Regression Session Week 12. Diontae Johnson is primed to bounce back.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone, I hope you’re able to enjoy a day full of good food, family, and football!
There are just a few weeks left in the fantasy football regular season so let's be sure to enjoy it, the offseason will be here before we know it. As usual, I’ll be diving into a handful of players due for positive and negative regression based on their underlying usage trends and other factors.
Positive Regression
Diontae Johnson, WR - Steelers
It’s no secret that the Steelers offense has been putrid this year, but we’re finally in for a change after the team made their first in-season coaching change since 1941 when they fired Matt Canada this week.
I don’t have super high hopes for the Steelers' offense moving forward but I do expect them to improve which should benefit pretty much all the fantasy-relevant players in Pittsburgh. Johnson in particular should benefit as he remains Kenny Pickett’s favorite target with a 27% target share this season.
While any offensive improvement would help boost Johnson’s fantasy value, he is also a positive regression candidate due to his incredible inefficiency over the last couple weeks. Over his past two games, Johnson turned his 12 targets into just three catches for 33 yards. Per the PFF Expected points model, that stat line should have looked more like 7 catches for 106 yards.
Diontae has proven to be an elite target earner with three straight seasons of 140+ targets, so we should expect him to continue to see the most volume from Pickett.
Even if the Steelers offense doesn’t show tangible improvement, Johnson will improve on his 25% catch rate in his last two games and deliver more fantasy-relevant performances.
If Pittsburgh does find a way to sustain more drives and score more points, Johnson has legit upside in PPR formats for his ability to command double-digit targets.
You can get ahead of the curve and target Johnson in Week 12 on Underdog, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below.
Evan Engram, TE - Jaguars
The Jaguars' top TE had a strong start to the year, finishing as the TE7 or better in five of his first six games, but he has really cooled off since then with just one top-10 finish in his last four games. The disappointing production is not a product of declining usage as Engram has had at least a 20% target share in each of those contests.
Despite averaging more than 7 targets per game over that stretch, Engram was held to 45 yards or fewer in three of four contests. He also has by far the most targets (71) among TEs who have yet to score a receiving TD this season. The next most targeted TE without a TD is Tyler Conklin with 44 targets, and he has had Zach Wilson throwing to him most of the season.
So Engram is clearly due for positive TD regression, but there are also signs he could provide more big plays going forward. Engram saw by far his highest aDOT of the season last week and the film grinder community noted the much-improved play calling in that game.
Lastly, Trevor Lawrence appears to finally be healthier than he has been for much of the season. His health should be a rising tide that lifts all boats within this offense, but if they are also figuring things out schematically, look out for this Jaguars offense.
Negative Regression
Courtland Sutton, WR - Broncos
Courtland Sutton has been on a remarkable TD streak, scoring in five straight games and in eight of ten on the season. Sutton is clearly Russell Wilson’s preferred target down in the red zone and his 6’4” frame makes him difficult to defend in that area so a higher-than-average TD rate makes sense, but this level of production is almost surely unsustainable.
The strong TD results have supported Sutton’s fantasy value but there are a few reasons to be concerned about what he will provide to your lineup if those TDs dry up.
Sep 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) runs with the ball against the Miami Dolphins in the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Denver has been one of the lowest passing volume teams this season which has caused Sutton’s target counts to be relatively disappointing. He has seen six or fewer targets in half of his games this season, and has only reached double digit targets twice.
His 60 targets so far this season are tied for 37th most among WRs this season and he has yet to put up a 100-yard receiving performance this year. In other words, a lot of his fantasy value is coming from TDs.
We can’t expect any player to score on a nearly every-week basis, especially one who isn’t earning massive target volume. That TD production looks even less sustainable when we consider that Sutton has only had one end zone target in each game since Week 5 so he’s been running pretty pure on converting those.
These regression calls are usually more than a one-week prediction, but if there was ever a week to call for Sutton’s TD streak to end it would be in this matchup against an elite Browns pass defense.
Cleveland is best in the league in EPA allowed per dropback and has done a great job at limiting fantasy points allowed to opposing passing attacks. Scoring opportunities are likely to be limited this week so I am looking to keep Sutton on my bench in any league I can.
Khalil Shakir, WR - Bills
It has been something of a breakout stretch for Khalil Shakir since Dawson Knox went down in Week 7. In Weeks 1-6 Shakir didn’t have more than one target in any game. From Weeks 8-11 he averaged 4 targets and 72 receiving yards per game.
Shakir finished as a top-25 WR three times in those four games, prompting him to be added from waivers in many fantasy leagues, especially after his WR9 finish last week. A lot of those points came on his 81-yard TD reception, not exactly something we should expect to happen on a regular basis.
He may have solidified his role as the team’s third WR, but I’m not confident that will result in a whole lot of fantasy points down the stretch. Knox will be returning soon and I expect the Bills to return to running a lot more two TE sets which will force Shakir off the field and reduce his snap count on a weekly basis.
Knox won’t return until after the Bills Week 13 bye, so if you did happen to pick up Shakir, I expect this to be his last week of fantasy relevance unless another Buffalo pass catcher gets hurt.
If you don’t need to start Shakir this week (I really hope that isn’t the case for anyone reading) I would suggest cutting bait early and would strongly discourage anyone from holding him through the bye week.
Shakir flashed the upside that makes him a worthwhile dynasty stash, but he is going to be so far down the Bills target tree when they are back to full strength that I don’t expect him to have any value for redraft leagues moving forward.
