The Titans won at least nine games in six consecutive seasons from 2016 to 2021. This included back-to-back AFC South titles in 2020 and 2021. In short, the trio of Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown was a helluva drug for the Music City to soak in over the years.

Sadly, those days have since passed. Tennessee's 7-10 and 6-11 records over the past two seasons culminated with longtime head coach Mike Vrabel getting axed, making 2024 truly the start of a new era for an organization still searching for their first Super Bowl title.

Naturally, this front office made more than a few big changes to the status quo while hitting reset on this roster. Here's a quick overview of all the Titans' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

  • Head coach: Brian Callahan (first-year head coach, formerly Bengals offensive coordinator from 2019 to 2023)
  • Offensive coordinator: Nick Holz (63.8% pass-play rate as Jaguars pass-game coordinator in 2023, 8th)
  • Offseason arrivals: WR Calvin Ridley (four years, $92 million), RB Tony Pollard (three years, $21.8 million), QB Mason Rudolph (one year, $2.9 million), WR Tyler Boyd (one year, $2.4 million), and TE Nick Vannett (one year, $1.1 million)
  • Offseason departures: RB Derrick Henry (Ravens), QB Ryan Tannehill (free agent), WR Chris Moore (Cardinals), and TE Trevon Wesco (free agent)
  • Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Tulane WR Jha'Quan Jackson (6.182)
  • Reigning Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive line rank and returning starters: No. 32, 2/5

Here's to hoping that the decision to draft Alabama OL J.C. Latham (1.07) and throw bags of cash at former Broncos C Lloyd Cushenberry will give this offense a better chance at winning at the line of scrimmage in 2024. That would certainly go a long way towards helping figure out whether or not the Titans have their long-term answer at QB in Will Levis.

Tennessee Titans Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Levis showed some flashes last season, most notably when he threw four TDs in his NFL debut…but then he only threw four additional TDs across his next eight starts combined.

There were other solid performances (the Miami game stands out), but most advanced metrics still tell us that Levis was a fairly mediocre QB. Here's how he ranked among 48 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks in 2023:

  • EPA per dropback: -0.033 (No. 31)
  • Completion percentage over expected: -0.4% (No. 26)
  • PFF pass grade: 61.6 (No. 32)
  • Passer rating: 84.2 (No. 30)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.1 (No. 21)

Of course, Levis's playing style still made the lows a pretty fun time as far as fantasy was concerned. His scrambles were generally more likely to end in a John Elway-esque leap than a slide.

I made a largely meaningless but fun stat meant to quantify the "fun for better or worse" nature of Levis's game called “Crazy Sh*t”. This metric takes the sum of a QB's big-time throw rate and turnover-worthy play rate to see who consistently produces the craziest sh*t on a per dropback basis. Here are the top-ranked QBs in crazy sh*t from the past five years:

  • 2023: Will Levis (10.4%)
  • 2022: Josh Allen (11.4%)
  • 2021: Kyler Murray (10.2%)
  • 2020: Drew Lock (10.9%)
  • 2019: Jameis Winston (10.0%)

Okay, back to the main point of this preview: Is there reason to believe that Levis's boom-or-bust style of play could provide more fantasy-friendly fireworks on a better overall offense in 2024? After all, this was an average-at-best supporting cast last season, and Tennessee did use some serious resources to address both the offensive line and the WR room.

Will Levis

Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) dives just short of a first down with Houston Texans defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (98) tripping him up during their game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023. Photo Credit: Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

I'm hopeful overall. This Titans offense ranked 26th in both pre-snap shift/motion (44.2%) and overall pass play rate (58%) last season. Plus, only the Seahawks (58.5) averaged fewer total offensive plays per game (58.9) in 2023.

It's not a given that Brian Callahan and Nick Holz will suddenly turn Tennessee into one of the league's fastest-moving, pass-happy attacks in their first season. However, there isn't much room to go but up from last year, and the team's emphasis on adding pass-catchers this offseason sure seems to hint that a pass-first philosophy change is upon us.

