The Bucs weren't expected to accomplish much of anything in 2023 without the services of Tom Brady under center. While the 9-8 regular season in the dismal NFC South wasn't exactly anything to write home about, they surprised with a dominant Wild Card victory over the defending NFC Champion Eagles before putting forward a solid enough showing in a 31-23 Divisional Round loss to the Lions.

That postseason success is a big reason why this team is suddenly in the business of trying to compete instead of tearing the roster down. A quick overview of all the Buccaneers' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

  • Head coach: Todd Bowles (17-17 in 2 seasons with the Buccaneers)
  • Offensive coordinator: Liam Coen (61.4%% pass-play rate as Rams OC in 2022, 15th)
  • Offseason arrivals: None
  • Offseason departures: WR Russell Gage (free agent), WR David Moore (Panthers)
  • Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Washington WR Jalen McMillan (3.92), Oregon RB Bucky Irving (4.125), Washington TE Devin Culp (7.246)
  • Reigning PFF O-line rank and returning starters: No. 13, 4/5

The addition of Duke OL Graham Barton with the 26th overall pick of the draft should only help an offense that shined fairly bright for portions of last season. Of course, the group's 2024 success will largely ride or die based on how their franchise QB follows up his rather good comeback campaign.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Last season Mayfield won a preseason QB battle over Trask and proceeded to set career-high marks in passing yards (4,044) and TDs (28) during a mostly solid regular season. Things really clicked in the playoffs, as Mayfield posted 337-3-0 and 349-3-2 passing lines in a pair of spirited performances.

Fun fact: Only Patrick Mahomes (7) and Josh Allen (4) have more playoff games with three-plus passing TDs than Mayfield (3) over the past five years.

Counting numbers aside, Mayfield really did work as anyone's idea of an above-average NFL QB last season:

Among 39 QBs with 200-plus dropbacks in 2023-24 (including postseason):

  • EPA per dropback: +0.137 (No. 9)
  • Completion percentage over expected: -0.2% (No. 22)
  • PFF pass grade: 74.8 (No. 18)
  • Passer rating: 96 (No. 12)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.4 (No. 12)

Remember: It’s not like Mayfield has simply always “sucked.” He owned the rookie passing TD record (27) before Justin Herbert (31) came along. There’s also something to be said about leading the Browns to their first playoff victory in *checks notes* 26 years. Obviously, things went south in 2021 and beyond; just realize playing through a torn shoulder labrum didn’t exactly make life easy in an organization that hasn’t exactly earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to developing high-end QBs (other than Joe Flacco, of course).

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Jan 21, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) prepares for a snap against the Detroit Lions during the second half in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Here's the thing: Last season's Cinderella story still only led to Mayfield working as the QB17 in fantasy points per game. He was out-scored by guys like Russell Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, and Matthew Stafford among others; there's always going to be a bit of a low ceiling here in fantasy land due to the reality that Mayfield has never made a habit of taking off and picking up yards on the ground.

There's also the potential problem of offensive coordinator Dave Canales taking his talents to the Panthers. While Mayfield and new OC Liam Coen presumably got along just fine during their brief stint together with the Rams, the ex-Kentucky OC hasn't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt at the professional level and shouldn't necessarily be expected to replicate the sort of witchcraft that helped Canales turn around the careers of both Mayfield and Geno Smith.

I'm not here to rewrite Mayfield's largely great 2023 season, but there is a case to be made that he got a bit lucky in the turnover department. No QB had a larger difference in turnover-worthy plays (24) and actual turnovers (13) than Mayfield last season. We'd be looking at the campaign quite a bit differently had the Bucs not managed to squeak by the Panthers 9-0 in Week 18 to earn a pair of admittedly golden postseason matchups for their passing attack to take advantage of.

Will continuity with the Bucs and the return of most key parties involved in the league's reigning 20th-ranked scoring offense lead to a superior boom than what we saw last season? I'm not so sure it will.

Bottom line: It's hard to argue Mayfield's standing as a top-20 or so QB on the planet at this point, but that doesn't mean we should necessarily expect 2024 to be a step forward from what we saw last season. There's nothing wrong with his QB23, pick 169.5 ADP, but I'd much rather throw a higher upside dart on guys like Deshaun Watson (QB21) or Will Levis (QB24) in that range unless already working with a lineup that has Mike Evans in it.

Running Back

Any conversation surrounding White's value in fantasy land needs to break down the difference between what he brings to the table as a rusher vs. as a receiver.

As a rusher, life wasn't too good for White. Actually, it was quite horrific. We're talking about one of the league's single-least-efficient runners of the football here.

