run the ball in their upcoming stretch of games as much as they have in recent weeks. Here are the Raiders' next five opponents:

• Week 11: Miami Dolphins
• Week 12: Kansas City Chiefs
• Week 14: Minnesota Vikings
• Week 15: Los Angeles Chargers
• Weeks 16: Kansas City Chiefs

That sure looks like a lot of negative game scripts to me coming up. Assuming that the Raiders will be trailing for the majority of these games, O’Connell will be forced into throwing the ball more than his average of 26 pass attempts over his last two starts, which should then translate to even more targets and fantasy production for Adams.

I expect Adams to see double-digit targets in most of these upcoming games, and I trust a WR of his caliber to convert those targets into fantasy points. The Chiefs are the only defense of that bunch that gives me any cause for concern, but the rest have actually been plus matchups for WRs this season.

The high target share, growing chemistry with his rookie QB, and potential for pass-heavy game scripts have Adams poised to deliver his best stretch of the fantasy season in the next few weeks.

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Aaron Jones, RB - Packers

The year started great for Aaron Jones with an overall RB1 fantasy finish in Week 1 against the Bears. However, due to a combination of injury and overall offensive struggles, Jones has provided very little fantasy value since.

But if we look at his underlying usage, there are really encouraging signs that Jones is back to full strength. Over the past three weeks, he's seen at least 54% of the team's rush attempts and a 13% target share or higher in each game. Jones has eclipsed A.J. Dillon in both categories, a clear sign that he's reclaimed his place atop the Packers' depth chart.

Despite this strong usage, Jones has only delivered a solid fantasy performance in one of those games. With how the Packers' offense has looked for most of the 2023 season, it's not particularly surprising, as Green Bay has struggled to get into scoring position or create explosive plays with Jordan Love under center.

Things may be starting to click for the young Green Bay offense, though, as they've posted their two best yardage totals of the season in their last two games, including 399 total yards on the road in Pittsburgh last week.

Upcoming matchups against the Chargers and Lions will give us a lot more information about whether this recent uptick in offensive output is legit or a fluke. I lean towards this being actual progress as a young team figures some things out, and I expect Jones to be a primary beneficiary now that he appears to be fully healthy.

Negative Regression Candidates

Noah Brown, WR - Texans

Few WRs have been on a better run than Noah Brown over the last two games. His 325 receiving yards over that span trail only CeeDee Lamb, and Brown has finished as top-10 fantasy WR in each of the last two weeks.

This massive spike in production was largely unexpected, as Brown hadn’t finished higher than the WR56 prior to his Week 9 explosion. So what changed?

Well, the simple answer is that Robert Woods and Nico Collins both missed time due to injury in recent weeks, allowing Brown to step into a more prominent role in Houston's offense. To his credit, Brown took advantage of his opportunity and has absolutely crushed it.

While Brown’s performance may and should earn him a larger role going forward, Collins will be back this week, and Brown is dealing with a knee injury. With Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell also commanding targets, the Texans' offense is suddenly full of strong target competition.

Even if healthy, I expect Brown to be no better than the third or fourth option in the Texans' passing game. He may still deliver some occasional big games, especially if C.J. Stroud continues to play at an MVP level even as a rookie, but I wouldn't expect consistent fantasy production from Brown moving forward.

Brian Robinson, RB - Commanders

The Commanders have been an odd team to try to figure out for fantasy purposes. They continue to put up plenty of yards and points, but where the production comes each week from has been very volatile. We’ve seen each of Washington's pass-catchers alternate between huge weeks and total duds.

In the backfield, Brian Robinson has gotten the majority of carries but hasn’t been particularly efficient with a 4.0 average YPC this season. He has managed to deliver for fantasy thanks to some well-timed TDs and big plays, though. This has especially been the case recently, as Robinson now has back-to-back performances as a top-15 fantasy RB over the last two games, including an overall RB1 finish last week.

Still, he's produced these glowing fantasy performances in spite of fairly inefficient touches. In Week 9, Robinson managed just 63 rushing yards on 18 carries but saved his fantasy day with a nine-yard rushing TD. And last week, he got loose for a 51-yard receiving TD, which gave Robinson the first 100-yard receiving game of his career.

We definitely shouldn’t expect Robinson to continue to put up big receiving numbers, as that isn’t his primary skillset. The data also suggests that we shouldn’t expect his strong TD efficiency to continue.

Per the Pro Football Focus (PFF) expected points model, Robinson’s usage over the last three games should have resulted in 0.7 TDs, but he instead managed to score three times in those games. With so much of his fantasy value coming via TDs with the usage not really backing up that production, Robinson stands out as a clear negative regression candidate.

That said, I wouldn't necessarily fade Robinson this week. The Giants's defense has struggled this year, especially against opposing RBs. They've already allowed 11 rushing TDs to RBs in 2023, so Robinson could find the end zone for a fourth week in a row on Sunday. However, with tougher matchups against the Cowboys and Dolphins on the horizon after this week, it's worth exploring some trades to sell high on Robinson if possible.