Super Wild Card Weekend Rankings & Tiers. Isiah Pacheco Offers RB1 Potential.
It is time to make those tough fantasy football lineup decisions for Super Wild Card Weekend.
Below, you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, team totals and spreads for every game on the slate.
Notes:
- Players are now tiered across all positions (RB, WR and TE) to help with flex decisions in larger formats. Because of this, TEs might not have a player deserving of Tier 1 compared to RBs and WRs.
- Defensive yards and TDs allowed exclude overtime play.
- All references to defensive ranks are for this week (bye Week teams excluded).
Last updated: 4:30 p.m. ET Jan. 11. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!
Quarterback Rankings & Tiers - Super Wild Card
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | GB | 29.00 | -7.5 | 20.7 |
| 2 | 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | PIT | 22.75 | -10.0 | 24.2 |
| 3 | 1 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | TB | 23.50 | -3.0 | 22.4 |
| 4 | 2 | Joe Flacco | CLE | QB | HOU | 23.50 | -2.5 | 21.9 |
| 5 | 2 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | LAR | 27.25 | -3.0 | 17.9 |
| 6 | 2 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | DET | 24.25 | 3.0 | 16.7 |
| 7 | 2 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | MIA | 24.00 | -4.5 | 18.8 |
| 8 | 3 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | CLE | 21.00 | 2.5 | 19.1 |
| 9 | 3 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | DAL | 21.50 | 7.5 | 19.6 |
| 10 | 4 | Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | PHI | 20.50 | 3.0 | 16.8 |
| 11 | 4 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | KC | 19.50 | 4.5 | 17.4 |
| 12 | 5 | Mason Rudolph | PIT | QB | BUF | 12.75 | 10.0 | 10.4 |
Running Back Rankings & Tiers - Super Wild Card
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
| 1 | 1 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | DET | 24.25 | 3.0 | 20.1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rachaad White | TB | RB | PHI | 20.50 | 3.0 | 14.1 |
| 3 | 2 | Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | MIA | 24.00 | -4.5 | 13.9 |
| 4 | 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | LAR | 27.25 | -3.0 | 14.5 |
| 5 | 2 | Aaron Jones | GB | RB | DAL | 21.50 | 7.5 | 11.0 |
| 6 | 2 | Tony Pollard | DAL | RB | GB | 29.00 | -7.5 | 11.5 |
| 7 | 2 | James Cook | BUF | RB | PIT | 22.75 | -10.0 | 12.6 |
| 8 | 2 | De'Von Achane | MIA | RB | KC | 19.50 | 4.5 | 16.3 |
| 9 | 3 | Devin Singletary | HOU | RB | CLE | 21.00 | 2.5 | 9.0 |
| 10 | 3 | Raheem Mostert | MIA | RB | KC | 19.50 | 4.5 | 17.1 |
| 11 | 3 | David Montgomery | DET | RB | LAR | 27.25 | -3.0 | 14.2 |
| 12 | 4 | Najee Harris | PIT | RB | BUF | 12.75 | 10.0 | 10.8 |
| 13 | 4 | D'Andre Swift | PHI | RB | TB | 23.50 | -3.0 | 11.4 |
| 14 | 4 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | BUF | 12.75 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| 15 | 4 | Jerome Ford | CLE | RB | HOU | 23.50 | -2.5 | 11.1 |
| 16 | 5 | Kareem Hunt | CLE | RB | HOU | 23.50 | -2.5 | 7.4 |
| 17 | 5 | Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | RB | TB | 23.50 | -3.0 | 5.1 |
| 18 | 5 | AJ Dillon | GB | RB | DAL | 21.50 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| 19 | 5 | Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | GB | 29.00 | -7.5 | 5.2 |
| 20 | 6 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | MIA | 24.00 | -4.5 | 4.1 |
| 21 | 6 | Chase Edmonds | TB | RB | PHI | 20.50 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| 22 | 6 | Leonard Fournette | BUF | RB | PIT | 22.75 | -10.0 | 2.0 |
| 23 | 6 | Jeff Wilson Jr. | MIA | RB | KC | 19.50 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 24 | 7 | Dameon Pierce | HOU | RB | CLE | 21.00 | 2.5 | 5.4 |
| 25 | 7 | Ronnie Rivers | LAR | RB | DET | 24.25 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| 26 | 7 | Pierre Strong Jr. | CLE | RB | HOU | 23.50 | -2.5 | 3.1 |
| 27 | 9 | Patrick Taylor | GB | RB | DAL | 21.50 | 7.5 | 2.2 |
| 28 | 9 | Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | RB | CLE | 21.00 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 29 | 9 | Boston Scott | PHI | RB | TB | 23.50 | -3.0 | 1.4 |
| 30 | 9 | Latavius Murray | BUF | RB | PIT | 22.75 | -10.0 | 4.7 |
Tier 2 – Isiah Pacheco
Over the first eight weeks of the season, Pacheco played 54% of the Chiefs snaps and accounted for 57% of the rushing attempts. However, that has picked up down the stretch as the Chiefs completely turned over the backfield to the former Round 7 NFL Draft pick. Over his last six games, Pacheco has a 71% snap share and has bogarted 78% of the rushing attempts.