At a minimum, Levis should have every chance to prove he's their guy in 2024. Kudos to Mason Rudolph for…being one of the league's most efficient QBs over the course of the final month of last season? Yeah, that actually happened, but his one-year, $2.9 million contract pales in comparison to what backup/bridge starters like Jacoby Brissett ($8 million), Marcus Mariota ($6 million), Tyrod Taylor ($6 million), Drew Lock ($5 million), Joe Flacco ($4.5 million) and Jameis Winston ($4 million) managed to get this offseason. It'd be surprising to see Rudolph start under center without an injury or major meltdown from the 2023 NFL Draft's 33rd overall pick.

Bottom line: Levis is one of fantasy's cheapest QBs (QB24 ADP, pick No. 179.2 overall) with an actual expectation to start 17 games. Fantasy Life Projections have the rising second-year talent throwing the 14th-most passes in the NFL this season, although the reality that he finished with 15 or fewer rushing yards in all but one game last year doesn't help the fantasy floor.

Obviously no fantasy teams should be actively looking to leave drafts with Levis as their QB1, but he's a cheap stacking partner with a pair of affordable veteran WRs with histories of posting top-12 WR fantasy production. I'm certainly a fan of throwing a late-round dart at Levis over guys like Bryce Young, Derek Carr, and any of the rookie QBs not named Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels.

Running Back

It wasn't that long ago that Pollard was one of the game’s single-best RBs at creating yards after contact and ripping off explosive runs. And last season, he at least proved capable of handling a career-high 307 touches and played in all 18 of the Cowboys’ regular season and playoff games. In fact, no RB scored more PPR points per game below expectation (-53.2) than Pollard in 2023, which means that he either sucked and/or was really unlucky.

Fantasy managers hoping that it's the latter can find solace in the fact that Pollard did indeed improve from Week 11 onward last year when he stated that he finally felt fully healthy:

  • Weeks 1-10:
    • 3.9 yards per carry
    • 2.7 yards after contact per carry
    • 7.4% explosive run play rate
    • 0.93 yards per route run
    • PFF’s No. 39 graded rusher
  • Weeks 11-WC:
    • 4.0 yards per carry
    • 3.0 yards after contact per carry
    • 9% explosive run play rate
    • 0.64 yards per route run
    • PFF’s No. 1 graded rusher

But looking at it again, nothing really improved all that dramatically other than Pollard’s PFF rushing grade. There’s something to be said about him perhaps getting better with his reads as the season went on, but either way, we certainly didn’t see Pollard regain his pre-2023 form down the stretch last year.

Additionally, the Titans are paying Pollard $21.8 million over the next three years, including $10.5 million guaranteed. That's starter money in the RB market, even if the history of RBs signing big free agency contracts with new teams is littered with busts. At the very least, there's little reason to believe that Pollard won't work as the lead back in 2024.

Tony Pollard

Running back Tony Pollard (20) runs through drills during the Tennessee Titans mandatory mini-camp at Ascension Saint Thomas Sports Park in Nashville, Tenn., Thursday, June 6, 2024. Photo Credit: Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Then again, it's far from a certainty that Pollard will relegate rising second-year RB Tyjae Spears to the bench. One of just three RBs to have posted PFF grades higher than 70 in rushing, receiving, and pass blocking last season, Spears is a true all-around talent who makes good things happen with the football in his hands. Only Jaylen Warren (36%) forced a missed tackle on a higher percentage of his touches than Spears (35%) last season.

And while it's not a given that the new coaching staff in Tennessee views Spears as favorably as the last one, head coach Brian Callahan's offseason comments certainly seem positive:

 “Any time we can find ways to match those guys up in the passing game on linebackers, it’s a huge benefit for us; they’re hard to cover. They can run routes like receivers, which is unique. I’ve not seen guys like them very often, and we have two of them… I’m really excited about what those guys can bring to our offense.”

Offensive coordinator Nick Holz also previously said that Pollard and Spears are "interchangeable" and "1a/1b". Fantasy Life Projections agree with this sentiment with Pollard currently projected for 166 carries to 147 for Spears, and both Titans RBs project for 41 targets each this season.

Now, neither RB will exactly be knocking on the weekly RB1 door with that sort of split, but both have the sort of three-down skill set to really take off should the other miss any time. That's not a bad deal to sign up for considering the affordable ADP cost of both Tennessee RBs in fantasy land at the moment.

