Regression Session Week 2. Tee Higgins is Primed to Bounce Back.

Week 1 has come and gone and we finally have data to dig into. Football season is all the way back.

Last week I wrote about season-long regression candidates but now it’s time to dig into the performances from the opening week and see who is primed for positive or negative regression based on their usage vs fantasy output.

Positive Regression

Tee Higgins, WR - Bengals

Nothing screams positive regression quite like a talented player having zero catches despite earning eight targets and 145 air yards on the week. This may be the most obvious positive regression candidate we have all season.

Higgins has averaged nearly five receptions for 65 yards per game throughout his career with 19 TDs to boot. He has proven himself as a valuable fantasy asset, finishing as the WR28, WR24, and WR18 in his first three seasons. 

Higgins is one of the best secondary passing options across the league and we have no reason to think he won’t continue to be a huge part of the Cincinnati offense this year. His usage was strong in Week 1, with 100% route participation and a 21% target per route run rate.

I’m not concerned about Higgins. This was one of the biggest outlier performances of the opening week as Joe Burrow only threw for 82 yards. That isn’t going to happen very often. 

We saw how this movie played out last year with DeVonta Smith, another talented young receiver who put up a goose egg in Week 1 on a great offense. Smith went on to catch 95 passes for 1,196 yards and 7 scores in 2022. So I would say that dud to open the season didn’t end up holding him back. 

I expect a similar situation for Higgins who should bounce back along with the rest of the Bengals offense real soon. 

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Jake Ferguson, TE - Cowboys

The TE position was nightmare fuel for fantasy managers in Week 1 with players like Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce sitting out while other high-end options like Dallas Goedert, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, and George Kittle fell flat and finished as the TE18 or worse in PPR scoring.

Amidst all that carnage, there was a very encouraging performance that flew under the radar. Jake Ferguson was heavily involved in the Cowboys offense, seeing a 26% target share and accounting for 100% of the end zone targets in Week 1.

This usage did not convert into fantasy production as he only put up 3.1 PPR points, but his role was among the most valuable at the position.

The expected fantasy points are a bit inflated by all the end zone targets, but it was very encouraging to see Ferguson be featured as a big part of the team’s plan near the goal line. And we have seen Dak Prescott support strong TE production over the years including a TE3 finish for Dalton Schultz back in 2021.

Unless you have one of the truly elite guys, the TE position is all about finding TDs and Ferguson has a good shot to find the end zone regularly with Prescott as his QB. 

If you need help at the position he would be a prime waiver add. If he’s not available, Ferguson makes the perfect throw-in at the end of a trade offer that your league mate won’t mind parting with (until he pops up with a multi-TD game at some point this season, of course).

Negative Regression

Romeo Doubs, WR - Packers

The Packers' second-year WR got off to a fast start against a suspect Bears defense in Week 1. With Christian Watson out of the lineup Doubs took full advantage by scoring two TDs and finishing as the WR13 in PPR scoring. 

I was in on this Packers offense all summer and do think Doubs will continue to provide some occasional spike weeks tied to TDs. However, I also really like the other receiving options in Green Bay (when they’re fully healthy, that is). 

Christian Watson is the top receiver and while Doubs is the second guy in the receiving corps for now, both Aaron Jones and Luke Musgrave will be heavily involved in this passing game as evidenced by their combined 30% target share in Week 1.

I also like Jayden Reed and think he can push Doubs for snaps and targets as the season progresses. All of this is to say that I think Doubs is facing fierce target competition inside of an offense that checked in with the third-lowest situation neutral pass rate in Week 1.

This situation will make it tough for Doubs to maintain consistent fantasy value and will make him a TD-dependent flex play most weeks when Jordan Love has his full complement of weapons available.

Jakobi Meyers, WR - Raiders

I really hate to kick a guy while he’s down. Meyers was awesome in Week 1 until suffering a concussion on a brutal hit, so I do feel for the man. But this negative regression call has nothing to do with the injury and will still apply when he returns to full health (hopefully sooner than later). 

Meyers’ 29.1 PPR points were good for the overall WR3 in Week 1 and his usage was right there with Davante Adams in terms of targets and air yards. 

The real shocker, however, was that Meyers commanded 67% of the end zone targets and converted those into two scores. Pretty impressive for a receiver who had just eight career TDs across four seasons coming into 2023. Adding the two from Week 1, Meyers now stands at 10 TDs through 61 career games.

For comparison, Adams has scored 10+ TDs in six separate seasons so far. With no real evidence that Adams is in decline, I fully expect him to be the engine of the Raiders passing game this year. 

Sep 10, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (16) pulls in a touchdown past Denver Broncos cornerback Damarri Mathis (27) in the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

To be clear, Meyers’ two TD per season average was too low for a player of his talent, but he still doesn’t profile as someone likely to rack up a ton of scores. At best, I expect him to be the third option in the red zone for the Raiders behind Adams and Josh Jacobs. 

In an offense that is likely to top out at league average with Jimmy Garoppolo under center it is difficult to see a path for Meyers to put up 20+ fantasy points on a regular basis. The Week 2 Fantasy Life projections have Meyers for just over 10 points in full PPR scoring (if he plays).

These projections feel much closer to what we can expect most weeks and this puts Meyers in the WR3/flex conversation on a regular basis.