It was just one week.
Only 60 minutes of football were played.
No need to panic, plenty of weeks left.
BUT: There were an alarming amount of duds from some of the NFL’s brightest stars under center, both in real life and in fantasy land.
Seriously: Just look at the top-five highest-scoring QBs from Week 1.
- Tua Tagovailoa (28.1 fantasy points)
- Mac Jones (25.1)
- Jordan Love (23.0)
- Anthony Richardson (21.9)
- Deshaun Watson (21.7)
Overall, Patrick Mahomes (QB7 finish) was the only top-six signal-caller in preseason ADP to finish higher than QB15 during the first 60 minutes of 2023.
If you drafted a QB early this season, you were not happy on Sunday.
Some notable duds from six different QBs who all finished as top-nine options at the position in fantasy points per game last season:
- Jalen Hurts: 12.5 fantasy points (QB19)
- Josh Allen: 12.0 (QB20)
- Geno Smith: 9.1 (QB25)
- Lamar Jackson: 7.6 (QB27)
- Daniel Jones: 6.5 (QB28)
- Joe Burrow: 3.2 (QB31)
When comparing vs. weekly fantasy production since the beginning of last season: Allen, Burrow, Jackson and Jones posted their single-lowest single-game totals, while Hurts and Geno produced their second-lowest marks.
It’s also at least somewhat ironic that pretty much every QB who got a big-money extension with their employer over the offseason REALLY struggled in their first game action since.
More money, more problems, am I right? (Seriously, am I right? Personally, I have no idea.)
That said: It really was only one week. Keep your composure people.
Let’s take a closer look at these respective situations to get an idea of what exactly went wrong, and whether or not fantasy managers should expect a bounce back in Week 2 and beyond.
Jalen Hurts, QB - Eagles
The Performance
Hurts threw for just 170 yards with one TD and zero INTs while also chipping in 37 scoreless yards on the ground.
The performance would have looked a bit prettier had A.J. Brown not ever so slightly bobbled this downfield dime; either way this was a road game in Foxborough that we’re talking about here.
Sep 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) rushes against the New England Patriots during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
The Eagles’ franchise QB still posted top-10 marks on the week in PFF passing grade (71.7) and adjusted completion rate (80.7%).
The larger issues were:
- Lack of a run game to lean on. Philly totaled just 97 yards on the ground on a gross 3.9 yards per carry after ranking fifth in rush yards per game (147.6) last season.
- Pressure. The typically dominant Eagles offensive line didn’t do a great job keeping Hurts upright last Sunday, ultimately surrendering three sacks and a 42.1% pressure rate — more than 10% higher than their 13th-place mark from last season (31.6%).
Will things be fixed in Week 2?
You would sure like to think so, especially against a Vikings secondary that failed to shut down Baker Mayfield and company in Week 1.
While the unit did limit the Buccaneers to just 169 yards through the air, Minnesota hardly deserves the benefit of the doubt when looking at their pass defense efficiency metrics since the beginning of last season:
- EPA allowed per pass: +0.049 (26th)
- Explosive pass play rate allowed: 16.1% (27th)
- Yards per attempt allowed: 7.6 (29th)
- Pressure rate: 31.7% (22nd)
Hurts had little trouble with this group in Week 2 of last season, posting high-end 333-1-1 passing and 11-57-2 rushing lines to finish as the week’s overall fantasy QB3. Don’t be surprised if we get a repeat performance on Thursday Night Football against the league’s reigning 28th-ranked defense in fantasy points per game allowed to the position.
Panic level: 1/10
Josh Allen, QB - Bills
The Performance
Allen channeled his younger-DGAF self on Monday night, throwing not one, not two, but three ill-advised INTs (to the same guy!) while also fumbling a snap that hit him in the chest before losing said ball again upon running into his teammate (s/o Mark Sanchez).
The two-time overall fantasy QB1 still made a few great throws and chipped in 36 scoreless yards on the ground, but even he couldn’t say much of anything nice about the performance.
Of course, this did come against Sauce Gardner and the Jets’ lethal pass defense, who are now responsible for all three of Allen’s worst performances in terms of fantasy points from purely passing production since the beginning of last season.
Only the Eagles (19.2%), Saints (18.9%) and Jaguars (18.9%) topped the Jets (18.8%) when it came to which defense contested the highest rate of their opponent’s targets in Week 1.
It’s a good thing that Allen and company only have to deal with this group twice a year.
Will things be fixed in Week 2?
There’s a pretty damn good chance at home against a Raiders defense that performed admirably against Russell Wilson in Week 1, but did allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last season.
Don’t be surprised if Maxx Crosby makes his presence felt on at least a few occasions; just realize Vegas fully expects this Bills offense to rebound in a major way. Just five offenses are currently implied to score more than 25 points based on Week 2 spreads:
- Bills (28.25)
- Eagles (27.75)
- Chiefs (27.25)
- Lions (27.25)
- 49ers (26.25)
Look for the all-time QB2 in fantasy points per game to remind everyone just how much of a cheat code he can be when everything is clicking.
Panic level: 1/10
Geno Smith, QB - Seahawks
The Performance
Smith’s most memorable moment in Week 1 came courtesy of him yelling “OH MY GOD” upon seeing Aaron Donald sprint at him.
His 112 passing yards were easily his lowest in 22 starts with the Seahawks over the years, while the six rushing yards were well removed from last year’s per-game average of 21.5.
While Smith just missed on a few tight window throws to WR Tyler Lockett, this was generally just a case of the entire offense failing to get going in any way, shape or form. Smith obviously didn’t overly help the cause; that said it’s tough to make too much good happen when the offense finishes as the week’s seventh-worst unit in both pressure rate allowed (44.8%) and drop rate (8.5%).
