Sad but true: You can't score fantasy points without being on the field first.

While we can't necessarily control for future injuries, we can do our best to evaluate existing issues to determine the overall fantasy impact. And by "we," I mean actual doctors who are kind enough to offer fantasy-specific expertise, such as:

  • Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc)
  • Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept)
  • Jesse Morse, MD (@drjessemorse)
  • Deepak Chona, MD (@SportMDAnalysis)

Here are four key RB injuries to be concerned with ahead of the 2024 fantasy season.

Browns RB Nick Chubb (left knee)

Chubb’s multi-ligament injury (MCL and ACL, plus meniscus) has required two separate surgeries and places him in uncharted territory.

Browns general manager Andrew Berry had the following to say about Chubb on April 18:

“He’s really attacked it very aggressively, really since he’s been able to in the fall. … He’s going at a good pace. It’s still early. He actually started running on land this past week. That’s not to say that he’s through the woods or anything, but he’s doing everything in his power. He’s progressing appropriately, but certainly the next few weeks, next few months will be big as we continue to increase the load that he’s able to put on his knee, and then how much he’s ultimately able to do during his training.”

While there is some hope for a full recovery by Week 1, this injury could be a true issue for Chubb in the long-term even if he does manage to get back to looking like 90% of his usual baller self in 2024.

Of course, 90% of Nick Chubb is still pretty good. Just realize this could be problematic to his fantasy upside considering the Browns haven’t exactly handed him the world’s most fantasy-friendly workload over the years:

  • 2022: RB18 in expected PPR points per game, RB8 in real PPR points per game
  • 2021: RB20 expected, RB12 real
  • 2020: RB28 expected, RB9 real

It's good news that the Browns restructured Chubb's deal considering the early-offseason potential for him to be a cap casualty, but it's also fair to wonder if we've seen the best of the 28-year-old talent at this point.

Bottom line: This looks far more aligned with the “Javonte Williams” level of concern than the “Breece Hall” level from last season. Expect severely reduced efficiency even if Chubb manages to avoid starting the season on the PUP list.

FL Mag

Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks (right knee)

The consensus incoming rookie RB1 had surgery to repair his torn right ACL back in early December. Using a basic nine- to 11-month recovery timeline would lead to a glass-half-full return in September. Or it could be stretched to November if things don’t go according to plan.

Good news, though: Dr. Dan Cooper projects Brooks to be cleared by training camp, and NFL.com's Mike Garafolo and Ian Rapoport report that the incoming rookie is expected to be ready for Week 1.

Of course, this 7.5-month timeline seems awfully optimistic. Being "ready" to participate in August is very different from ramping up toward a full workload in Week 1.

Bottom line: Brooks is far from guaranteed to be 100% by the time September rolls around. This doesn’t make him a must-fade option — don’t hate the player, hate the ADP — but at a minimum, early-season expectations should be kept in check.

Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins (left Achilles)

Dobbins could very well be on track to return in Week 1, but a decrease in performance is expected. Note that Dobbins also suffered a brutal multi-ligament knee injury in August 2021.

The recent history of RBs coming back from Achilles injuries simply hasn’t been good:

  • Tarik Cohen: Hasn’t returned to football.
  • James Robinson: Has been on five different teams over the last 12 months, never managing to earn a role along the way.
  • Justice Hill: One of the better case studies, Hill has averaged a solid 4.9 yards per carry in two seasons since the injury and continues to offer upside as a pass-catcher.
  • Cam Akers: Ranks 39th and 40th in yards and yards after contact per carry among 49 qualified RBs in two seasons since returning.
  • Marlon Mack: Has bounced around four different teams over the past two years since parting ways with the Colts, failing to earn anything resembling a consistent role along the way.
  • Isaiah Crowell: Hasn’t returned to football.
  • D'Onta Foreman: Joins Hill as the two most encouraging cases, but even then we’re talking about an early-down committee piece who has typically just worked as a backup/handcuff in bad offenses over the years.
  • Arian Foster: Averaged just 2.5 yards per carry before suffering another lower-body injury, which led to his retirement.

Bottom line: Everyone is rooting for Dobbins to return to his electric self, but this seems like wishful thinking for at least 2024 — and accordingly it’s unlikely he's able to earn a workhorse role or display his usual high-end efficiency in Los Angeles.

Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell (left knee)

His hyperextension and ACL tear was one of the more brutal-looking injuries of 2023. Yet general manager Eric DeCosta offered a somewhat optimistic update in March:

“I think Keaton is doing really well. We’ll see. … Obviously significant knee injury, but we have some experience with that. I’ve gotten some updates from our trainers and doctors, and we feel like he’s on path to come back at some point this season.”

Dr. Chona notes that data suggests an October return is most likely and added that young RBs tend to see a ramp-up period in touches while experiencing an initial explosiveness dip.

Kudos to Mitchell for making the most out of his opportunities in 2023; his average of 8.4 yards per carry was the highest mark among 71 RBs with at least 45 carries. Still, he never received double-digit carries in any of his eight games last season and was just the RB58 in expected PPR points per game.

Any level of dropoff in efficiency — which is expected — could prove detrimental to his high-end fantasy upside.

Bottom line: Mitchell’s best-case ramp-up and likely loss in efficiency make him unlikely to contribute many, if any, fantasy fireworks in 2024. The 22-year-old talent is nothing more than a wishful last-round dart in fantasy land that you probably shouldn't throw.