Week 1 has come and gone. Sixteen NFL games brought joy, laughs and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory.
What follows is a breakdown on all the “Sheesh” moments from Week 1. I’ve re-watched every game and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass-catchers who could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass-catchers who did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers who managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players who scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by penalty
- Other random shit that tilted fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
First: The Top-Two “Sheesh” Players of Week 1.
Top-Two “Sheesh” Players of Week 1
Kadarius Toney, WR - Chiefs
This one was particularly "sheeshful" due to the reality that everyone was tuning in for the opening kickoff of the 2023 season.
Something bad seemed to happen pretty much every time the Chiefs tried to get Toney involved:
- A trick play shovel pass to Toney produced his only reception of the evening; too bad he was stopped just short of scoring at the 1-yard line.
- Patrick Mahomes looked Toney’s way on a 3rd and 6 from the 46-yard line on a short crosser… only to watch as the ball bounced directly off the hands of the ex-Giants receiver and into the lap of Lions DB Brian Branch, who managed to take the gift all the way to the house.
- Another big third down (to be fair, all third downs are big third downs), another incomplete pass off Toney’s hands. This one was a bit more defensible given that Richie James crossed directly in front of his teammate right before the ball arrived.
- Last but not least: Mahomes lofted what should have been an easy 15-plus yard completion to wide-open Toney in the middle of the field… dropped. Sheesh.
Sep 7, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney (19) drops a pass as Detroit Lions linebacker Jack Campbell (46) looks on during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
The performance earned PFF’s worst single-game grade given to a WR since 2018. His -2.19 expected points added per target basically means the other team scored a TD for every three times that the Chiefs targeted Toney.
Toney has had better days — literally his previous game in the Super Bowl was one of them — but last Thursday night was certainly one to forget.
At least the 24-year-old talent isn’t shying away from his ongoing feud with Giants fans.
Ryan Tannehill, QB - Titans
Tannehill’s Sunday afternoon performance was somehow even worse than the box score indicated, and believe me: The box score is already bad.
- 16-for-34
- 198 yards
- 0 TD
- 3 INT
- 3 sacks
However, we’re here for what Tannehill did that can’t quite be captured in the box score.
First, the veteran QB failed to take advantage of a beautifully designed trick play and sailed a pass long to a wide-open Chigoziem Okonkwo.
It sure looked like this should have been a 47-yard TD.
Next, Tannehill missed out on a potential 65-yard TD to RB Tyjae Spears, who had broken wide open down the left sideline courtesy of a busted coverage.
While Tannehill was rolling to his left, he had time — didn’t take a hit — and still proceeded to not even give the rookie RB a chance to come down with the ball inbounds, let alone make a game-changing house call.
The artist known as TanneThrill posted top-10 efficiency numbers in a myriad of advanced metrics from 2019 to 2022; don’t completely give up on the man for one bad week at the office.
That said: Sheesh.
Other Painful Sheeshes
Panthers QB Bryce Young and WR Jonathan Mingo
I’m not saying this for sure would have been a 99-yard TD with a perfect pass, but I’m also not saying this couldn’t have been a 99-yard TD with a perfect pass.
The fact this sheesh occurred from a clean pocket adds to the sheeshfulness at hand.
Packers QB Jordan Love and TE Luke Musgrave
First, Love missed a wide-open Musgrave for what had a chance at going for 56 yards and a score due to the busted coverage at hand.
Next, Musgrave (again) benefited from being left all alone in the secondary, this time corralling the high throw — but falling down untouched inside the 5-yard line instead of, you know, scoring the wide-open TD.
These weren’t great feats of performance from Musgrave spoiled by Love. Rather, the duo failed to take advantage of what could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been two long TDs courtesy of busted coverages. Ultimately not a big deal for the Packers, but for fantasy managers: Sheesh.
Steelers pass-catchers of all shapes and sizes
There were two near scores for Kenny Pickett’s big-two WRs on Sunday:
- Before WR Diontae Johnson suffered a hamstring injury, he broke wide open on what had the potential to be a 16-yard score — but Pickett’s pass was brutally low and behind his intended target.
- Second-year WR George Pickens made his weekly absurd catch, too bad he landed out of bounds on what could have been a 14-yard score if he was a true alien.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - Lions
The rookie’s usage is a story for another day (actually, today, check out Dwain McFarland’s ever-excellent Utilization Report).
Our topic for now is the reality that Gibbs sure looked like he had the corner on a rush from the 10-yard line before unfortunately getting caught by the turf monster.
You be the judge on just how sheeshful of a moment this was, but I personally think this is six points nine out of 10 times.
Brutal drops
Three additional drops stood out over the weekend on plays that sure seemed like had the potential for much more:
- Rams WR Van Jefferson, ugh.
- Buccaneers WR Mike Evans probably could have had a second score from 21 yards out, but sadly he dropped the slant.