Oh yeah, one more small (HUGE) note: Starting tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas were both lost to injury early in the third quarter. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the offense’s production fell off in a major way following their departures:
- First half: 13 points, 10 first downs, 5.3 yards per play, +0.122 EPA per play
- Second half: 0 points, 0 first downs, 0.9 yards per play, -0.754 EPA per play
Will things be fixed in Week 2?
It’s certainly not a given that things will improve in a major way with a matchup against Aidan Hutchinson and company on the horizon.
As of now, the Seahawks are expected to be without Cross (turf toe, considered week-to-week), while at least Lucas’ patella tendon soreness isn’t believed to require any surgical work to be done.
Still, this all compelled the Seahawks to bring in 41-year-old OT Jason Peters for a visit — not exactly ideal for a group that was already just PFF’s 30th-ranked unit before the season.
There’s too much firepower on this offense for the Seahawks to sink for too long, but these offensive line injuries are absolutely no joke ahead of a road trip against an improved Lions defense that managed to go toe-to-toe with the Travis Kelce-less Chiefs in Week 1.
I’m more concerned about the near term here than anything.
Panic level: 6/10
Lamar Jackson, QB - Ravens
The Performance
Of all the bad fantasy performances listed, Jackson probably had the least concerning real-life effort. One (bad) interception aside, the 2019 MVP was pretty damn efficient in what he was asked to do through the air:
- PFF passing grade: 63.3 (No. 16 among 32 qualified QB)
- Yards per attempt: 7.7 (No. 7)
- Adjusted completion rate: 90% (No. 2)
The performance wasn’t overly flashy — Jackon’s 5.1-yard average target depth was the fifth-lowest mark in Week 1 — but he also didn’t benefit statistically from Odell Beckham Jr. racking up a week-high 43 yards in defensive pass interference penalties.
Dec 4, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) warms up prior to the game against the Denver Broncos at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
Throw in an underwhelming (for him) 6-38-0 rushing line, the absence of No. 1 TE Mark Andrews, non-ideal weather and a 22-6 lead entering the 4th quarter, and you have the perfect recipe for a disappointing fantasy performance.
Will things be fixed in Week 2?
Hopefully, although there are some serious offensive line injuries to worry about ahead of a matchup with the Bengals.
- C Tyler Linderbaum (sprained ankle) is considered week-to-week.
- LT Ronnie Stanley (sprained knee) is considered week-to-week.
Throw in the season-long absence of stud RB J.K. Dobbins (Achilles), and suddenly this offense is at the risk of being down four key starters ahead of a matchup with the reigning AFC North champs.
Jackson is far too lethal on the ground to fall too far down the fantasy ranks for an extended period of time; just realize it’s tough to expect him to get back to 2019 highs while so many key offensive pieces remain all sorts of banged up.
Panic level: 3/10
Daniel Jones, QB - Giants
The Performance
Jones was absolutely pulverized throughout the Giants’ embarrassing 40-0 loss to the Cowboys on opening night. Sure, a 104-0-2 passing line with seven (!) sacks taken is terrible enough in and of itself, but the constant pressure was truly something out of this world.
Overall, the Giants allowed a pressure on 65.9% of their dropbacks in Week 1 — the third-highest single-game mark since 2020 (TruMedia).
Horrible passing day aside, it was good to see Jones continue to lean on his legs to the tune of a 13-43-0 rushing line. The QB5 in fantasy points per game from purely rushing production last season, Jones needs to continue attempting to live up to his Vanilla Vick moniker in order for fantasy managers to survive what was a sad excuse for an NFL passing game in Week 1.
Will things be fixed in Week 2?
The Cardinals defense doesn’t profile as the same sort of juggernaut that Dallas has put together, although they do deserve some credit for posting Week 1’s sixth- and fifth-best marks in EPA (-0.303) and yards (3.9) allowed per play against the Commanders.
While Week 3’s road trip to San Francisco will probably produce some nightmares for everyone involved in the Giants offense, it’d sure as hell make a lot of sense if this group puts forward a far better effort this week against what many still consider to be the league’s single-worst team.
QBs like Jones and Justin Fields were already lacking heavily in the passing production department last year… and this didn’t stop either from posting top-10 fantasy numbers by the time the season was finished. While the ceiling here is limited as long as the passing “attack” continues to largely bring knives to a gunfight, Jones continues to possess the skill-set of someone far better in fantasy land than in real life.
Panic level: 4/10
Joe Burrow, QB - Bengals
The Performance
Burrow has never had a less productive game, totaling just 82 passing yards against a Browns defense that benefited mightily from rather terrible weather conditions in Cleveland.
I get it: We’ve seen Burrow save some of his best performances for snow games and other inclement January environments; just realize he had a lot of problems gripping the ball all game long — something that makes sense given his nine-inch hand size (sixth-percentile).
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) scrambles for a first down in the first quarter of the AFC championship NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs led 13-6 at halftime. Cincinnati Bengals At Kansas City Chiefs Afc Championship Jan 29 151
Ultimately, Joe Brrr has put far too much good football on tape since entering the league to make any of us overly panic about a rough, weather-induced, 60 minutes of football. I’m inclined to treat this entire Bengals much like the Packers’ infamous 38-3 Week 1 stinker against the Saints back in 2021.
Will things be fixed in Week 2?
The weather currently looks great for Sunday — so I’m going to go with yes, especially against a Ravens defense that is tentatively still expected to be without No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey (foot) and will DEFINITELY not have S Marcus Williams (pec).
A hungry Bengals offense that remains one of the league’s most talented passing attacks at home in good weather facing a Ravens defense expected to be without their top two secondary starters, is that something you might be interested in?
Panic level: 1/10.
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