With two weeks of data to look back on we can start to get a feel for usage trends and efficiency.
This is a key point in the season as the next few weeks are when we need to decide which players we need to adjust our priors on and which ones have simply been running hot or cold.
Normally I bring you two positive and two negative regression candidates but I’m feeling extra positive this week so I’ve got three positive regression candidates and just one negative this time around.
Positive Regression
Dameon Pierce, RB - Texans
It’s been a slow start to the year for the Texans running game, but the offensive line has been decimated by injuries and they have been trailing for most of their first two contests, resulting in C.J. Stroud attempting more than 40 passes in both games.
This has put Pierce in a tough spot, having to quite literally create everything for himself. The man has more yards after contact (70) than rushing yards (69) this season which honestly makes me sad if I think about it for too long.
The Texans defense may not improve much this season, but the offensive line is getting healthier which should directly benefit Pierce.
Sep 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce (31) carries the ball against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
He managed 4.3 YPC and averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring last season so I expect that to be his floor in a better offense this year.
Stroud looks like the real deal, ranking fourth in passing yards after two weeks with no interceptions to his name, so I’m pretty confident he will continue to elevate the offense to a level above what we have seen in recent years.
A better offense will lead to more scoring opportunities and Pierce is by far the most talented back on the team so I expect him to get the majority of those high value opportunities.
The biggest concern for Pierce is simply the fact that he is stuck in an ugly backfield committee. The Texans have declined to give him the vast majority of the work to this point, preferring to utilize multiple backs in specific roles.
The good news for Pierce is that his competition for touches has performed even worse than he has. His 2.7 YPC is dismal, there’s no way around it, but through two weeks the other RBs on the team have managed just 2.5 YPC on their attempts so far.
Following their matchup with the Jaguars this week, the Texans next five opponents are the Steelers, Falcons, Saints, Panthers, and Buccaneers.
This stretch of games should allow the Texans offense to keep a more balanced approach that features Pierce more prominently.
Add in the fact that the team is getting next to nothing from their other backs and the recipe is there for Pierce to take over a larger share of the work in an improving offense which should lead to much better fantasy production going forward.
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Tony Pollard, RB - Cowboys
On the surface it seems funny to say the RB5 in PPR scoring is due for positive regression, but that is how good Pollard’s role has been.
He has 48 touches in two games and leads the NFL with 6 carries inside the 10-yard line.
For most players, two touchdowns in two games would be a great return, but in Pollard’s case it can be considered underperforming.
As this chart from Hayden Winks shows, his rushing work alone projects for 3-4 TDs.
The Cowboys are legitimate contenders and should continue leaning on Pollard in high value situations. With this workload set to continue, we have every reason to believe Pollard’s best days are ahead.
Another point in his favor, the Dallas defense looks like one of the best units in the league and should put the offense in plenty of positive game scripts this season. As long as Pollard is on the field, he is locked into one of the most valuable roles for fantasy football.
His career 5.0 YPC and 3.75 yards after contact per attempt prove that Pollard is #goodatfootball so the equation here is really simple.
A good player in a great situation will create a lot of fantasy value, and the early usage suggests there is room for improvement on his fantasy points per game output.
Elijah Moore, WR - Browns
The Browns season took a turn for the worse on Monday Night Football when Nick Chubb suffered a brutal knee injury to end his season.
The Cleveland offense desperately needs playmakers and while Jerome Ford is set to take over as the lead back, they will need other players to step up in order to help fill the gap of explosive plays created by Chubb.
Enter Elijah Moore.
Through two games, Moore has been right there with Amari Cooper in all the major usage categories for pass-catchers.
This looks like a 1A/1B situation rather than a clear #1 and #2 receiver, but Moore’s usage doesn’t end there. He has also gotten three carries which he has turned into 24 rushing yards and regularly lines up in the backfield alongside Deshaun Watson.
Moore is a positive regression candidate simply based on his usage through two games. PFF’s Expected Fantasy Points model suggests Moore’s workload should have resulted in about 13 PPR points per game, while he has only delivered 8.2 points per game.
Chubb’s injury also opens the door for Moore to be an even bigger part of the rushing game if he continues to deliver on those touches.
The coaching staff was already using him creatively with Chubb healthy so I expect part of the answer going forward to be turning that creativity up a notch to maximize Moore’s skillset as one of the most talented athletes on the team.
A featured role in the passing game plus even more schemed touches out of the backfield should give Elijah Moore plenty of opportunity to rack up fantasy points over the rest of the season.
Negative Regression
Garrett Wilson , WR - New York Jets
Our lone negative regression candidate this week is WR Garrett Wilson.
Don’t hear what I’m not saying, Wilson is without a doubt one of the most talented young receivers in the game, but he is also in one of the worst situations with Zach Wilson throwing him passes following the Aaron Rodgers injury.
Garrett Wilson’s usage through two games has been as good as we could have hoped, with an elite 30% target share and 48% air yard share.
The problem is the other Wilson, the one throwing the ball. Zach Wilson currently ranks 26th in adjusted completion percentage, 33rd in passer rating, and has the second most turnover worthy plays among QBs so far this season.
It seems very unlikely that the Jets offense is going to be productive with Zach Wilson under center.
Fortunately for Garrett Wilson managers, his talent has won out so far, scoring a TD in each of his first two games to help him deliver WR22 and WR27 performances and delay full panic.
The ugly truth is that these points have not come easy. Garrett Wilson has had to give herculean efforts to save a bad throw from being intercepted and then to take a slant 68 yards to the house.
He is talented enough to deliver these kinds of plays a handful of times throughout the season, but we shouldn’t expect it to be an every week occurrence.
To put some numbers behind it, PFF’s Expected Fantasy Points model has Garrett Wilson’s expected receiving TDs at just 0.6 which aligns with what we have seen on film. If he has to continually overcome the poor QB play we are witnessing, we have to prepare ourselves for a number of down weeks along the way.
The major caveat here is that the Jets could upgrade the QB position (again) at some point this season, but until that happens Garrett Wilson is a low-floor WR3 who is likely to deliver some real duds when he isn’t able to create a big play or two out of thin air.