- Cowboys TE Peyton Hendershot couldn’t hang on from 19 yards out.
Scoop and score… or maybe not
It sure looked like Saints QB Derek Carr lost control of the football, which was then scoop and scored by the Titans for a long, game-changing TD.
Two problems:
- The refs blew the play dead as an incompletion. Why do they do this?
- The refs didn’t change their minds even after replay sure as hell seemed to confirm what the booth and Gene Steratore thought about the matter.
Down at the 1-yard line
These players managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane. Sadly, they did not score on the same drive:
- Colts QB Anthony Richardson
- Rams QB Matthew Stafford
- Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo (fumbled snap)
- Chargers RB Austin Ekeler
- Packers RB AJ Dillon
- Rams RB Kyren Williams
- Colts RB Deon Jackson
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill
- Chargers WR Keenan Allen
- Rams WR Puka Nacua
- Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney
We’ll keep a season-long leaderboard going here, but for now all fantasy managers can say is: Sheesh.
Interceptions that were NOT the QB’s fault
While the box score doesn’t account for who to blame on any particular interception, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that sometimes the QB isn’t to blame.
There were roughly four such instances in Week 1:
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had his pass bounce directly off Kadarius Toney's hands and to a Lions defender for a pick-six.
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence dumped the ball to RB Tank Bigsby in the flat while under pressure. Not a gorgeous throw by any stretch, but one that hit Bigsby in both hands before being intercepted.
- Patriots QB Mac Jones targeted Kendrick Bourne at the first-down marker, only for the high throw to bounce off his receiver's hands and straight to Eagles CB Darius Slay
- Giants QB Daniel Jones tried to simply dump the ball to RB Saquon Barkley in the flat on a hopeless 3rd and 19, only for Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs to drill Barkley at the catch point and cause the tipped-INT.
Additionally, Browns QB Deshaun Watson, Commanders QB Sam Howell had interceptions come off of deflections at the line of scrimmage.
Perhaps you still blame said QBs for failing to get the football around the pass rush; just realize they weren’t QUITE as egregious as some of the other mishaps from the week.
Most unrealized air yards
Air yards measure the distance that any given pass travels (wait for it) in the air.
So if Lamar Jackson throws a b-e-a-utiful 50-yard bomb to FB Patrick Ricard, who then takes the ball into the end zone for a 75-yard TD: We have just 50 air yards despite the gain being for 75.
Unrealized air yards are a good way to see what pass-catchers had a lot of fantasy-friendly opportunities in a given week, but simply couldn’t get the job done (job done).
Sometimes unrealized air yards are more akin to “prayer yards” because the pass wasn’t overly catchable in the first place, so grinding the ole film helps with identifying those sorts of situations.
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (85) catches a pass while warming up before the AFC championship NFL football game, Sunday, Jan. 30, 2022, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. Cincinnati Bengals At Kansas City Chiefs Jan 30 Afc Championship 20
Subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards helps us pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
The following eight players racked up at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 1:
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins (145 unrealized air yards)
- Texans WR Nico Collins (107)
- Eagles WR A.J. Brown (99 — this target was particularly painful)
- Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne (97)
- Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte (93)
- Browns WR Marquise Goodwin (86)
- Saints WR Chris Olave (82)
- Panthers WR Terrace Marshall (77)
- Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins (77)
Slightly better ball TDs
Our previous section helped quantify the most missed opportunities through the air, but there were an additional handful of targets that I can’t help call out because it sure seemed like the following players could have put six points on the board with a bit more accurate pass.
Pressure, openness and other extenuating factors vary; none of these were complete layups.
That said, fantasy managers undoubtedly jumped out of their seats for a whole lot of nothing when they happened.
- Saints WR Chris Olave (potential TD from 74 yards out)
- Browns WR Marquise Goodwin (43)
- Rams WR Puka Nacua (36)
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins (32)
- Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (21)
- Buccaneers TE Ko Kieft (18)
- Steelers WR Diontae Johnson (16)
- Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (9)
- Saints WR Michael Thomas (8)
Victims of DPI
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would FOR SURE make the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain — and maybe even a TD.
The top-five players in most yards gained courtesy of drawing DPI flags were as follows:
- Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. (43)
- Chiefs Justin Watson (41 yards)
- Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (37)
- Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks (37)
- Dolphins WR Erik Ezukanma (30)
Also note that Chargers TE Donald Parham (5, from the 6-yard line), Vikings WR K.J. Osborn (4, from the 5-yard line) and Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers (1, from the 2-yard line) drew DPI penalties close enough to the goal line or in the end zone to position their offense at the doorstep.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb drew a hold instead on a nice route that sure looked like it had the potential to be a 16-yard score.
Saints WR Chris Olave sure looked like he deserved to make this list, but the official swallowed his whistle. Sheesh.