White among 49 RBs with 100-plus carries in 2023:

  • PFF rushing grade: 66.7 (No. 43)
  • Yards per carry: 3.6 (No. 40)
  • Yards over expected per carry: -0.41 (No. 44)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.5 (No. 42)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.14 (tied for No. 35)
  • Explosive rush rate: 8% (No. 38)

Basically the only really good thing one can write home about regarding White as a rusher was the fact that just 13.2% of his carries went for a loss or no gain—a mark only bested by Kyren Williams, David Montgomery, James Cook, and Gus Edwards.

It's also true that this offensive line hasn't helped much in the rushing department in recent years. The Bucs have ranked 26th and 31st over the past two seasons in rushing yards before contact per attempt, and only the Giants, Jaguars and Chargers had a worse PFF team run-blocking grade in 2023.

Moral of the story: White has been brutal running the football, but the Bucs also haven't done him many (any?) favors, and it's tough to be too critical considering none of the team's other RBs have fared any better with their opportunities on the ground.

And then we have White the receiver. This is where the 25-year-old talent shines: White's understanding of space and leverage immediately pops out when grinding the ole film, as he did a great job regularly making the most out of his opportunities with screens and check-downs during the 2023 season.

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Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) fends off Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Avonte Maddox (29) during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Nobody is saying White is necessarily CMC-good in this aspect of the game, but it's certainly a strength:

  • White ranked sixth among 47 qualified RBs in yards per reception (8.6), yards after the catch per reception (9.6), and passer rating when targeted (113.6) in 2023.
  • ESPN's receiver rating dubbed White as the league's second-best pass-catching RB behind only Christian McCaffrey. He ranked sixth, thirteenth, and fifth in Open, Catch, and YAC scores—the three components that make up their ratings.

This facet took White from good to great in fantasy land. Overall, only Alvin Kamara (56%), Breece Hall (55%), Ezekiel Elliott (53%), Austin Ekeler (52%), and Bijan Robinson (52%) had a higher percentage of their fantasy production come through the air than White (50%) among last season's top 36 RBs in PPR points per game. Only McCaffrey and Hall racked up more total fantasy points from receiving than White on the season.

Surprisingly, the Bucs ranked outside the league's top 20 offenses in screens, while Mayfield's nine-yard average target depth was a top-10 mark in the NFL. Translation: There might actually be room for White's receiving production to grow inside this potential new-look passing game … if he can hold off some new competition.

Enter: Bucky Irving, who scored more PPR points per game from purely receiving production (7) during the 2022-23 seasons than any other prominent RB in his draft class. The pass-catching prowess and elusiveness at hand are a large part of why Irving was considered a dark horse by some to be one of the draft's first backs selected.

Fantasy Life's Jonathan Fuller has a great breakdown on everything that Irving brings to the table, but it was his cautionary notes about said pass-game skills that have me questioning just how much competition the fourth-round pick is really bringing to the table:

"After having watched a decent amount of his college touches, I would describe Irving as more of a reliable receiving back rather than a dynamic one. He doesn’t appear to be a great route runner, and most of his receiving work came on dump-offs and screen passes. And in 27 games at Oregon, Irving had a negative average depth of target (aDOT) in 20 of those games and only eclipsed a 1.0 aDOT in five of those contests.

Irving could be a solid pass-catching RB at the pro level, but I struggle to see him becoming great in the receiving game. He's more of an accumulator rather than a true difference-maker in the passing game. And while that type of role can definitely have value for an NFL team, I don’t expect coaches to make it a priority to get him the ball. Finally, Irving isn’t a great pass protector yet, so that could also limit his ability to earn snaps on passing downs early in his career."

That sort of profile doesn't exactly strike me as the type of player ready to take White off the field in the area of the game in which he excels the most. If anything, Irving looks more like direct competition to backups Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker, who combined for just 80 total touches behind White last season.

Bottom line: The PPR RB12 in Fantasy Life projections, White is once again shaping up as the sort of inefficient, volume-driven RB who doesn't feel great to draft, but is also difficult to keep out of the position's top 12 options on a weekly basis. While last year's performance now has him sitting pretty in the Round 5-6 range, I'm still a fan of buying at this price in drafts when I've focused on WR and perhaps a QB and/or TE early. 

Raw yards per carry numbers tend to be one of the least important fantasy factors; don't be afraid to pick up a proven workhorse in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. I'm not a huge fan of Irving even at his reduced cost due to the murkiness surrounding whether or not Tampa, 1.) Views him as their ready-to-go No. 2 RB, and 2.) Would be willing to give him a three-down role if something happened to White.

Wide Receiver

Evans has gone a perfect 10-for-10 in logging 1,000-yard seasons since joining the Buccaneers in 2014, and neither his 2023 film nor his underlying efficiency numbers (2.23 yards per route run, 12th among 80 qualified WRs) showed any real signs of decline.

The reigning WR10 in PPR points per game proved capable of supplying week-winning booms as much as pretty much anybody at the position in 2023.