While those are substantial numbers, Pacheco’s evolution as a passing-down option has unlocked his RB1 potential. With Jerick McKinnon sidelined in Weeks 12, 16 and 17, the second-year back handled 100% of the two-minute offense and enjoyed target shares of 16%, 13% and 26%. Over those three games, he averaged 23 fantasy points.
This weekend, Pacheco faces a Miami defense that has lost Jaelen Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Jerome Baker since Thanksgiving. The team will also be without the replacements for Phillips and Chubb — Cameron Goode (IR) and Andrew Van Ginkel.
The Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites in a game where weather could impact playcalling tendencies. The forecast calls for a temperature of 10 degrees at kickoff. Look for Pacheco to get as much work as he can handle, including work in the passing game.
One of my favorite bets over at DraftKings is over 3.5 receptions (-110) — a number he has beaten in every game without McKinnon.
Pacheco is a SMASH play this weekend as my No. 6 player overall and RB3.
Tier 2 – Tony Pollard
Pollard broke his cold streak of three games without scoring over eight points with a 17-point outing against the Commanders in Week 18. His efficiency has taken a major step backward this year, but the utilization has remained consistent, and in a better game script, it was a get-right game.
This weekend, the Cowboys offer the second-highest spread on the slate, suggesting it could be another friendly spot for the 26-year-old RB.
Only the Rams-Lions matchup offers a higher game total, and Dallas boasts the highest team total on the slate at 29 points. Against a Packers defense giving up the fifth-most rushing yards (128) per contest, Pollard has access to a near-perfect game environment based on Vegas odds. He hasn’t always come through in these spots this season but 80-plus scrimmage yards and a TD is within the reasonable range of outcomes.
I am slightly below market consensus on Pollard this week, but he is still my RB6 and a top-15 option on the slate.
Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers - Super Wild Card
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
| 1 | 1 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | GB | 29.00 | -7.5 | 19.9 |
| 2 | 1 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | KC | 19.50 | 4.5 | 19.9 |
| 3 | 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | LAR | 27.25 | -3.0 | 17.1 |
| 4 | 2 | Amari Cooper | CLE | WR | HOU | 23.50 | -2.5 | 12.7 |
| 5 | 2 | Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | DET | 24.25 | 3.0 | 14.5 |
| 6 | 2 | Rashee Rice | KC | WR | MIA | 24.00 | -4.5 | 10.9 |
| 7 | 2 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | PHI | 20.50 | 3.0 | 14.3 |
| 8 | 2 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | TB | 23.50 | -3.0 | 14.2 |
| 9 | 3 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | PIT | 22.75 | -10.0 | 13.0 |
| 10 | 3 | Nico Collins | HOU | WR | CLE | 21.00 | 2.5 | 14.6 |
| 11 | 3 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | WR | DET | 24.25 | 3.0 | 11.1 |
| 12 | 3 | Chris Godwin | TB | WR | PHI | 20.50 | 3.0 | 9.7 |
| 13 | 3 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | KC | 19.50 | 4.5 | 11.6 |
| 14 | 3 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | TB | 23.50 | -3.0 | 11.8 |
| 15 | 3 | Jayden Reed | GB | WR | DAL | 21.50 | 7.5 | 11.5 |
| 16 | 4 | George Pickens | PIT | WR | BUF | 12.75 | 10.0 | 10.4 |
| 17 | 4 | Demarcus Robinson | LAR | WR | DET | 24.25 | 3.0 | 5.9 |
| 18 | 4 | Brandin Cooks | DAL | WR | GB | 29.00 | -7.5 | 9.0 |
| 19 | 4 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | BUF | 12.75 | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| 20 | 4 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | DAL | 21.50 | 7.5 | 9.7 |
| 21 | 4 | Noah Brown | HOU | WR | CLE | 21.00 | 2.5 | 8.5 |
| 22 | 4 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | LAR | 27.25 | -3.0 | 5.7 |
| 23 | 5 | Elijah Moore | CLE | WR | HOU | 23.50 | -2.5 | 6.2 |
| 24 | 5 | Gabe Davis | BUF | WR | PIT | 22.75 | -10.0 | 8.2 |
| 25 | 5 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | PIT | 22.75 | -10.0 | 5.5 |
| 26 | 5 | Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | DAL | 21.50 | 7.5 | 8.5 |
| 27 | 5 | Josh Reynolds | DET | WR | LAR | 27.25 | -3.0 | 6.5 |
| 28 | 5 | Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | DAL | 21.50 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| 29 | 5 | Trey Palmer | TB | WR | PHI | 20.50 | 3.0 | 4.6 |
| 30 | 5 | Cedric Tillman | CLE | WR | HOU | 23.50 | -2.5 | 2.4 |
| 31 | 6 | Bo Melton | GB | WR | DAL | 21.50 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| 32 | 6 | Robert Woods | HOU | WR | CLE | 21.00 | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| 33 | 6 | Justin Watson | KC | WR | MIA | 24.00 | -4.5 | 4.7 |
| 34 | 6 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | MIA | 24.00 | -4.5 | 3.0 |
| 35 | 6 | Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | GB | 29.00 | -7.5 | 4.2 |
| 36 | 7 | Kadarius Toney | KC | WR | MIA | 24.00 | -4.5 | 3.0 |
| 37 | 7 | Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | GB | 29.00 | -7.5 | 2.9 |
| 38 | 7 | Julio Jones | PHI | WR | TB | 23.50 | -3.0 | 2.8 |
| 39 | 7 | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | MIA | WR | KC | 19.50 | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| 40 | 7 | Trent Sherfield | BUF | WR | PIT | 22.75 | -10.0 | 1.2 |
| 41 | 7 | Richie James Jr. | KC | WR | MIA | 24.00 | -4.5 | 0.0 |
| 42 | 7 | Allen Robinson II | PIT | WR | BUF | 12.75 | 10.0 | 2.6 |
| 43 | 8 | Mecole Hardman Jr. | KC | WR | MIA | 24.00 | -4.5 | 2.0 |
| 44 | 8 | John Metchie III | HOU | WR | CLE | 21.00 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 45 | 8 | Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | DET | 24.25 | 3.0 | 5.6 |
| 46 | 8 | Braxton Berrios | MIA | WR | KC | 19.50 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| 47 | 8 | Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | CLE | 21.00 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 48 | 8 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | DET | WR | LAR | 27.25 | -3.0 | 1.5 |
| 49 | 8 | Olamide Zaccheaus | PHI | WR | TB | 23.50 | -3.0 | 1.8 |
| 50 | 8 | Quez Watkins | PHI | WR | TB | 23.50 | -3.0 | 3.1 |
| 51 | 8 | KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | GB | 29.00 | -7.5 | 3.4 |
| 52 | 9 | Deonte Harty | BUF | WR | PIT | 22.75 | -10.0 | 1.8 |
| 53 | 9 | David Bell | CLE | WR | HOU | 23.50 | -2.5 | 2.8 |
| 54 | 9 | Malik Heath | GB | WR | DAL | 21.50 | 7.5 | 2.0 |
| 55 | 9 | Justyn Ross | KC | WR | MIA | 24.00 | -4.5 | 0.8 |
| 56 | 9 | David Moore | TB | WR | PHI | 20.50 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| 57 | 9 | Calvin Austin III | PIT | WR | BUF | 12.75 | 10.0 | 2.6 |
Tier 2 – Amari Cooper
In three full games with Joe Flacco, Cooper has averaged 12.3 targets (29%) and 192 air yards (48%) on his way to an astronomical 28.9 fantasy points per contest. Whoa.
