Regression Session Week 14. Javonte Williams' Time is Coming.
The final week of the fantasy football regular season is here… where does the time go?
It’s been a season full of ups and downs, not to mention enough injuries to last a decade. If you’re still reading fantasy football content at this time of year, hopefully, you have at least one team with a legitimate shot at making a championship run.
Today, we’ll be examining a handful of players who are poised for regression, both positive and negative, as we enter the home stretch of the season.
Buckle up everyone, let’s go win some fantasy championships.
Positive Regression
Javonte Williams, RB - Broncos
It was understandably a slow start to the season for Javonte Williams who was coming off of a multi-ligament knee injury he suffered last season. Through Week 6 of this season, Javonte had not logged a game with more than 13 rushing attempts but his role has steadily grown as the season has progressed.
From Week 8 - Week 13, he averaged 18 carries per contest and even had two games above 20 carries. This increased rushing workload plus the decent receiving role he has held all season should place Williams among the most valuable RB roles in the league, but it hasn’t translated to fantasy points.
Javonte has finished better than the RB20 just twice all season, so his solid usage has been of little comfort to fantasy managers waiting for his opportunities to yield points. The main culprit behind his disappointing outputs is a lack of TDs.
Williams has not scored a rushing TD all season. He has scored twice as a receiver, but he’s one of the larger outliers when it comes to TDs on the ground. For context, there are 39 RBs with at least 100 rush attempts on the season, 37 of them having scored rushing TDs this season. He’s also well above that 100-carry threshold at 153 rush attempts so far this season.
So why is he struggling to get into the end zone? The simple answer is opportunities.
The Broncos have been one of the pass-heaviest teams inside the 5-yard line this season which has limited the number of scoring opportunities for their RBs. No Broncos running back has more than two attempts inside the five this season so it isn’t that huge of a surprise that this backfield has accounted for just two rushing TDs all season.
Looking forward to Denver's remaining games, they get to face a soft Chargers run defense twice (Weeks 14 & 17) and also have a game against a Lions defense that ranks 14th in rushing success rate allowed which is more of a neutral matchup.
The one tough matchup for the ground game comes in Week 16 against a Patriots defense that ranks 1st in rushing success rate allowed. While that is unlikely to be a career day for Williams, the Patriots offense is among the worst in the league which should result in a positive game script where Javonte can see plenty of touches and get there on volume.
With a favorable schedule ahead and a major workload on tap for Williams, I’m not only expecting him to get his first rushing TD of the season but also to post some of his best fantasy performances in this final stretch of games.
You can also target Williams in Pick'em formats on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!
Josh Downs, WR - Colts
I always get a little bit nervous calling for positive regression on a player who is clearly battling through injury, but there are enough positive signs for me to believe Josh Downs’ season will end on a higher note than his recent performances suggest.
Downs ran just 5 routes in Week 9 after suffering a knee injury against the Panthers. He managed to play the following week in the Colts game in Germany, but only ran 12 routes in that contest.
After a bye in Week 11, Downs has gotten closer to a full workload, running 36 and 37 routes in the Colts' next two games. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, the routes haven’t turned into fantasy points, despite earning 17 targets across those two most recent games.
Those 17 targets resulted in just 57 scoreless receiving yards and the rookie finished as the WR38 and WR50 in those weeks. However, I am only willing to put part of the blame on him as just 10 of those 17 targets were deemed catchable.
As we enter the final stretch of the season I’m optimistic that Downs will bounce back and start to put up strong fantasy performances again. He has shown the ability to earn targets even while battling through this injury, and the Indy offense is legit good having scored at least 27 points in five of their last six games.
Here are the Colts next four opponents and where they rank in drop back EPA allowed per play.
- Week 14: Bengals - 24th in drop back EPA allowed per play
- Week 15: Steelers - 7th
- Week 16: Falcons - 19th
- Week 17: Raiders - 16th
Nov 26, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (1) looks to run around Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis III (24) during the second quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
As you can see, the schedule isn’t too daunting when it comes to pass defense, and three of these four contests will be played in a dome, a real benefit at this time of year.
I’ll be the first to admit that this call is dependent on Downs continuing to recover from his knee injury, but I’ve seen enough from the rookie this season that assuming he is relatively healthy (at least as healthy as any NFL player can be at this point) his talent will win out and we will see multiple top-24 WR performances in this last stretch of games.
Negative Regression
DK Metcalf, WR - Seahawks
If you’ve been reading this article throughout the season you know that TDs are often at the heart of regression, both positive and negative. D.K. Metcalf has been a prime example of that in 2023.
I wrote about him ahead of Week 10 as a positive regression candidate and he delivered a solid game against the Commanders to deliver on that. In the three games since then he has scored four times, including a three TD performance in Week 13 that propelled him to a WR1 finish for the week.
This hot stretch has now flipped Metcalf from a positive regression candidate to a negative regression candidate. The good news for Metcalf managers is that his underlying usage is strong enough to still warrant a start every week, it’s just the TD bonanza we have seen in recent weeks that is unsustainable.
Metcalf has recorded 100+ air yards in each of his last four games so there are plenty of points to be had for the talented Seattle WR, but I would be betting against another blowup game, especially in Week 14.
The Seahawks have to travel to San Francisco to take on a 49ers defense that ranks 3rd best in the NFL for dropback EPA allowed per play. Even more discouraging is the fact that we saw this exact matchup just two weeks ago in Seattle, and the 49ers held Metcalf to just 3 catches for 32 yards, his lowest receiving yardage total of the season.
After that, Metcalf will get softer matchups against the Eagles and Titans secondaries but will have a tough task during fantasy championship week against the Steelers.
He’ll be in the WR2 discussion on a weekly basis but with tough matchups in two key weeks for fantasy managers I am tempering expectations for Metcalf down the stretch.
David Montgomery, RB - Lions
Continuing the theme of TD regression candidates, David Montgomery has been on a remarkable scoring streak. He has scored in four straight games and in eight of the nine games he has appeared in so far this season.
We saw what Jamaal Williams did in this role last season so it is reasonable to have a higher-than-normal TD expectation for the Lions goal line back, but there are a couple of reasons to be skeptical about that streak continuing through the final handful of games this season.
The first reason is the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs who has commanded a larger role in the offense as the season has progressed thanks to his explosive playmaking ability. Gibbs isn’t going to be an every-down back for the Lions this season so I expect Montgomery to still get a decent workload, but the more worrying trend is inside the 5-yard line.
Since Week 10, Gibbs and Montgomery both have four carries inside the 5-yard line. For comparison, that split was 8-1 in Montgomery’s favor through the first nine weeks of the season despite Monty missing multiple games due to injury.
If the goal line opportunities are going to split more evenly between the two, it is going to be much more difficult for Montgomery to deliver big fantasy days due to his lesser role in the passing game and lack of explosive plays.
Nov 23, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5) tries to keep his balance to gain extra yardage against the Green Bay Packers in the fourth quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
To make matters worse, their schedule isn’t great for RBs down the stretch. The Lions next four games come against the Bears, Broncos, Vikings, and Cowboys. Full-season stats will paint one picture that those matchups aren’t particularly difficult, but if we shorten the time frame to just look at how those defenses have played since Week 4 (the week after the Broncos got wrecked by Miami’s RBs) it tells a different story.
Since Week 4, all four of those defenses rank in the top 11 for rush EPA allowed per play, and this week’s opponent (the Bears) ranks first.
This somewhat difficult schedule paired with the emergence of Gibbs make it easy to see a scenario in which some of Montgomery’s worst games come at the most important time of the season for fantasy managers.
