It’s crazy to think that this week will mark the halfway point of the regular season for most fantasy leagues. Now is the time to be making moves to either secure wins and keep your team in the playoff hunt or to start positioning your team for a championship run down the stretch.
No matter the current state of your team, it's important to understand which players have been over-performing and underperforming in order to stay one step ahead of your leaguemates.
Positive Regression Candidates
Josh Jacobs, RB - Raiders
Last season’s rushing champion hasn’t quite hit the ground running in 2023. This year, Jacobs has finished as the fantasy RB20 or worse in four of six weeks, though he did log finishes as the RB3 and RB6 in Weeks 4 and 5 against the Chargers and Packers. The weekly ceiling is still there for Jacobs even if consistency has been lacking.
Although his production has fallen off from last year, his usage has remained elite, as Jacobs has averaged more than 26 opportunities (carries + targets) per game over the Raiders' last three games.
In fact, Jacobs’s 112.9 expected half-PPR points are the most among all RBs this season per the Pro Football Focus (PFF) Expected Points model. The graph below from Hayden Winks puts this in perspective nicely, as we can see just how much Jacobs has been underperforming relative to his workload and that of other RBs.
An important factor for Jacobs this week will be who ends up starting at QB for the Raiders if Jimmy Garoppolo is out. If Las Vegas goes back to the rookie, Aidan O’Connell, it's worth noting that he targeted Jacobs 11 times in his lone start in Week 4. Connell starting would make Jacobs a confident start for me in fantasy, particularly in PPR formats.
Either way, Jacobs is a prime positive regression candidate who should deliver top-15 fantasy RB performances more frequently going forward. There's a good chance that Jacobs could produce such a game this week against a Bears defense that ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs this year.
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Marquise Brown, WR - Cardinals
It's been a solid but unspectacular start to the season for the Cardinals' top WR. Brown has yet to post a top-12 WR finish this year, but he's currently the PPR WR17 through six games.
If we dig a bit deeper, it becomes clear why this has been the case. Overall, Brown’s usage has been excellent, as he's currently tied for ninth in targets and fifth in air yards among WRs.
This featured role has allowed him to put up good fantasy performances most weeks, but a lack of big plays has held Brown back from being a true difference-maker in fantasy. Brown has been targeted 13 times on passes of 20 yards or more in 2023, but he's only been able to haul in four of those deep targets.
This fact that Brown is being targeted downfield frequently is encouraging and makes him a strong positive regression candidate. We don’t really need much to change; Brown and his QB just need to connect on more of these deep balls.
Even if that doesn’t happen with Josh Dobbs in the near future, we should see Kyler Murray back on the field soon, which could help transform Brown from a good fantasy WR into a great one. Murray has proven to be a good deep passer throughout his career and was even PFF’s highest-graded passer on throws of 20-plus yards back in 2021.
Even with Dobbs likely still starting at QB this week, it’s possible that Brown could deliver his first elite fantasy performance of the year against a Seahawks defense that's struggled to defend opposing WRs.
Negative Regression Candidates
Derrick Henry, RB - Titans
It’s been an up-and-down start to the season for King Henry, as he's ping-ponged between huge performances and total duds through the first six weeks.
The reason behind this volatility isn’t exactly a mystery.
The Titans have made it a priority to work Tyjae Spears into the offense, and the rookie looks to be the most talented RB who's shared the backfield with Henry in recent years.
Henry has long relied on volume and the occasional big play to deliver fantasy value in years past. With Spears taking a growing portion of the carries and also playing a major role in the passing game, Henry’s weekly floor is lower than ever, and his monster games are likely to come less often as well.
Spears has earned this role even prior to Tennessee's Week 7 bye, which is when rookies often see a jump in snaps and utilization. My expectation is that this Titans backfield will continue trending towards an even split.
The other limiting factor is that Tennessee's offense as a whole is worse than they've been for most of Henry’s career. The team is 2-4 and may be without Ryan Tannehill after their bye if his ankle injury lingers. A lack of positive game scripts will make it even more difficult for the Titans to lean on Henry and give him the kind of volume he's historically seen.
Although Henry is still capable of ripping off a big run at any time, his diminishing role and the struggles of the team around him mean his down games are likely to be much more frequent than his fantasy managers would like.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR - Lions
Fresh off a finish as the overall WR1 in Week 6, fantasy managers are understandably feeling great about St. Brown. He’s the top receiver on what appears to be a legitimate NFC contender in Detroit and has been benefiting from borderline elite QB play by Jared Goff.
However, the reality is that ARSB has been over-performing relative to his role and usage in the offense, and he'll be facing tougher competition for targets over the second half of the season.
In particular, ARSB has outperformed TD expectations with three scores already on the season despite having seen just one end-zone target so far. In his previous two seasons, ARSB scored just six and five TDs, respectively, so he's already halfway to a potential career-high through just five games in 2023.
TDs are notoriously volatile, though, so there is a chance that we could see an outlier season from ARSB if he continues to run hot. Plus, he's more than due for a double-digit TD season considering the number of times he was tackled at the one-yard line in 2022.
However, that's easier said than done. Jameson Williams returned to the lineup in Week 6 and scored a TD in his debut, and Detroit also appears to have hit on rookie TE Sam LaPorta, who's already a major component of the passing game with a 23% target share on the season.
Add in two talented RBs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and it becomes clear that the Lions have a bevy of options in the red zone. Without a lot of red-zone target volume, ARSB's TD production could regress soon, which would cap his weekly fantasy upside.
Don’t get me wrong: ARSB will likely rank as a top-12 fantasy WR regardless due to his consistent overall target volume, and I'm certainly not racing to sell him in any leagues.
However, if ARSB's TD rate does regress closer to his expected rate, it's likely that he won't maintain his current pace of 16.6 points per game in 0.5 PPR scoring over the second of the season.