The ninth-year veteran didn’t suit up over the season's final two games due to a heel injury, but Cooper indicated that he is ready to go this weekend — despite sitting out practice on Wednesday.
Since Flacco took over the starting job, the Browns have been a pass-heavy operation with a 5% dropback rate over expectation (DBOE). That trend is likely to continue. The Texans have been stingy against the run, allowing the sixth-fewest yards per contest (97), but teams have found passing much more manageable. Houston ranks 25th against the pass, allowing 255 yards per contest. In Week 16, Cooper roasted the Texans secondary for 265 yards and two TDs, corralling 11 of 15 targets.
Cooper is a SMASH play on Super Wild Card Weekend, ranking in my top eight players – seven spots ahead of industry consensus.
Tier 3 – Cooper Kupp
With Puka Nacua providing immense target competition, Kupp’s fantasy value has taken a hit. He is no longer an undisputed high-end WR1. However, he has managed to remain fantasy-relevant. Since returning to health in Week 13, Kupp has averaged 18.2 points per game with a 26% target share.
Over the last five games, the 30-year-old WR averages 8.6 targets and 53 air yards per contest, putting him in mid-range WR2 territory based on the previous 12 seasons of data.
The average finish for his comp group was WR18, with 14.8 points per contest.
Dec 31, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) catches a touchdown pass against New York Giants cornerback Nick McCloud (44) during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Ultimately, Kupp looks like what we would expect from a good slot WR that doesn’t get EVERY target in an offense. Here are some of the comps:
- Anquan Boldin (2015)
- Chris Godwin (2021, 2022)
- Cooper Kupp (2019)
- Golden Tate (2014, 2016)
- Jaylen Waddle (2021)
- Michael Thomas (2016)
After a week of rest, Kupp gets a juicy matchup against a Lions secondary coughing up the fourth-most yards (268) and the sixth-most TDs (1.6) receiving per contest. The Lions have deployed man coverage the third-most over the last three games, and Kupp has a juicy 33% TPRR against man, leading the team. Expect plenty of reps against rookie slot corner Brian Branch — who has allowed five passing TDs this year.
The Rams-Lions matchup carries the highest game total on the slate (51.5) from the comfort of dome conditions at Ford Field. On a slate where three out of six matchups have potential weather concerns, that is a plus for Kupp & Co.
Kupp is my WR11 for the Super Wild Card round.
Tier 3 – Chris Godwin
Since Week 14, Godwin has re-emerged as a significant factor in the Buccaneers' offense with a 29% target share, averaging 15.8 fantasy points per contest — up from 21% and 10.8 over the first 12 games. Over the five-game stretch, Godwin has been the top option in Tampa Bay.
Godwin has been a target magnet for Baker Mayfield on third and fourth downs with a 38% target share, and the two veterans have found their groove with 77% of Godwin’s targets deemed catchable per PFF data.
The 27-year-old WR hasn’t earned the end zone targets (7%), with Mike Evans still leading the way, but those can fluctuate. We should expect Evans to lead, but there is room for improvement for Godwin, given his gaudy target share.
Both Tampa Bay receivers are great plays against an Eagles defense, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards (268) and the second-most TDs (2.1) per game. No other team allows more fantasy points to opposing WRs than Philadelphia.
At $6,200 on DraftKings, Godwin is one of my favorite plays if you are playing the full weekend slate. This game offers 100-plus yards and multiple-TD potential for Godwin and Evans, and both are priced nicely at $6,200 and $6,900, respectively.
