This year's underwhelming running back draft class caused an unusual amount of reshuffling of running back rooms during NFL free agency. Couple the lack of incoming talent with an increasing number of RB committees and the RB fantasy landscape continues to be a difficult puzzle to solve. 

Luckily, Fantasy Life's analysts can help clear up some of this murkiness. Here are three pressing questions answered by three of Fantasy Life's top RB aficionados, including their bold predictions for the position in 2024.

Which RB are you higher on than the market and why?

Isiah Pacheco | Kansas City Chiefs

Pacheco made it through free agency and the NFL Draft without the addition of any significant competition. The biggest move the Chiefs made was bringing back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who averaged a lowly 22% snap share last season. When you pair that with how Pacheco finished 2024, there are reasons to be optimistic.

Pacheco carved out a near-every-down role from Week 9 through the Super Bowl. Per the Fantasy Life Utilization Report, he accounted for 77% of the rushing attempts and upped his involvement in the passing game with 56% route participation and 11% target share. The former Round 7 draft pick averaged a robust 17.4 fantasy points per contest, making him an RB1.

The Chiefs are a pass-first offense, and the offseason additions of Marquise Brown via free agency and Xavier Worthy in Round 1 of the NFL Draft point toward that trend continuing. That means there might not be much upside from the 17.7 totes per game Pacheco averaged down the stretch, but he resides in a high-quality offense, which boosts his TD upside.

Pacheco's closest comparables in our projection model averaged 15.4 points with an RB12 finish, based on a role similar to late 2023. In early drafts, Pacheco is hovering around pick 50, making him a good target if you decide to wait at the position.

— Dwain McFarland

Joe Mixon | Houston Texans

Look, nobody is denying the reality that Mixon posted some truly underwhelming efficiency metrics last season, but here's the thing: So did a lot of RBs that are expected to go early in fantasy drafts this season.

Mixon's average of 4.0 yards per carry ranked 28th … but was 0.1 ahead of Saquon Barkley.

His rate of forcing 0.12 missed tackles per carry was tied for the third-worst mark in the league … with Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs.

Of course, things like elite volume and a high-scoring offensive environment can help make up for a mediocre real-life RB in a hurry — and Mixon should be experiencing both fantasy-friendly ingredients in 2024.

Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) breaks away on a deep run in the first quarter of the NFL Week 18 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024.

Volume: Mixon finds himself as the Texans' clear-cut No. 1 RB after Devin Singletary took his talents to the Giants. Consider this: Mixon's three-year, $27 million extension with the Texans actually contains more guaranteed money ($13 million) than what Josh Jacobs managed with the Packers ($12.5 million) — there's a reason why Houston didn't draft an RB until late in the sixth round.

Offensive environment: The NFL's reigning 13th-ranked scoring offense is ascending under stud second-year QB C.J. Stroud; the additions of Mixon and (especially) Stefon Diggs make this group even more lethal and the easy pick for breakout group of the year.

Mixon profiles as a probable Round 4 pick despite likely seeing similar touch counts and scoring opportunities as RBs going inside the first two rounds. Sign me up!

— Ian Hartitz

Jaylen Wright | Miami Dolphins

The most common reaction to Wright will be disinterest from fantasy gamers, but I promise you this is a mistake.

Sure, on the surface Wright appears blocked on the depth chart behind De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, but that takeaway makes lots of assumptions.

It assumes Wright is definitely the worst of the three RBs. I'm not so sure. He has elite athleticism (4.38 40-yard dash and a 11-foot-2 broad jump) and the size to carry a nice workload (5-foot-10, 210 pounds).

It also assumes that both Achane and Mostert will stay healthy the whole seasons, but both backs missed time last year and Mostert in particular has a long history with injuries.

And it assumes that HC Mike McDaniel, who continues to stockpile speedsters, does not know how to utilize his playmakers. On that one, I'm very much not in agreement.

What we do know is that there is chaos at the RB position every year and that the Dolphins' run-game scheme is one of the best in the league.

Instead of trying to guess how those RB points will be split, simply take stabs on all of the Dolphins' backs when given the opportunity. The fact that Wright is the cheapest of them all is just the cherry on top.

— Peter Overzet

FL Mag

Which RB are you lower on than the market (i.e. a “Do Not Draft!” Player) and why?

Nick Chubb | Cleveland Browns

I love this guy. He has been one of the best backs in the NFL over the last five seasons. However, he's coming off a gruesome left knee injury that required multiple surgeries to repair his ACL, MCL and meniscus, and he's 28. Also, that's the same knee that required surgery on his PCL, MCL and LCL in college.

Recent injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Javonte Williams — who were younger — are the closest comparisons we have for the multi-faceted nature of Chubb's injury. Dobbins tried to return to the field early in 2022 before shutting things down from Weeks 7 to 14. Upon his return, he was a low-end RB2, averaging 13.6 points per game.

Williams returned in Week 1 of 2023 and slowly ramped up to an RB1 workload over seven games. However, his forced missed tackle rate dipped from 0.31 to 0.16, and his yards after contact fell from 3.4 to 2.7. Ultimately, the Broncos returned to a committee by Week 15, and Williams finished the season averaging 11.2 points, making him an RB3. 

The chances that Chubb misses significant time or is a lesser version of himself are substantial, making it hard to envision a scenario in which passing on him costs us a fantasy championship. He is an "avoid" for me in 2024.

