Regression Session Week 8. Two Eagles Flying in Different Directions.
With Week 8 fast approaching, it's time to start looking at players whose production may change, for better or worse, over the second half of the fantasy season.
No matter the current state of your team, it's important to understand which players have been over-performing and underperforming in order to stay one step ahead of your leaguemates.
Positive Regression Candidates
Kenneth Walker, RB - Seahawks
Kenneth Walker is a top-10 RB on the year in PPR points per game (PPG), and yet, he's still a positive regression candidate. How can that be?
The answer is simple: TDs.
One of the crazier stats so far in 2023 is that Walker has 12 carries inside the five-yard line, which is four more than any other player through seven weeks. Even more impressive is the fact that Walker has already had his bye week, so it only took him six games to see this kind of heavy goal-line usage.
Although the sophomore RB has already managed to find the end zone six times this season, he's still been underperforming in the TD department based on his workload. This is particularly true in the Seahawks' more recent games. Since Week 4, the Pro Football Focus (PFF) Expected Points model has Walker at 3.8 expected rushing TDs compared to just two actual TDs scored.
Seattle has been one of the more run-heavy teams inside the 10-yard line so far in 2023, which suggests that there should be plenty more high-value touches for Walker over the second half of the season.
As strong as Walker’s role has been, he's actually only finished as a top-10 fantasy RB in two of six weeks, but he's shown a high weekly floor by not having finished lower than RB25 in any week thus far. That means we don’t really need anything to change with Walker’s usage; we simply need him to start converting at a higher rate near the goal line.
Sep 24, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) celebrates after rushing for a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Walker also hasn't broken any long TD runs yet this year, as his current season-long run is just 36 yards. Last year, Walker managed to rip off a 50-plus-yard run in three separate games. Those plays are difficult to bank on, but Walker’s talent makes it a possibility in any given week.
The Seahawks' next two matchups are against the Browns and Ravens, two of the NFL’s toughest defenses. However, both teams rank better at defending the pass than at defending the run, so I'd expect a heavy dose of Walker in both upcoming contests along with a high probability of him getting in the end zone.
If you agree that Walker will have some big games coming up in the second half of 2023, you can target him in Pick'em on Underdog Fantasy!
Sign up below to get a 100% deposit match of up to $500 PLUS a mystery Pick'em special with promo code LIFE!
DeVonta Smith, WR - Eagles
It was a productive start to the 2023 season for DeVonta Smith, as he totaled 178 receiving yards and two TDs over the first two weeks. Since then, he's only topped 50 receiving yards once and hasn’t found the end zone.
It’s no surprise that Smith's quiet stretch of games has coincided with a truly historic stretch from A.J. Brown, as Brown has recorded five straight games with 125-plus receiving yards.
Despite that, Smith remains heavily involved in the offense with a 22% target share and 32% share of the team’s air yards on the season. That level of usage has led to him seeing nearly seven targets and 92.4 air yards per game.
These are solid WR2 usage numbers, but Smith is currently just the WR29 in total PPR points and the WR38 in PPR PPG. That's a disappointing follow-up to his WR9 season in 2022.
Fantasy managers are understandably frustrated after having spent an early-round draft pick on Smith, but there are still reasons for optimism. Philadelphia has the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate thus far in 2023, and their upcoming Week 8 matchup against a weak Washington defense should bode well for both Brown and Smith.
After this week, the Eagles go on to a tougher stretch of games against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, and 49ers. These are teams that can both push the Eagles' offense and have good enough defenses to actually take away Philadelphia’s Plan A on offense, which has been Brown more often than not.
So whether it's taking advantage of a soft matchup this week or adjusting to stronger defenses on the schedule ahead, I believe that Smith will deliver for fantasy managers over the second half of the year and re-establish himself as a weekly WR2 in fantasy.
Negative Regression Candidates
A.J. Brown, WR - Eagles
This is really the inverse of the positive regression argument for Smith outlined above. Sure, Brown has proven that he's the No. 1 WR for the Eagles, having put to rest claims that Smith would surpass him this season.
However, I don’t think that the gap between Brown and Smith is actually as wide as it may seem to many. Brown has outscored Smith by about 10 PPR PPG through seven weeks compared to just a 2.5-point expected difference in scoring.
Brown has earned an incredibly impressive 32% target share this season (top-five among WRs) as well as a 48% air yard share (first among WRs). So make no mistake: Brown is one of the best WRs in the game and has been dominant.
Still, he plays alongside several other great pass-catching playmakers, most notably Smith and Dallas Goedert, both of whom will continue to demand strong target shares of their own.
When everything is clicking on offense for Philadelphia's offense, as it has been in recent weeks, the Eagles have been willing to ride the hot hand and let Brown carry them. But as the season progresses, we know that there will inevitably be some big games as well for Smith and Goedert.
Oct 22, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) scores a touchdown past Miami Dolphins cornerback Kader Kohou (4) during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia's offense is good enough to support multiple pass-catchers in a lot of games, but it won’t be just The A.J. Brown Show every single week.
Looking ahead at their schedule, the Eagles face a stretch of tough pass defenses starting in Week 9. I cited this as a potential positive for Smith earlier because those defenses will likely prioritize limiting Brown, which could in turn force Jalen Hurts to look for his No. 2 WR a bit more.
Brown definitely still profiles as a top-12 fantasy WR rest-of-season, so don't go selling him, but I expect that he'll cool off a bit from this most recent five-week run of monster games.
George Pickens, WR - Steelers
Another WR who's been on a hot streak is George Pickens. Over the Steelers' last two games (they were on bye in Week 6), he's managed to turn 18 targets into 237 receiving yards and a TD while averaging over 20 yards per reception in those games.
Though Pickens is certainly capable of making splash plays, his role makes him unlikely to be a consistent fantasy producer.
He's benefited in recent weeks from the absences of Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth, but Johnson is now back in the lineup, and Freiermuth should be back in a few weeks. When Pittsburgh's offense is fully healthy, there will be more target competition for Pickens. That's some reason for concern given the fact that the Steelers's offense currently ranks just 26th in pass attempts per game.
On top of added target competition, Pickens's role will naturally lead to volatile fantasy outputs from week to week. He runs nearly 90% of his routes from an outside alignment, and a high percentage of his looks fall into the aptly-named “prayer targets” category, as shown in this great chart from Hayden Winks.
I have no doubt that Pickens will deliver some more big performances over the second half of the season, but he'll likely have a few down games mixed in as well considering the lack of overall target volume and the role he's asked to play.
Pickens has already shown his low weekly floor on a few occasions this season (6.1 and 4.0 0.5 PPR fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 4, respectively), but fantasy managers may be viewing those more as outlier performances rather than an indication of volatility to come.
I love having Pickens as my top bench WR because he can step in and provide a big fantasy ceiling during bye weeks, but I'd be looking to upgrade to a more consistent WR if anyone in your league thinks that he'll be able to keep up this kind of weekly production.
