Regression Session Week 15. Bank on a Zack Moss Bounce Back.
It’s finally here. We spent all summer and fall grinding to make the fantasy playoffs and now that time has arrived. Your team will need to be at the top of its game over the next three weeks to secure bragging rights for the next 12 months.
With critical start/sit decisions looming for many managers, let’s dive into the top positive and negative regression candidates heading into Week 15.
Positive Regression
Zack Moss
It’s no secret that the Colts are willing to give their lead RB a massive workload. They have shown it time and again with both Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor this season.
The bad news for Moss managers is that despite JT missing the last two games and Moss inheriting that lead back workload, it has only resulted in RB27 and RB32 finishes in half PPR scoring.
Moss saw 22 and 21 opportunities in those games, including a season-high 8 targets last week in a trailing game script against the Bengals. In his first four games of the season (Weeks 2-5) Moss saw a similar workload but was able to turn in three top-10 RB finishes in those four games.
As long as JT remains out, Moss should be in for a large workload. This week he gets to take on a Steelers defense that has given up plenty of points to the RB position this season. We even saw the blueprint last week when they were torched by Ezekiel Elliot for 140 scrimmage yards and a TD. Elliot wasn’t particularly efficient but he got 30 opportunities and compiled his way to a strong fantasy performance. If this version of Zeke can do it, Moss can as well.
If you need a bit more evidence, go back one extra week to James Conner’s 25-105-2 stat line on the ground against the Steelers in Week 13.
On the season, Moss has averaged 4.3 YPC but over the last two weeks he has been at just 2.4 YPC. He also hasn’t scored since Week 8.
Something has to give here and the Colts have shown no signs that they want to give another RB a crack at the job (until Taylor is back of course) so I believe Moss will continue to get all the work and is likely to be more efficient than he has been over the last two weeks.
I’m not scared to start Moss in the first round of the fantasy playoffs and the workload suggests he has a decent shot at finding the end zone in Week 15.
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Zay Jones
The Jaguars have been one of the more interesting teams to try to decipher in recent weeks as they lost Christian Kirk for at least the rest of the regular season and looked like they were going to lose Trevor Lawrence for multiple weeks after his injury in Week 13.
Lawrence was somehow able to play in Week 14, and although he did throw three interceptions, he attempted 50 passes and was able to pass for 257 yards and three TDs as well. He may not be fully healthy, but he is healthy enough that we don’t need to lower the projections for his pass-catchers.
Kirk got hurt early in Week 13 so the Jags have essentially played two full games without him. In those two games, Zay Jones has seen 21 targets for a whopping 362 air yards. That’s legit WR1 usage. I don’t necessarily expect that to be an every week occurrence, but Jones is clearly going to play a bigger role in the offense with Kirk out.
Sep 10, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Zay Jones (7) celebrates his touchdown in the second quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
He hasn’t quite delivered on that spike in usage, totaling just 107 receiving yards with no TDs across those two games.
Looking ahead, the Jaguars are firmly in the playoff picture but will need to win a few games to fend off the Colts and Texans who are just one game behind in the division. Their next three matchups come against the Ravens, Bucs, and Panthers.
The Ravens have been one of the better pass defenses on the season but they haven’t been as strong in recent weeks and did give up 297 passing yards and 3 TDs to Matthew Stafford and the Rams last week. The game has a solid 42.5 point total and I expect the Ravens to put up points so there is a strong possibility the Jaguars have to throw to keep up.
Carolina and Tampa Bay are softer matchups where the Jaguars should have the opportunity to put up plenty of points.
I expect Jones to maintain something close to the 25% target share he has seen in the last two weeks and probabilities suggest he will deliver a big fantasy performance or two during that stretch as his efficiency regresses back towards his long-term averages.
Negative Regression
D.J. Moore
It’s been a bit of an up-and-down season for the Bears top WR. He posted three 100+ yard games in the first five weeks of the season, including that legendary 230-yard and 3 TD performance in Week 5.
In Weeks 6-10, he failed to hit 60 receiving yards or score a TD in any game. His best fantasy finish in that stretch was as the WR28 in Week 7.
Lately, Moore has been on a hot streak again averaging 92.6 receiving yards per game and scoring twice in his last three games. No doubt this helped propel some D.J. Moore teams into the playoffs.
But now Moore managers have quite a conundrum on their hands. The Bears travel to Cleveland to take on the NFL’s best pass defense. The Browns are best in the league by a wide margin when it comes to EPA allowed per drop back and have given up the second fewest points to WRs this season.
I’m worried about Justin Field’s ability to move the ball against this defense and Moore’s fantasy output is reliant on his QB being able to handle pressure and distribute the ball to his playmakers.
Moore is likely to lead the team in targets so there is still some upside if he manages to break a big play but this matchup suggests that is unlikely. Add in the fact that the current forecast calls for rain in Cleveland on Sunday and everything is aligning for an end to Moore’s recent run of big games.
Saquon Barkley
As much as I’m enjoying the Tommy DeVito storyline, it feels like a classic example of a player/team catching lightning in a bottle for a short period of time before a larger sample size reveals that the performance wasn’t sustainable.
I definitely wouldn’t mind being wrong but I’m expecting the other shoe to drop at some point. When it does, Saquon Barkley will likely feel the effects as much as anyone.
As a direct result of DeVito’s strong play, Barkley has been able to turn in multiple TDs in two of his last three games. He finished as the RB1 in half PPR scoring in both of those weeks.
Dec 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs the ball against Green Bay Packers safety Darnell Savage (26) during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The TD efficiency has masked some trends that could come back to bite Barkley managers. Most notably, Barkley’s pass game usage hasn’t been all that strong since DeVito took over as the starter. Yes, he did beat the Commanders for two receiving TDs, but Washington is one of the worst defenses in the league so I’m not extrapolating that performance to other matchups.
In the three other games that DeVito has started, Barkley has totaled just 5 catches for 16 yards and no receiving scores. He didn’t have fewer than 3 receptions in any game prior to DeVito taking over as the starter.
Of course, passing game usage isn’t everything for Barkley, he’ll see plenty of carries as well. However, if the DeVito party comes crashing down it will make things much more difficult for Barkley and the rushing attack.
The Giants next two games are on the road against New Orleans and Philadelphia, definitely not easy environments for a rookie QB. The Saints have been a solid run defense all season and rank in the top-10 for both rush EPA allowed per play and rushing success rate allowed. They may not be elite, but they won’t make things easy on New York.
Even if DeVito doesn’t have a horrendous game, there is a path to Barkley putting up a disappointing day if his limited usage in the passing game continues. A stat line of something like 20 carries for 80 yards and one catch for five yards could result in a single-digit fantasy performance if he fails to score.
