Regression Session Week 17. Is Aaron Jones back to RB1 Status?
It’s finally here. Championship week is upon us and only one final opponent stands between you and fantasy football glory.
We’ve spent all season analyzing usage trends and identifying players running too hot or too cold who were bound for regression. Let’s dive into the data one more time and examine the top positive and negative regression candidates heading into Week 17.
Positive Regression
Aaron Jones, RB - Packers
Aaron Jones returned from injury right when AJ Dillon went down with a broken thumb which allowed Jones to step right back in as the featured RB in the Packers' last two games. Jones has gotten 41 opportunities in those two games, a true RB1 workload. That workload hasn’t yielded RB1 results however as Jones finished as the RB23 and RB16 in half PPR scoring.
Dillon returned to the lineup in Week 16 but played just 12 snaps and handled 7 touches. He seems to still be working his way back to full health and I expect Jones to handle the majority of touches again in Week 17. He will get to take on a Minnesota Vikings defense that has the 5th worst rush EPA allowed per play over the last four weeks.
Another factor working in Jones’ favor is the fact that the Packers WR room has been decimated by injuries. Christian Watson and Jayden Reed both missed last week and are trending towards being truly questionable again this week. Dontayvion Wicks got injured during their game on Sunday as well so the offense may flow through Jones by necessity if Green Bay ends up without multiple weapons against Minnesota.
Jones should also be able to get there in any game script thanks to his strong passing game usage and potential to see 15+ carries if he is having success on the ground. The Packers are playing to stay alive in the playoff picture so there is really no benefit to holding anything back at this point.
Jones is likely to see an RB1-caliber workload yet again and has a good shot to finally deliver a fantasy performance in line with that usage.
You can bank on positive regression for Jones and draft him on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE:
Travis Kelce, TE - Chiefs
There is no way around it, Travis Kelce hasn’t quite looked the same this year. Although it is more fun to try to link his struggles on the field to his relationship status, the reality is that his age and the knee injury that caused him to miss Week 1 are the real culprits.
Despite the struggles, he has been on the field every week since the opener and has been above an 80% route participation mark in every game since Week 8. For all intents and purposes, his role hasn’t been limited even if the production has.
Dec 10, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs with the ball during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
It’s no coincidence that the Kansas City offense as a whole has struggled in 2023 with their star TE seemingly not at full strength.
For all the complaints about his performance so far, Kelce still leads the TE position in fantasy points per game this season and has had 7 or more targets in five of his last six games. He may not be head and shoulders above the rest of the position, but he is still one of the elite options.
Other than Rashee Rice, the Chiefs have struggled to find other weapons for Patrick Mahomes to throw to. Last year’s late-season hero Jerick McKinnon is on IR and the rest of the receiving corps has more lowlights than highlights this year. The reinforcements are nowhere to be found.
As a result, I expect Kelce to get all the work he can handle over the last few weeks and into the playoffs. For fantasy managers, Week 17 is really all that matters though and Kelce has a good enough matchup to pay off on that usage right away.
The Bengals have given up the second most points to the TE position this season and the Chiefs will no doubt want to take advantage as they try to bounce back from last week’s loss.
Negative Regression
Demarcus Robinson, WR - Rams
I was not expecting Demarcus Robinson to be fantasy-relevant at any point this season, but to his credit, he has reeled off four straight games as a top-24 fantasy WR thanks to his four-game scoring streak.
Robinson has been in the league since 2016 but has never topped 500 receiving yards in a season and his four TDs this season have tied his previous career high. To put it simply, Robinson is not that guy.
Dec 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (15) carries the ball against Washington Commanders cornerback Nick Whiteside II (37) in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
I do believe Robinson has secured the number three WR role in the Rams offense for the remainder of the season, but his hot stretch has coincided with missed games for both Tyler Higbee and Tutu Atwell. Although neither player is an elite target earner, their absence helped consolidate targets for the top three pass catchers which played a role in Robinson running hot on TDs.
Robinson does have 7 end zone targets in his last four games so there is clearly something the Rams like about him down in that part of the field, but even with that role, averaging a TD per game is unsustainable and makes him one of the top negative regression candidates heading into Week 17.
DK Metcalf, WR - Seahawks
Like Robinson, DK Metcalf has been running unsustainably hot on TDs in recent weeks, scoring five times in his last four games. These scores have propped up his fantasy value during a stretch where his underlying usage has actually fallen off a bit.
In Week 13, Metcalf finished as the overall WR1 on the back of 134 yards and 3 receiving TDs. In the three games since then, he hasn’t hit a 20% target share and has been held under 60 yards in two of those games.
He has scored twice in those three games which has kept him as a low-level WR2 in each of those matchups. He hasn’t cratered fantasy teams but managers need to be wary of his declining usage in recent weeks.
Metcalf has actually averaged the third most targets (behind Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba) over the Seahawks last four games and hasn’t had double digit targets since Week 10. The Seahawks now get to take on a Steelers offense with the third-lowest neutral pass rate over the last four weeks.
We know Seattle is willing to pound the rock so this game is a real danger to turn into a slow paced battle where neither team ends up having to throw much. If Metcalf remains the third option and Seattle doesn’t end up throwing much, that is the perfect recipe for a disappointing fantasy performance when it matters most.
