Through four weeks of the 2023 NFL season, here's what the trends are telling us. Let’s take a look at two positive regression candidates and two negative regression candidates heading into Week 5.
Positive Regression Candidates
Chris Olave, WR - Saints
It's been an underwhelming start to the season for the Saints' top WR, but much of that has been due to factors outside of his control. Despite an extremely strong target share and targets per route run rate, Olave has had just a 66% catchable target rate.
This has translated into mediocre fantasy production thus far on the season. Through their first three games, Olave was solid and finished as a top-16 WR in Weeks 1 and 3. Week 4 was a different story, though, as he laid a total dud with just one reception for four yards on six targets.
We can attribute a good portion of this disappointing game to Derek Carr playing through a shoulder injury which clearly impacted his ability to throw the ball. Carr’s injury is definitely a concern going forward, but I don’t expect it to be quite as bad for Olave as it was last week.
If Carr does need to sit for a period of time to get healthy, the Saints have Jameis Winston as their backup QB. And regardless of his shortcomings, we know that at the very least, Winston can sling it and can support elite fantasy weapons given what he showed in Tampa Bay a few seasons back.
Despite the modest production so far, Olave’s usage has been solid as well. He's seen 10 or more targets in each of the first three games and was targeted for 146 air yards in Week 4 in spite of the measly actual production.
Per Pro Football Focus's (PFF) Expected Points model, Olave’s usage should have resulted in about 17 PPR points per game so far, good for the 10th best WR role this season. As long as this usage continues (and I expect it to), there will be better days ahead for Olave.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - Seahawks
The first WR selected in the 2023 NFL Draft has gotten off to a slow start relative to some other rookie WRs, but it isn’t time to panic yet.
As a reminder, JSN suffered a broken wrist in the preseason, and it was questionable whether he would even be back in time to play in Week 1. Instead, JSN beat all timelines and has played all four weeks to start the year, but he's failed to reach even 8.5 PPR points in any of those games.
A big part of the story here is that JSN has been targeted extremely close to the line of scrimmage and has a comically low average depth of target (aDOT) of just 3.3 yards. His lower 66% route participation also caps his fantasy ceiling with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett still serving as the incumbent top-two WRs in Seattle.
However, it hasn’t been all bad so far. Despite having only played in three-WR sets (when there is tougher target competition), JSN actually has the second-highest targets per route run rate among Seahawks WRs behind Lockett but ahead of Metcalf.
Additionally, JSN's 5.3 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception is tied for 11th out of 75 WRs with at least 15 targets on the season. This was one of JSN’s top skills coming out of college, so it's encouraging to see that part of his game has clearly translated to the NFL despite unimpressive overall production.
Seattle is on bye this week, and we know that teams often use the bye week to work on ways to get their rookies more involved. This also gives JSN a chance to shake off any lingering impact of his injury and hopefully return from the bye 100% healthy.
Sep 17, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions linebacker Jack Campbell (46) tackles Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) during the second half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Junfu Han-USA TODAY Sports
I don’t expect JSN to jump Metcalf or Lockett in targets coming out of the bye, but I do believe that a more valuable role is on tap for the rookie as soon as Week 6. Whether that comes via more targets downfield, a higher route participation rate, or both, there are multiple paths to JSN emerging as a fantasy asset going forward.
And finally, while we normally think of contingency plays more so at the RB position, JSN qualifies as a WR “handcuff” of sorts who would step into a full-time role if either Metcalf or Lockett were to miss time this year.
I haven’t seen anything to make me question the elite talent evaluation on JSN coming out of college, so I’m not panicking about his slow start. It’s fair to say that offseason expectations may have been a bit too high for him to immediately produce, but JSN is still one of the highest-upside bench players that you can stash rest-of-season.
Negative Regression Candidates
De'Von Achane, RB - Dolphins
This is terrifying to write because Achane has looked like a true model breaker on his early season touches. It's difficult to overstate just how wildly efficient Achane has been on his touches so far, and I don’t believe it's a fluke, as he’s an extremely talented player on one of the league’s best offenses.
However, this is a somewhat unique situation where I think that Achane could be due for negative regression while still keeping his status as a potential league-winner. Let’s dig into why exactly that is.
For starters, Achane’s breakout game (and a lot of his production) came against a Denver defense that's on pace for a historically terrible season. The Broncos allowed 471 yards to the Bears' offense last week…the Bears! As impressive as Achane's performance was in Week 3 against Denver, we still have to take it with a grain of salt, as it might not be the last record-setting performance the Broncos allow this season.
Oct 1, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills cornerback Christian Benford (47) tries to tackle Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
That said, Achane was still the RB5 in PPR scoring last week against a much tougher Buffalo defense, and the rookie can still be a league-winner considering his cheap ADP and status as a waiver wire pickup in many leagues.
However, there are two primary reasons why I don’t expect Achane to be an elite top-five or so RB rest-of-season. The first is usage, and the second is TDs.
Achane’s role has grown each week, and he did eclipse Raheem Mostert in team rush share for the first time last week. Still, that was a rare trailing game script for the Dolphins at Buffalo, which I believe factored into Achane’s usage in Week 4. Going forward, I expect there to be plenty of weeks where Mostert could still see a larger share of the touches, particularly in games where Miami gets out to a lead early.
Additionally, the team should get Jeff Wilson back from IR in the near future, which would add another competent RB into the mix. If Mostert and Wilson are both healthy, I’m not convinced that Achane is a lock to see double-digit touches every week as a smaller RB who might be preserved a bit by a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
As I mentioned, the second reason is TDs. According to PFF's Expected Points model, Achane’s workload so far should've realistically resulted in two to three TDs, but instead, he's scored six TDs already. Four of those came against the aforementioned Denver defense.
It’s fair to say that Achane took the league by storm a bit. Defenses will adjust in an attempt to limit the explosive plays. They’ll still happen because the Dolphins have also found creative ways to use him, especially near the goal line. Still, Miami has a ton of talent and speed outside of Achane, so I do believe that once defenses start to key in on Achane more, Mike McDaniel could use him as a decoy more and create mismatches for Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.
Achane is a fine hold and weekly start, but it's important to recognize that a player who isn’t guaranteed a ton of touches each game will have some down weeks, particularly as defenses see more film on him and seek ways to mitigate the damage he can do with his game-changing speed.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR - 49ers
Like Achane, Aiyuk is another player that I hesitated to write about in this section because of the incredible underlying talent. However, the numbers aren’t in Aiyuk's favor to sustain his blistering WR1 start to the season.
Aiyuk has been balling out in a contract year and has made a strong case to be considered the 49ers' top WR over Deebo Samuel at this point. He leads the team in target per route run rate and air yards share, and Aiyuk is tied for the team lead in end-zone targets through four weeks despite having missed Week 3.
His 20.3 PPR points per game are good for the WR9 on the season, but according to PFF's Expected Points model, Aiyuk's usage thus far should've resulted in just 13.3 PPR points per game, which would be just WR29 on the season.
I definitely think that Aiyuk can continue to outperform his usage, but expecting him to continue outperforming expectations by 7.0 points per game might be extreme. San Francisco has a lot of talented playmakers on offense, and we've yet to see any monster performances from Samuel or George Kittle through four weeks.
Aiyuk is still an every-week starter in fantasy, but I'd expect him to settle in as a fantasy WR2 rather than to maintain his current WR1 pace.