Bottom line: This is one of fantasy's cheapest backfields with both Pollard (RB29 ADP, pick No. 100.4 overall) and Spears (RB34, 112.2) regularly going outside of the top 100 overall picks. This makes both a zero/hero-RB drafter's dream, as the top-10 QBs, top-50 WRs, and top-10 TEs are regularly off the board by the time they pop up at the top of the queue.

Neither RB exactly profiles as someone you're going to be dying to start come Week 1, but each gets a boost in full-PPR formats, and there's more contingency upside here than in most backfields.

Wide Receiver

  • WR1: Calvin Ridley (Fantasy Life consensus rank: WR35)
  • WR2: DeAndre Hopkins (WR36)
  • WR3: Tyler Boyd (WR89)
  • WR4: Treylon Burks (WR100)
  • WR5: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
  • WR6: Jha'Quan Jackson

Although he exploded in Week 1 with Jacksonville last year, most advanced metrics did not paint Ridley very kindly in 2023.

  • ESPN Receiver Rating: 48 (No. 66 among qualified WRs)
  • PFF Receiving Grade: 72.2 (No. 41)
  • Yards per route run (YPRR): 1.57 (No. 46)
  • Targets per route run (TPRR): 20.4% (No. 38)

The mitigating factor is that Ridley could've been dealing with some rust after having missed the previous season and a half, but realize that he’ll turn 30 years old in December and left a lot of yards and TDs on the field in 2023.

Then again, money talks, and Ridley is suddenly the NFL's seventh-highest-paid WR in terms of total contract value. Callahan certainly seems to have big plans for the ex-Falcons/Jaguars veteran:

“You’re looking at a very similar role that Ja’Marr [Chase] played, in terms of his ability to move around the formation, use him in motion. He’s got such a unique skill set. He’s got great quickness, he’s got great speed, he can run all the different routes.”

Of course, like Chase, Ridley has another top WR in the offense to contend with for targets. While Hopkins just turned 32 years old and isn't exactly in his prime, he still showed a solid ability to separate and make the occasional fantastic contested catch in 2023.

In fact, ESPN's open rating dubbed Hopkins as a top-five separator alongside Garrett Wilson and A.J. Brown last season, and the artist known as Nuk rather drastically out-performed Ridley in all those aforementioned advanced metrics. Now, Ridley (13.5, WR27) did out-produce Hopkins (13.2, WR29) in terms of PPR points per game (PPG) last year, but it's also probably worth pointing out that Trevor Lawrence was a more effective QB than what Hopkins was working with in 2023.

DeAndre Hopkins

Jan 7, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) makes a one handed catch against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Then again, both WRs were largely victims of missed opportunity. We can help quantify this through unrealized air yards. Air yards measure the distance that any given pass travels (wait for it) through the air. Subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yardage total before taking the difference with total air yards helps us pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.

Sometimes, unrealized air yards are more akin to “prayer yards” because the pass wasn’t exactly catchable in the first place. In other instances, unrealized air yards can be blamed more so on the WR. As is the case with most things in life, grinding the film helps add clarity to the situation. Just five WRs accumulated over 1,000 unrealized air yards last season:

  1. DeAndre Hopkins (1,149)
  2. Chris Olave (1,145)
  3. Davante Adams (1,091)
  4. Calvin Ridley (1,024)
  5. Garrett Wilson (1,010)

Fantasy Life Projections currently give the edge in 2024 to Hopkins in both total targets (118 vs. 107) and actual fantasy points, so it's intriguing that Ridley's ADP is currently nearly a full round ahead of that of Hopkins.

Now, both WRs are dangling off the age cliff, and it's not a given that Levis suddenly turns into one of the league's more efficient passers. Neither exactly profiles as a locked-in top-24 WR option, but it's a plus that both Ridley (WR35 ADP, pick No. 59.9 overall) and Hopkins (WR41, 71.4) are affordable depth WRs with a history of production and triple-digit target projections.

