Regression Session Week 9. This Saint Will Go Marching On!
Where does the time go? Week 9 marks the halfway point of the NFL regular season, and that means that most fantasy leagues have just six games left before the playoffs start.
Every win matters in fantasy, but we'll really be getting down to crunch time over the next few weeks, as these upcoming matchups can clinch the playoffs for some fantasy teams while eliminating others from contention.
At the same time, usage trends are changing across the NFL as offenses adjust to what's been working and what hasn’t. It’s important that we continue to monitor those changes to stay one step ahead of players about to trend up or down.
With that in mind, let’s dive into which players are due for positive and negative regression over the second half of the year.
Positive Regression Candidates
Chris Olave, WR - Saints
Olave’s unrealized air yards are becoming something of a comedic bit in recent weeks. He currently ranks second among all WRs in air yards with 1,079 thus far on the season, just one yard behind A.J. Brown.
But as for actual receiving yards? Olave's 517 receiving yards on the year aren't quite as compelling, and he currently ranks just 18th among WRs.
The disconnect is primarily due to inaccurate deep passes from Derek Carr. Olave may have seen the second-most targets of 15-plus yards so far in 2023, but he's managed to haul in only 30% of those deep targets, which is well below average.
Interestingly enough, Carr's downfield accuracy woes haven't impacted the other New Orleans pass-catchers to the same degree. Rashid Shaheed has an above-average catch rate on deep targets, and Michael Thomas is only slightly below average in that metric.
This difference in deep-target success rate with Carr gives me hope for better days ahead for Olave. The Saints' upcoming schedule also makes me think that those better days will come sooner rather than later.
The next two matchups for New Orleans are at home against Chicago and then on the road at Minnesota. Two indoor games against below-average pass defenses could be just the recipe Olave needs to finally deliver on the value of his role in the offense, which has allowed him to average 11 targets and 148 air yards per game over his last three contests.
If he can continue to see that kind of target volume, especially on downfield pass attempts, I'd expect his first top-10 fantasy WR finish of the year to come as soon as this week against the hapless Bears. He could even see back-to-back top-10 finishes over the next two weeks.
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DK Metcalf, WR - Seahawks
Our second positive regression candidate this week is also a WR. Metcalf has started slowly in 2023 with only one weekly top-20 fantasy WR finish thus far. There's little reason for optimism if you’ve only been looking at the box score, as Metcalf has finished as the WR35 and WR39 in the last two games after having missed his first ever NFL game in Week 7.
However, the underlying data on Metcalf's usage tells a different story. In the last two weeks, he's set a season-high in targets in each of those games with eight targets in Week 6 and a whopping 14 targets last week. More importantly, four of those targets last week against the Browns were high-value end-zone targets.
Seattle's offense has clearly made an effort to get him the ball recently even if that hasn't yet resulted in increased production. We’ve seen enough from Metcalf in his young career to know that he's talented enough to eventually capitalize on this kind of usage.
The only real concern I have is that he might be more injured than we know. However, the fact that he had such a large role in his first week back makes me think that's unlikely. The Seahawks have gotten solid play recently from rookies Jake Bobo and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so it's not like they needed to rush Metcalf back.
We're at a point in the season where the squeaky wheel narrative can really come into play for frustrated star players. Even if Metcalf doesn’t have a big game this week against a tough Ravens defense, his next two games against weak Commanders and Rams defenses should provide ample opportunity for him to get back on track.
Negative Regression Candidates
Zack Moss, RB - Colts
Despite his usage having declined since the return of Jonathan Taylor in Week 5, Moss has still managed to put up solid fantasy performances.
Over the last four games with Taylor back, Moss has still finished as the RB2, RB8, RB30, and RB14 in PPR scoring, respectively. That's impressive considering the fact that Moss saw less than 50% of his team's rushing attempts in three of those four games.
As great as Moss has been this season, the reality is that the Colts paid Taylor to be their workhorse back, and they've been progressively ramping up his workload each week. Taylor’s snap count has increased each week since he returned, and he should be up to a full workload soon. And while Moss should continue to get mixed in, I'd expect the split between him and Taylor to only get wider over the next few weeks.
Moss may still provide flex production for fantasy teams because the Colts operate one of the most fast-paced offenses in the NFL. As a result, there are more snaps and touches to be split between him and Taylor than there would be for most backfields.
But even so, it'll likely be much more difficult for Moss to deliver consistent production over the second half of the season. In his seven games this season, Moss has finished as a top-15 PPR RB in PPR five times. That kind of consistency is what made him one of the most valuable waiver adds of the early season, but don't expect that to continue.
Moss is still worthy of a roster spot in most formats, but going forward, those top-15 RB finishes will probably be fewer and farther between.
Jordan Addison, WR - Vikings
It pains me to write this, as Addison has been one of the brightest rookie stars of the 2023 season so far. Unfortunately, the outlook for the entire Vikings offense took a major hit when Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles last week.
Addison was already poised to be a negative regression candidate regardless due to his extreme TD efficiency thus far and with Justin Jefferson's impending return from IR. However, with Cousins playing arguably the best football of his career over the last few weeks, Addison at least had a chance to keep his hot streak going.
That's going to be much more difficult now with fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall making his NFL debut this week and probably veteran journeyman Josh Dobbs taking over after that. Hall is a total wild card, so I’m not really sure what to expect this week, but even if he exceeds expectations, his play will almost certainly still be a major step down from what Cousins was doing.
And as for Dobbs in Week 10 and beyond, it's still concerning for Addison and the entire Minnesota offense. Although Dobbs has been serviceable for the Cardinals, he's only thrown eight TDs through eight games. With Jefferson expected to return soon, it's unlikely that Dobbs will be efficient enough to support two fantasy WRs and a fantasy TE most weeks.
Addison has shown promise as a rookie, so there will probably be some good weeks ahead despite the obstacles, but I'd look into other options if you've been relying on Addison as your WR3 or flex these last few weeks.