Godwin is a SMASH play as my WR12 this weekend.
Tier 4 – Jameson Williams and Josh Reynolds
Sam LaPorta will either be inactive or playing at far less than 100% this weekend against the Rams. With Kalif Raymond also unlikely to play, that means Williams and Reynolds have the opportunity to step into larger roles.
If we isolate to data since Week 11, when Williams became a top-three WR in the rotation, the second-year WR has a slight edge over Reynolds in most utilization categories outside of playing time.
Both WRs offer spike-week potential in a potential shootout matchup against the Rams, but I lean slightly toward the Lions’ former first-rounder in Williams. The Lions carry the second-highest team total (27.25) on the slate, so Vegas isn’t concerned about the LaPorta injury spiking the upside of the offense.
Williams’ receiving prop is currently at 36.5 yards on DraftKings – a number he has beaten in 71% of games since taking on a larger role in Week 11.
I have Williams projected for 45 yards, but that is with the conservative assumption that LaPorta plays but earns fewer targets. If LaPorta is out, Williams will get a bump.
Williams comes in 10 spots ahead of industry consensus in my flex rankings as my No. 42 player, while Reynolds is six spots ahead of industry at No. 49.
Tight End Rankings & Tiers - Super Wild Card
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | David Njoku | CLE | TE | HOU | 23.5 | -2.5 | 10.3 |
| 2 | 3 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | MIA | 24.0 | -4.5 | 11.7 |
| 3 | 4 | Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | GB | 29.0 | -7.5 | 8.3 |
| 4 | 4 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | TB | 23.5 | -3.0 | 7.6 |
| 5 | 4 | Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | CLE | 21.0 | 2.5 | 8.2 |
| 6 | 4 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | PIT | 22.8 | -10.0 | 7.2 |
| 7 | 5 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | DET | 24.3 | 3.0 | 5.7 |
| 8 | 5 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | BUF | 12.8 | 10.0 | 4.9 |
| 9 | 6 | Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | DAL | 21.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 |
| 10 | 6 | Cade Otton | TB | TE | PHI | 20.5 | 3.0 | 5.5 |
| 11 | 7 | Brock Wright | DET | TE | LAR | 27.3 | -3.0 | 1.5 |
| 12 | 7 | Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | DAL | 21.5 | 7.5 | 5.3 |
| 13 | 7 | Durham Smythe | MIA | TE | KC | 19.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 14 | 7 | Noah Gray | KC | TE | MIA | 24.0 | -4.5 | 3.3 |
| 15 | 7 | Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | PIT | 22.8 | -10.0 | 3.5 |
| 16 | 8 | James Mitchell | DET | TE | LAR | 27.3 | -3.0 | 0.3 |
| 17 | 8 | Brevin Jordan | HOU | TE | CLE | 21.0 | 2.5 | 3.3 |
| 18 | 9 | Davis Allen | LAR | TE | DET | 24.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 19 | 9 | Harrison Bryant | CLE | TE | HOU | 23.5 | -2.5 | 2.0 |
Reminder: I have leveled my tiers across RB, WR and TE to help with flex lineup decisions. So, getting to Tier 1 is hard — often, Tier 2 is where you will find my highest-ranked TE.
Tier 4 – Dallas Goedert
Since returning to the lineup in Week 14, Goedert has been impressive with an elite 90% route participation and 24% target share, excluding Week 18, when the starters rested in the second half. Over that stretch, he has averaged 11 fantasy points with two top-eight finishes.
This weekend, we could see even more from the sixth-year TE with A.J. Brown battling a knee injury. His success will hinge on the ability of Jalen Hurts to play through an injury to his middle finger on his throwing hand.
If Hurts’ finger is an issue, we could see more throws underneath, which is where Goedert has lived with a 5.5 aDOT this year. Against the third-worst defense against TEs, that could be enough to push Goedert to a strong performance.
Goedert is currently my TE4 on the slate, but he will move ahead of Jake Ferguson if Brown doesn’t practice.
