Super Wild Card Weekend Matchup of the Week. Packers @ Cowboys Breakdown.
Win and in. One and done.
These two phrases we’ve heard often over the last week as we’ve transitioned from the regular season into Super (putting ‘Super’ in front really enhances the drama, right?) Wild Card weekend. And they sound so simplistic, but, at the same time, ignore either the current stakes or what it’s taken for each team to get here.
Think about the takes you’ll see on social media if Dallas goes “one and done” against HC Mike McCarthy’s old team. Meanwhile, the vibes for the Packers, who needed a win to get in, couldn’t be better. Ironically, “survive and advance” might be the simplest way to describe this matchup, but we have to dive into the details to find the fantasy goodness.
Actually, we know who will be producing for Green Bay. And it starts at the top.
Packers Wild Card Weekend Outlook
Since their Week 6 bye, Jordan Love ranks in the top 6 in EPA per play (3rd), completion percentage over expected (4th), and passing success rate (6th). He’s finished as a top-12 QB in 8 of 12 games, which ties for the second-most behind Josh Allen (9) and Jalen Hurts (9). And, given recent history, it’s not like the offense has become more pass-heavy in order for the first-time starter to rack up all these yards.
Unsurprisingly, the Packers sit in the middle of the pack (pun intended) with a 51.6% passing rate on early downs. However, after some bye-week adjustments, they’re sixth in dropback EPA on first and second down. Green Bay averaged the fewest yards of any team needed to move the chains on third down (6.0). They found their easy buttons. And they’ll need those against a defense that, at least on paper, looks impenetrable.
As of this writing, former DPOY Stephon Gilmore will be on the field with a harness to manage his shoulder injury from last week. Even at 75%, a secondary with Gilmore and Daron Bland, along with their pass rush, will put Love in a tough spot. But we’ve seen similar offensive styles give DC Dan Quinn problems. Look at the top 5 passers, by success rate (and their play-callers), to face Dallas:
- Brock Purdy (Kyle Shanahan)
- Tua Tagovailoa (Mike McDaniel)
- Josh Dobbs (Drew Petzing)
- Jalen Hurts (Brian Johnson)
- Geno Smith (Shane Waldron)
We know about the Shanahan-McDaniel connection and, of course, their ties to Packers HC Matt LaFleur. Plus, Cardinals OC Drew Petzing spent time under Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland, who employs a similar offensive approach. And from 2016 to 2020, Shane Waldron worked with Sean McVay. So, maybe the Packers’ chances of winning aren’t solely based on vibes.
Purdy (66.7% attempt rate) and Tua (50.0%) hammered the middle of the field (MoF) against Dallas. Intuitively, this makes sense. From Deebo Samuel to Tyreek Hill, getting your playmakers in space to create explosives is the recipe for success. Accordingly, both offenses combined for 350 yards and two scores, emphasizing this idea. The Packers don’t have a Deebo or a Tyreek, but they’ve got two guys that can come close in a pinch.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (11) and wide receiver Bo Melton (80) celebrate a reception against the Chicago Bears during their football game Sunday, January 7, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers defeated the Bears 17-9. Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
Jayden Reed’s involvement continues to be a catalyst for the passing game. With Christian Watson (who has been limited in practice this week) out, the rookie slot man has led the team in targets. But it’s not just the volume that puts Reed in the spotlight for their playoff matchup. Where he has earned them will create the most chaos.
Since Week 13, Reed’s 28.2% air yard share on passing attempts between the numbers leads the team. His ten looks from Love are averaging 16.0 air yards per target. And the result has been 113 yards and two TDs. Reed’s injuries have had him in and out of the lineup, forcing Green Bay to dig deeper into their reserves. With Dontayvion Wicks (highest MoF route rate) and Bo Melton (the most MoF targets without Watson) as legitimate secondary options, Love has the talent within and around him to attack Dallas’s defense.
Cowboys Wild Card Weekend Outlook
For Dallas, at least they get to play at home. You’d think Dak Prescott ended the “home/road split narrative” after torching the Commanders for four TDs. Regardless, we have seen McCarthy feature the passing game more after a more conservative approach in Weeks 15 and 16.
You wouldn’t see a difference checking the box scores. Prescott hasn’t thrown the ball fewer than 30 times in a single game since Week 5. But even in the games where Dallas’s dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate has cratered, the distribution of targets hasn’t changed. There are no Meltons or Wicks or even Malik Heaths on this team to keep defensive secondaries guessing. It’s the same three guys. But, against Green Bay, their top-end talent might just be enough.
Christian McCaffrey is, and should be, this year’s fantasy MVP. But CeeDee Lamb has to be the runner-up (I’m giving Puka Nacua the Best Waiver Wire Pickup award, just to be clear).
Lamb has ten games with more than ten targets. The only player with more is Tyreek Hill (11). No surprise there. The fourth-year WR had the fourth-most looks of any receiver from his QB last year (156) after the team shipped Amari Cooper off to Cleveland. Lamb’s ability to earn volume is up there with the best. But here’s where he separates from the competition (and I’m not just talking about defenders).
Lamb has seven games with ten or more receptions. Two receivers (Ja’Marr Chase and Keenan Allen) hold the next-closest mark at four games. And Hill, the guy with more weeks at more attempts, has three.
Rostering Lamb in single-week contests should be a part of anyone’s first approach to roster construction for the weekend. But over the last month, WR1s have had volatile results against the Packers.
- DJ Moore: 6-64-0
- Justin Jefferson: 10-59-0
- Adam Thielen: 8-94-0
- Chris Godwin: 10-155-0
The positive spin is the best performances have been from the guys who run a hefty amount of their routes from the interior. Godwin (39.6% slot rate) and Thielen (43.6%) had the most success versus Green Bay’s nickel and safety personnel. Jefferson (28.8%) and Moore (17.1%) faced more press coverage along the perimeter, creating more contested-catch situations.
Lamb has averaged a 45.6% snap rate from the inside over his last four games. With his ridiculous 35.5% target share, he’ll be a favorite amongst drafters this weekend. Between him and Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys’ passing game will keep the Packers on their toes throughout the game.
