Regression Session Week 6. I Can Buy Myself Flowers (For Now).
It’s crazy to think that we're already approaching the halfway mark of the fantasy football regular season. We're in that critical stretch where you need to string together some wins and make moves that will secure your team a playoff spot.
To help us make those moves, we now have five full weeks of utilization data to make informed decisions. Some players started the season hot and have since cooled off while other players struggled out of the gate but have since found their rhythm.
As you weigh pivotal start/sit decisions and trade offers over the next few weeks, don’t base your opinions solely off of which player had a big game last week. Instead, use the great tools at Fantasy Life to analyze the underlying trends and stay one step ahead of your leaguemates.
With that in mind, let’s touch on some of the top positive and negative regression candidates as we hit the middle stretch of the 2023 fantasy football season.
Positive Regression Candidates
Zay Flowers, WR - Ravens
Flowers has been the Ravens' clear-cut No. 1 WR for weeks now with 100% route participation in each of his last three games. During that stretch, he has a 28% target share and 34% air yard share but hasn’t finished better than the WR24 in PPR scoring.
The usage has been there, but the production hasn’t been for the rookie. Despite having been the WR14 in expected fantasy points per the Pro Football Focus (PFF) expected points model through five weeks, Flowers has been just the PPR WR33 thus far. For a WR as talented as Flowers, we can reasonably expect that gap to close over the course of the season.
Over the next three games, Flowers and the Ravens' offense will take on the Titans, Lions, and Cardinals. All three of those defenses currently rank top-10 in fantasy points allowed to the WR position through five weeks.
Sep 17, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) completes a catch as Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt (29) defends in the third quarter at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Albert Cesare-USA TODAY Sports
We shouldn’t be too surprised that there have been some bumps along the road for Baltimore's revamped offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. But overall, Lamar Jackson has been playing pretty well, as he currently ranks fifth in QB success rate and 10th in completion percentage over expected.
The strong utilization and quality QB play suggest that some big games are coming for Flowers in the near future, and I'll be sticking with him until those boom weeks arrive barring any changes in his usage. This might be your last chance to buy yourself Flowers at a reasonable price.
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Michael Pittman Jr., WR - Colts
I was absolutely devastated by the Anthony Richardson injury news, as the rookie QB was well on his way to becoming a truly special player. As terrible as it is that we'll be without one of the NFL’s most exciting young QBs for the next few weeks, there are some silver linings for this Colts offense.
The addition of Gardner Minshew this offseason looks like it will pay dividends, as he has stepped in and played well when Richardson has missed time thus far. Minshew looks poised enough to perhaps keep Indianapolis in contention for the AFC South over their next few games.
As electric as Richardson has been, he's also left some points on the table as a passer. The rookie currently ranks dead last in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) while Minshew checks in at 14th in CPOE thus far. This should directly benefit the Colts' pass-catchers, with Pittman in particular due for some better performances.
After having started the season with three consecutive games of at least eight catches for 56 or more yards, Pittman has logged just six catches for 67 yards combined over the last two weeks.
Indianapolis has a huge divisional matchup at Jacksonville this week, and the winner will take sole possession of first place in the AFC South. The Jaguars' defense has been tough against the run but can be beaten through the air.
With Minshew under center and a pretty good Jacksonville offense on the other side to push them, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Colts have to air it out a bit on Sunday. This projected pass-heavy game script should help get Pittman back into the double-digit target range with a decent chance at scoring at TD.
If you need WR help in a league, Pittman is one of my favorite targets to try and buy low on after a couple of down games. The loss of Richardson in the short term is unfortunate for the Colts overall but could be a net positive for Pittman in fantasy.
Negative Regression Candidates
D.J. Moore, WR - Bears
Not to take anything away from what Moore has done recently, but he is easily the top negative regression candidate in all of football right now. After three relatively quiet games to start the season, Moore exploded for more than 70 PPR points in his last two games combined. He has nearly 10 more PPR points than any other skill position player since Week 4.
In these past two games, Moore has seen some insane usage with a 38% target share and 45% air yard share.
Oct 5, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) catches a touchdown over Washington Commanders cornerback Kendall Fuller (29) during the first half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
With his next two matchups being against the Vikings and Raiders, there is a real possibility that Moore could continue his hot streak, but even if he does, it will almost certainly not be to the tune of 30-plus PPR points per game.
Each of the Fantasy Life rankers has Moore between WR10 and WR13 in their Week 6 rankings, and that seems about right to me. As the clear No. 1 target for Justin Fields, Moore belongs in the low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 range and should be in fantasy lineups.
It's been a relief to see the Bears get some things figured out on offense and salvage the fantasy value of both Fields and Moore, but those big performances have come against the Broncos and Commanders, two of the worst defenses in the league. We shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking that Chicago suddenly has an elite offense.
You can still feel confident about starting Moore and Fields in plus matchups (thankfully, the Bears have plenty of those coming up), but don’t be surprised if their fantasy production is just good rather than elite going forward.
George Kittle, TE - 49ers
San Francisco may very well be the best team in football, but it can be a bit frustrating to start 49ers players not named Christian McCaffrey each week. Part of what makes San Francisco's offense so good is the fact that they have so many talented skill-position players. But while all the 49ers' skill-position players have had massive weeks, they've all also had quiet weeks.
Look no further than Kittle as a great example of exciting but inconsistent weekly fantasy production. Kittle has been the definition of boom-or-bust through five weeks, as he's scored either six or fewer PPR points or more than 16 PPR points in each of those games with nothing in between.
His 17% target share and 18% air yard share rank third among San Francisco's pass-catchers, which suggests that Kittle is going to continue being consistent from week to week.
Of course, Kittle is always capable of producing league-winning weeks like the one we saw in Week 5 with three TDs against Dallas, but there will still be plenty of duds incoming over the second of the season.
He already has three separate games this season with three or fewer targets, and the 49ers ranks towards the bottom of TE fantasy usage over the last four games per Hayden Winks's fantasy usage model.
If you have Kittle on your fantasy team, hopefully you knew what you were signing up for when you drafted him. I don’t see anything to suggest that Kittle will break the mold of what he has been: a volatile TE who is capable of putting up week-winning performances when the TDs fall his way.
The good news is that with little consistency from the vast majority of fantasy TEs week to week, you should be able to weather most of Kittle's down games. The biggest challenge if you have Kittle will be overcoming the mental hurdle and just keep plugging him into your lineup even if he has a few consecutive down weeks.