— Dwain McFarland

Tony Pollard | Tennessee Titans

The falloff in 2023 was a rough one for Pollard. He posted top-three marks in virtually any advanced RB metric you want to look at … then below-average numbers across the board once he finally was given the full-time starting job. The trademark big-play ability was basically gone: Ezekiel Elliott (20.25 mph) actually posted a higher top speed as a ball carrier than Pollard (20.0) last season.

Dec 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) runs the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Many have pointed to the idea that Pollard improved down the stretch once he felt he was back to full health following 2022's season-ending fractured fibula. That simply wasn't the case, as his marks in yards per carry (4.0 vs. 5.2), yards after contact per carry (3.0 vs. 3.8) and explosive run play rate (9% vs. 16%) during his final nine games of 2023 were still shells of what he managed the previous year.

Now, Pollard enters a new offense with PFF's reigning 32nd-ranked O-line and young, explosive competition in the form of Tyaje Spears. The Titans ranked 27th in scoring last season and the Cowboys ranked … first. Pollard needs to regain vintage form in order to make up for this catastrophic downgrade in overall offensive environment — and that's simply not a bet I plan on making more drafts than not.

— Ian Hartitz

Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams

Williams was one of the biggest surprises in 2023. Unfortunately, he's now one of the shakiest picks you can make in the first few rounds of your draft.

The entire selling point for Williams is volume. HC Sean McVay employed him as a true workhorse back last season after getting rid of Cam Akers. His voluminous RB usage was rivaled only by Christian McCaffrey.

At one point last season, McVay admitted in a press conference that they needed to take work off Kyren's plate. The issue, though, was the Rams didn't have another back the coaches could trust, so Williams remained the bell-cow back.

That's no longer the case after the team spent a premium Round 3 pick on Blake Corum, who has a similar do-it-all skill set. The range of outcomes is wide here. Kyren could certainly hold off Corum and relegate him to handcuff status, or Corum could force a committee. 

Kyren's price in drafts isn't properly accounting for the committee risk and the new threat to his volume. He was a great story in 2023, but you are better off letting someone else burn a pick on him in 2024.

— Peter Overzet

What is your bold prediction for the RB position in 2024?

Waiting on RB is the winning formula for 2024

The idea of waiting on RBs in fantasy drafts has become increasingly popular over the last few years. While the early results of zero-RB drafting were mixed, many people are doing it now, creating HUGE discounts at the position. That means more fantasy leagues than ever will be won by focusing on WRs early in drafts and circling back to RBs.

Historically, taking older or inefficient RBs based on a weak depth chart has been a mistake in the early rounds. However, in the modern age of WR-heavy draft rooms, those archetypes are getting pushed down to Rounds 5 through 7.

Based on early best-ball data, here are some RBs going in that range:

On the flip side, this also means WRs are going earlier than ever, and if you wait, you may get boxed out at the position — especially in point-per-reception formats that require three starters.

While you might not be excited about your RB1, you will still get to add upside options in the following rounds. When older backs break down as the season progresses, younger backs get their chance. So, if you go with this strategy, remember to grab some rookies like Trey Benson and Jonathon Brooks.

— Dwain McFarland

The "RB Dead Zone" pulls an Undertaker in 2024

The "RB Dead Zone" hasn't necessarily been a bullet-proof philosophy, and there will always be an exception or two, but the gist is that the lack of true workhorse RBs in modern fantasy football makes it unwise to chase the position after the first handful or two of truly elite backs are already off the board in the first few rounds of any given fantasy draft.

But what if this strategy has swung too far? What if there are actually multiple middle-round RBs who profile as every-down options in good-to-great offenses?

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) runs the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

There are no fewer than five RBs with this archetype tentatively expected to be available in Rounds 4-7 this year:

Each of these RBs either has an incumbent workhorse role or was seemingly paid to do just that this offseason. They have all proven capable of racking up fantasy points through the air and will be operating out of offenses that at a minimum aren't expected to suck.

This isn't to suggest you should necessarily take four RBs in a row in the middle rounds of the draft, but I'm happy to lock down at least one of these volume-based, undervalued anchors in drafts when I've focused more on pass-catchers early.

— Ian Hartitz

Rookie RBs will surprise

The consensus opinion from both NFL evaluators and fantasy analysts is that this is a disappointing crop of rookie RBs. And at first blush, it's hard to disagree. There's no Bijan Robinson- or Jahmyr Gibbs-level prospects in this class.

But two factors have me incredibly excited about what this crop of rookies can do for our fantasy teams in 2024.

First, there were tons of sneaky good landing spots despite the Cowboys punting the position in the draft. 

Jonathon Brooks (Carolina) and Trey Benson (Arizona) will take over their respective backfields by the season's end (and I already gushed about the Dolphins' Jaylen Wright above).

Bucky Irving (Bucs) and Ray Davis (Bills) will square off against incumbent backs who have warts on their profiles. Rachaad White (Bucs) is not a good rusher, and James Cook (Bills) is explosive but prone to costly mistakes.

Deep sleepers such as Tyrone Tracy (Giants) and Kimani Vidal (Chargers) could easily climb their depth charts given the flimsy competition ahead of them.

The second selling point on these rookies is their price. Because we don't have any elite prospects, almost all of these names are available in the double-digit rounds of drafts. Year after year, rookie Zero RB targets emerge from the late rounds. I don't expect this year to be any different.

Enjoy the discounts and buy the dip on this year's rookie RBs with your late-round picks.

— Peter Overzet