WR most games with 25+ PPR points

  1. Tyreek Hill (9)
  2. CeeDee Lamb (8)
  3. Mike Evans (5)

And that doesn't even include Evans' breathtaking 8-147-1 explosion against the Lions in the Divisional Round.

Of course, Father Time is undefeated and Evans does turn 31 in August. There simply haven't been many WRs who have continued to post top-12 fantasy numbers into their 30s in recent history, but then again the likely future Hall of Famer isn't like most receivers.

And then there's Godwin, who hasn't quite looked like the same beast since his season-ending 2021 knee injury:

Godwin yards per route run by season:

  • 2017: 2.03 (12th among all WRs with 50+ targets)
  • 2018: 1.86 (No. 25)
  • 2019: 2.24 (No. 9)
  • 2020: 1.94 (tied for No. 25)
  • 2021: 1.97 (No. 15)
  • 2022: 1.76 (No. 32)
  • 2023: 1.82 (No. 33)

The word out of Bucs camp is that Godwin will be playing more in the slot this season. This comes after he played far more of his snaps out wide (588) than inside (295) for the first time since 2018. The veteran receiver certainly looked more comfortable in the slot (2.95 yards per route run) than he was elsewhere (1.86) in 2023.

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Dec 31, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) catches a pass for a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Could last season's lack of high-end counting numbers have been more bad luck than anything? Godwin did receive a five-year low catchable pass rating (73%), and watching the ole all-22 from last season did reveal a handful of near-miss TDs that could have resulted in six points with a better pass. Overall, Godwin caught just *one* of 10 end zone targets last season—his 10% conversion rate was tied with Odell Beckham Jr. for the worst mark among 52 qualified WRs in 2023.

The final spot in three WR sets will belong to either second-year field-stretcher Trey Palmer or third-round pick Jalen McMillan (with all due respect to Baker's old Oklahoma friend Sterling Shepard). The former speedster figures to have a home on the outside when the goal is to get Godwin to eat from the slot, while the latter rookie spent 67% of his snaps during his final three collegiate seasons out of the slot. A rotation of some sort seems likely.

Bottom line: Evans remains a staple in the position's top 20 options fresh off his most productive season in half a decade. His boom-or-bust-esque vibe does make him someone I prefer more in best ball, but make no mistake about it: The $52 million man once again possesses double-digit TD upside as the Buccaneers' alpha No. 1 WR. 

I'm less inclined to bet too heavily on Godwin at his borderline WR3 ADP outside of full-PPR formats due to the presence of higher-upside rookies in that range as well as the reality that this no longer looks like the sort of 1.A/1.B situation that it often was with TB12 under center. This doesn't look like the sort of passing game to bet too heavily on the other options, particularly with McMillan's rookie Super Model score paling in comparison to his peers. Then again, the rookie has earned some early rave reviews and probably doesn't deserve to be ignored as a day two pick.

Tight End

Otton played a near-every-down role for this offense in 2023, posting a snap rate north of 91% in each and every game … and he finished as the TE24 in PPR points per game. Now, accounting for both of his awesome performances in the playoffs (8-89-0, 5-65-1) would have ranked him TE17 behind Kyle Pitts (lol), but mid-range TE2 status still isn't the most appealing fantasy asset in the world.

Sadly, the Bucs just never made a habit of overly involving Otton near the end zone last season. Both Godwin (9) and Evans (8) easily out-paced Otton (5) in terms of targets inside the 10-yard line. Hell, the duo combined for 31 end-zone targets compared to just eight for the veteran TE.

Otton isn't a terrible football player, but it's rare to see someone receive this big of a snap-to-snap role without more willingness to, you know, get them the football. Still, the Bucs' lack of offseason attention to the position sure makes it look like this usage will persist into 2024.

Bottom line: Nobody should be looking to start Otton in Week 1 with a smile on their face in fantasy land, but his current standing as the TE21 (pick 175.9) certainly seems a bit harsh. Is there really that much of a difference between Otton and guys like Pat Freiermuth and Cole Kmet going 30-plus picks earlier? The boring, yet solid, third-year TE is one of the better LATE-round picks at the position this season and represents a cheap addition to best ball lineups that need another option or two at the position.

Buccaneers 2024 Season Prediction

While the Bucs managed to keep stud S Antoine Winfield Jr. and long-time leader LB Lavonte David in free agency, stalwarts like CB Carlton Davis, EDGE Shaq Barrett, and LB Devin White found new homes. Maybe rookie second- and third-round picks LB Chris Braswell and Tykee Smith prove ready to fill holes in a hurry—they'll need to be in order for the league's reigning seventh-ranked scoring defense to keep on keeping on.

Vegas isn't buying Tampa Bay as a serious contender despite last season's success, and you know what, I'm not either. Best of luck to Baker and company with navigating this potentially drastically improved division and first-place schedule. Give me under 7.5 wins for an aging roster that seemed content to reward past production instead of paying for future goodness throughout the offseason.

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