Regression Session Week 13. Maintain Faith in Travis Etienne.
There are just a few weeks left in the fantasy football regular season so let's be sure to enjoy it, the offseason will be here before we know it.
As usual, I’ll be diving into a handful of players due for positive and negative regression based on their underlying usage trends and other factors.
Positive Regression
Travis Etienne, RB - Jaguars
It has been a rough few weeks for Travis Etienne after his strong start to the year. In Weeks 1-8 Etienne finished as a top 10 fantasy RB six times, but over the past three games he has failed to finish better than RB20.
Despite the decline in production, his usage has still been pretty strong, averaging 17.6 opportunities (carries + targets) over those three games. Perhaps not too surprisingly, two of those down games came against teams that rank in the top 7 for lowest rushing success rate allowed on the season.
The Jacksonville offense seems to be hitting their stride in recent weeks, averaging 417 yards over their last two games. A more effective and balanced offense should benefit Etienne as it forces the defense to account for multiple weapons and will provide more scoring opportunities.
This is evident in his two expected TDs (per the PFF Expected Points model) over the last three weeks. In reality, Etienne hasn’t scored a rushing TD since Week 7 which was the end of his streak of three consecutive games with multiple rushing TDs.
Looking forward, the Jaguars' next four games feature teams that rank no higher than 12th in rushing success rate allowed, a much friendlier schedule for the ground game than their recent opponents.
With Jacksonville firmly in the mix for the #1 seed in the AFC we can expect them to be going full tilt to secure wins and give themselves the best shot at a bye in the playoffs. That should ensure plenty of opportunities for Etienne and with a softer schedule of rush defenses looming and an offense that seems to be finding its groove, I expect Etienne to start putting up top-10 fantasy finishes again sooner than later.
Jerome Ford, RB - Browns
It’s been a turbulent season for the Cleveland Browns, but despite losing their star RB in Week 2 and getting just six starts out of their franchise QB they remain in playoff contention thanks to an elite defense and strong rushing attack.
Jerome Ford has been the main engine of that rushing attack, with the 14th most rushing yards and 8th most yards after contact among all RBs on the season. Since Week 3 (the first full game after the Nick Chubb injury) Ford has averaged 12.6 carries and 4 targets per game, bordering on bell cow usage.
Ford has turned that usage into solid fantasy production, finishing as a top-24 fantasy RB in eight of nine games since Chubb went down. While that production is decent, he has failed to turn in elite fantasy performance for two reasons: TDs and receiving production.
Nov 19, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford (34) runs the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
Ford has just three rushing TDs this year and hasn’t recorded a receiving TD since Week 2. He’s unlikely to start putting up frequent multi-TD games in this Cleveland offense, but there is a catalyst that I believe will boost his weekly TD upside and reception totals. That catalyst is Joe Flacco.
Since Deshaun Watson was ruled out for the season, Cleveland has bounced between Dorian Thompson-Robinson and PJ Walker at QB. Neither has been particularly effective as they have started 5 games combined and have only gone over 200 passing yards in one of those games.
Cleveland recently promoted Flacco to QB2, and with DTR in the concussion protocol it looks likely we’ll get Flacco at QB this week. While Flacco isn’t the player he once was, he proved capable of keeping an offense on schedule as recently as last season. Across four starts in 2022, Flacco averaged 262.5 passing yards per game.
I expect Flacco to be a boost for the offense overall and likely lock down the starting job for the remainder of the season. In addition to just providing more competent QB play, Flacco is known for his high checkdown rate which should really benefit Ford as the primary passing down back.
If we don’t end up getting Flacco for the rest of the season, Ford is still a positive regression candidate but with less upside.
Negative Regression
Jaylen Warren, RB - Steelers
This one pains me a bit because I LOVE the matchup against the Cardinals this week and wouldn’t be surprised if we see Warren put up a monster performance similar to what we saw from Kyren Williams do to this defense last week.
That being said, there is no denying that Jaylen Warren has been outperforming his usage in recent weeks. Despite being in a clear committee situation with Najee Harris, Warren has still put up the fourth most points at the RB position over the last four weeks. He’s been able to consistently make big plays and was Pittsburgh’s best offensive weapon for the majority of the season.
With the offense undergoing changes following the firing of Matt Canada, I’m generally excited for what the Steelers offense will look like for the rest of the season. However, I think the benefits will primarily be found in the passing game and while that can create more scoring opportunities for the RBs, those are more likely to go to Harris than Warren.
Looking at the PFF Expected Points model, Warren has massively outproduced expectations over the last four games. He’s put up 367 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs in that stretch but his workload should have resulted in closer to 211 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing TDs.
Warren is an explosive player so he’s certainly capable of providing spike weeks and outperforming what his usage suggests, but that degree of outperformance is likely unsustainable.
As I mentioned at the start of this section, I’m still very excited to start Warren this week and expect him to put up a few big plays in this matchup. Moving beyond this week and into the fantasy playoffs I think it will be tougher for Warren to deliver consistently great fantasy production due to his limited usage and the fact that the offense appears more capable of generating explosive plays from multiple players rather than just Warren.
George Kittle, TE - 49ers
We finally saw a down week from George Kittle in Week 12 after he had been dominating for most of the last two months. From Weeks 5-11 Kittle averaged 18.3 PPR points per game and logged five weeks as a top-5 fantasy TE.
Kittle has long been known for his spike week potential, but that huge weekly upside comes with plenty of dud games as well. We saw that downside in Week 12 when he managed just 19 receiving yards.
It’s no coincidence that Kittle’s worst game in a number of weeks came at the same time as Deebo Samuel’s largest workload since Week 6, which was also a down week for Kittle.
Samuel was back over a 30% target share while Kittle dropped to an 18% target share in Week 12, below his season average of 22%.
As great as the San Francisco offense is, it is nearly impossible to support four great fantasy assets on a weekly basis. There will almost always be one or two guys who disappoint, but predicting who that will be each week is extremely difficult.
With San Francisco’s primary weapons back to full health, it looks unlikely that Kittle will be able to continue the consistent production we saw in Weeks 5-11. You’re still going to want to start him each week because few other TEs can match his weekly ceiling, but the output is going to be much more volatile moving forward.
