With the holidays over and fantasy championships secured now is a great time to reflect on how the NFL season played out as we start to think ahead to 2024. There were plenty of breakout stars and unbelievable storylines throughout the year but it is important to remember that one season is still a relatively small sample size.
Think back just one year to when players like Josh Jacobs and Jamaal Williams were coming off of career-best performances that made them some of the most valuable players in fantasy. While recent performance is an important data point, we have to look below the surface at usage and efficiency to understand which performances are sustainable and which aren’t.
With that in mind, let’s take a look back at the full 2023 season to see which players are primed for positive and negative regression as we move into the 2024 offseason.
Positive Regression
Garrett Wilson, WR - Jets
It’s a bit depressing to think about what this season could have been for Garrett Wilson if Aaron Rodgers never got hurt. Wilson accumulated the third most targets (159) and ninth most air yards (1,677) in the NFL season. That level of usage for a player of Wilson’s talent should have yielded an elite WR1 season but he managed to finish as the overall WR30 and the WR37 in half PPR points per game. Any way you look at it, this season has to be viewed as a disappointment.
I put very little blame on Wilson (Garrett that is, plenty of blame for Zach Wilson) for his struggles this season as he has had to deal with a rotating cast of QBs who all struggled to keep the offense on schedule. Only 67% of the passes thrown his way were deemed catchable and his aDOT dipped from last year, putting even more on Wilson’s shoulders to make plays after the catch.
Despite the poor QB play, Wilson still managed to top 1,000 receiving and flashed his electric playmaking ability throughout the season. We now have even more evidence of the truly elite talent that Wilson has so the path to elite fantasy production seems clear. Any meaningful upgrade to his QB play should unlock the type of monster year Wilson is capable of.
With Aaron Rodgers slated to return next season we should be willing to run it back with Wilson as an early second-round pick in fantasy drafts, but history suggests his ADP will probably fall from where it was last season.
Unless the Jets make another big offseason move that adds real target competition for Wilson, he will be one of the top positive regression candidates heading into next season.
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Josh Jacobs, RB - Raiders
In the intro, I mentioned that Josh Jacobs was a negative regression candidate coming out of the 2022 season. Just one year later he is now a positive regression candidate following a relatively disappointing season that saw him get plenty of work, but fail to deliver the same elite production he provided to fantasy managers the year before.
I should note that this positive regression prediction is based on the assumption that the offseason will play out one of two ways.
- Antonio Pierce is named the Raiders Head Coach and Jacobs re-signs with Las Vegas.
- Jacobs gets a significant contract to be the feature back for a new team.
As long as one of those two scenarios plays out I am confident that Jacobs will get the volume needed to bounce back for fantasy purposes. Pierce has made it clear he wants to build the offense around Jacobs and any team that gives him a big contract will have the same mindset.
Nov 26, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8) is pursued by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Joshua Williams (2) on a 63-yard touchdown run in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
After Pierce took over as HC, Jacobs averaged nearly 22 opportunities per game and delivered two top-10 RB finishes in those five games. He was much more efficient after Pierce took over as well, a positive sign that he hasn’t just declined as a player after a few years of handling a large workload.
Jacobs will be 26 entering next season so he is nearing the age cliff for RBs, but should have a couple of productive seasons left. After posting career lows in yards per carry, yards after contact per attempt, and rushing TDs this year he will likely be overlooked in drafts for 2024 but is a strong candidate to bounce back on the efficiency front.
Negative Regression
Raheem Mostert, RB - Dolphins
It was an incredible 2023 season for the Dolphins' top RB as he has punched in 18 rushing TDs, four more than any other RB so far this season. He has more games with multiple rushing TDs (6) than games with no rushing TDs (4). Even more impressively, Raheem Mostert has more total TDs this season (21) than he had in his eight previous NFL seasons combined (19).
Mostert benefitted from playing in one of the NFL’s best offenses, but I don’t want to diminish his role in how great of a 2023 campaign he had. He finished fifth in yards after contact per attempt and ranked third missed tackles forced among RBs. Those are elite numbers that are largely independent of his offensive environment.
Mostert also logged the ninth-fastest speed of any ball carrier this season, another strong sign that his abilities haven’t declined much, if at all.
Dec 17, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) breaks the tackle of New York Jets defensive end Jalyn Holmes (97) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
As great of a year as it has been, there are several factors working against Mostert heading into next season. To start, he will be a 32-year-old RB coming off of two consecutive seasons where he had a significant workload.
It also remains to be seen whether he will even be back with the Dolphins next year. I think that is the most likely outcome, but Miami could get out of his contract if they wanted to. The more likely threat to Mostert’s fantasy value is the rise of more backfield competition.
De’Von Achane flashed some electric playmaking ability this season and managed to be even more efficient on his touches than Mostert was. Achane has only appeared in 10 games this season and he played single-digit snaps in two of those contests. While he isn’t ever going to be a workhorse, Achane could easily step into a larger role for the Dolphins next year.
It also wouldn’t be a shock to see Miami continue to add RB depth in the draft or free agency as they look to contend for a Super Bowl in 2024.
On top of the potential for more RB competition, it will also be incredibly difficult for Mostert to run as hot on TD efficiency next season. According to the PFF Expected Points model, Mostert’s workload this season should have resulted in about 13 total TDs. We love that elite level of usage, but it illustrates just how much he overperformed expectations in the TD department.
This combination of factors: age, increased backfield competition, and worse TD efficiency are all lining up to make it very unlikely that Mostert can come close to replicating his 2023 output next season.
Gus Edwards, RB - Ravens
This looks like a trap for fantasy football managers who only look back on full-season finishes without considering context or other underlying data points. Gus Edwards is currently the RB19 on the season in half PPR scoring which will look like a great finish for anyone looking back on the season months from now.
However, his strong fantasy production was primarily due to his TD efficiency which is something we won’t want to bank on in future years. Touchdowns are notoriously volatile and difficult to predict.
Edwards needed an injury to J.K. Dobbins in front of him and a role that gave him the most (or at least tied for the most) carries inside the five-yard line of any player this season despite only ranking 22nd in total rushing attempts.
Going forward into 2024, there is no guarantee Edwards will retain anything close to the role he had this season. He will be a free agent this offseason and the Ravens are likely to look for a significant upgrade at the position now that Dobbins’ future is so uncertain. If Edwards signs basically anywhere else it will be a major downgrade in terms of the offense he is playing in and he isn’t the caliber of player who is going to get a deal to be a feature back. At best he would be in a committee where he will need injuries around him to step into a larger role.
The market for soon-to-be 29-year-old RBs isn’t exactly hot so Edwards is a long shot to be projected for significant volume heading into the season.
In addition to the uncertainty around his role, Edwards also showed some worrying signs of decline in his play as his yards per carry (4.1) and yards after contact per attempt (2.69) are on track to be career lows by a wide margin. This declining efficiency should be a big red flag for fantasy managers.
As we head into the NFL playoffs, the Ravens are one of the Super Bowl favorites and I expect Edwards to be a big part of their playoff campaign which will keep him top of mind for fantasy managers. Even if Gus delivers in the playoffs I will be avoiding the offseason hype that comes with a strong postseason performance because the underlying data suggests he is unlikely to provide much fantasy value next season.