As for the rest of the Titans' WR group, there's not much to write home about. Tyler Boyd allegedly received interest from the Steelers, Chiefs, and Jets at the beginning of free agency but wound up settling for a minuscule one-year, $2.4 million deal in Nashville. The 29-year-old veteran profiles as the slot WR, much as he did with Callahan in Cincinnati. However, that role only yielded 94, 82, and 98 targets, respectively over the past three seasons, so don't expect a ton from Boyd going from Joe Burrow to Levis.

The signing of Boyd also doesn't bode well for Treylon Burks. Callahan didn't exactly give Burks a resounding endorsement this offseason and tentatively only profiles as the offense's No. 4 WR. The former first-round pick has sadly dealt with one injury after another since entering the league, so here's to hoping that Burks can finally stay healthy in 2024 to perhaps challenge Boyd for snaps.

And finally, there are the incumbent complementary WRs Kyle "One L" Philips and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who are joined by sixth-round rookie Jha'Quan Jackson. None are tentatively expected to challenge for a starting role, but their presence could perhaps limit Boyd's chances of securing a true full-time role.

Bottom line: I like going after Ridley and/or Hopkins in best ball drafts if you've missed out on an elite QB option. It's pretty easy to game-stack the Titans' Week 17 matchup with the Jaguars from there with either Levis or Lawrence.

Beyond that, I wouldn't go out of my way to land either Titans WR. The combination of target competition and old age on an unproven (to put it nicely) passing game doesn't exactly scream “must draft”. None of the other Tennessee WRs behind Hopkins and Ridley profile as fantasy-relevant options at this point, either.

Tight End

Okonkwo was a popular late-round TE last season after having made more than a few big plays as a rookie while putting up truly elite efficiency numbers. Unfortunately, that efficiency crashed back down to reality (ope, there goes gravity) in a major way in 2023 as Okonkwo posted bottom-seven marks in yards (1.31) and targets (18.4%) per route run among 24 TEs with 50-plus targets.

Of course, the Titans' aforementioned meh offensive environment didn't exactly do Okonkwo many favors, and a preseason hip injury also likely hindered his production. Still, this was a passing game that was largely dying to find a consistent No. 2 option behind Hopkins, and Okonkwo wasn't able to return anything close to consistent fantasy production despite having played a near full-time role (69% route rate) last season.

Chigoziem Okonkwo

Jan 7, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo (85) stiff arms Jacksonville Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins (2) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

The potential bull case for Okonkwo in 2024 centers around the Titans' lack of offseason additions at the position, although Callahan didn't exactly make a habit of involving TEs a ton in the passing game during his time with the Bengals. Here were the expected PPR PPG from Cincinnati TEs during Callahan's tenure:

  • 2021: 7.6 (No. 31)
  • 2022: 9.0 (No. 27)
  • 2023: 10.8 (No. 20)

Bottom line: It wouldn't be surprising to see Chiggy rank outside of Tennessee's top five target earners in 2024 considering the amount of viable pass-catchers at WR and at RB. Maybe Okonkwo can solidify some target volume behind Hopkins and Ridley, but even that role wouldn't exactly boast the world's highest ceiling on a passing game with questionable efficiency from a sophomore Levis.

Okonkwo (TE24 ADP, pick No. 191.3 overall) is certainly a cheap dart throw, but I prefer guys like Noah Fant and Jonnu Smith as superior late-round targets at the TE position due to both having better and more established QB situations.

Tennessee Titans 2024 Season Prediction

The Titans attempted to shore up their secondary in free agency by throwing cash at both ex-Chiefs CB L'Jarius Sneed and ex-Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie. Add in Tennessee's decision to use three of their top four draft picks on defense, and it's reasonable to think that what was the 28th-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play in 2023 could take a step forward this year.

Still, the Titans don't exactly profile as the most complete roster on paper, but the front office did seemingly do everything in their power to field the most competitive team possible through their excess spending in free agency. I'm cautiously taking the under on 6.5 wins more so due to the AFC South suddenly looking awfully deep between the second-year QBs in Houston and Indianapolis, but my level of confidence here admittedly isn't too high. Tennessee could surprise in an unsettled division if Levis can be even competent behind an improved offensive line and with a better defense.

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